Charlie Cook says private polls still show Obama ahead in the electoral college

[Lief 🗽]

"Private conversations between Charlie Cook and top Democratic and Republican pollsters and strategists" show the following:

FL, VA, NC: "Romney ahead"
CO: Even
IA, NH: Obama +1-2
NV: Obama +3
OH, WI: Obama +4
MI, PA: Obama +5-7

http://cookpolitical.com/story/4849

[Yank2133]

If true, the OH and WI numbers are pretty bad for Mitt.

[LiberalJunkie]

it shows in public polls too. Obama would win if election day was today.

[5280]

CO is not 'even', it has a very slight lead to Romney of +0.2 when they're all averaged together with the Democrat pollsters (if it makes any difference with 0.2 lead) The chart fails to add the ARG, DenverPost/Survey USA poll and We Ask America poll.

I can't believe CO is this close in the election, what are people doing here?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/co/colorado_romney_vs_obama-2023.html

[Yank2133]

CO is not 'even', it has a very slight lead to Romney of +0.2 when they're all averaged together with the Democrat pollsters (if it makes any difference with 0.2 lead) The chart fails to add the ARG, DenverPost/Survey USA poll and We Ask America poll.

I can't believe CO is this close in the election, what are people doing here?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/co/colorado_romney_vs_obama-2023.html

Uhhhh...that would be a statistically tie.

[5280]

CO is not 'even', it has a very slight lead to Romney of +0.2 when they're all averaged together with the Democrat pollsters (if it makes any difference with 0.2 lead) The chart fails to add the ARG, DenverPost/Survey USA poll and We Ask America poll.

I can't believe CO is this close in the election, what are people doing here?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/co/colorado_romney_vs_obama-2023.html

Uhhhh...that would be a statistically tie.

If it's a statistical tie, Romney needs to campaign more and better in CO. Secondly, if CO is the only tossup state on the map and the rest aren't, that's failure #2. It should be categorized accordingly, not left out.

[Likely Voter]

The Obama OH+WI+NV firewall continues to hold, along with some cushion in IA, NH and maybe CO.  Romney needs another big event to win this  election. Maybe something happens in the FP debate, maybe some major Obama flub/revelation, maybe horrible jobs report. He needs something to happen.

[TrapperHawk]

Not bad at all. Obama still wins 271-267 even if you give Romney Colorado, Iowa and New Hampshire.

I would love to know the exact numbers for Romney's leads in Florida, Virginia and North Carolina.

[Yank2133]

Yeah, I would like to no the percentages in VA.

I really want Obama to get over 300 electoral votes.

[Ty440]

Yeah, I would like to no the percentages in VA.

I really want Obama to get over 300 electoral votes.

What is your gut feeling in your state yank ?

[Yank2133]

Yeah, I would like to no the percentages in VA.

I really want Obama to get over 300 electoral votes.

What is your gut feeling in your state yank ?

I think Mitt is up 1-2 points.

VA, I think is still doable....can't say the same for FL or NC.

[J. J.]

Didn't Cook leak something last week? 

[Sic Semper Fascistis]

OH is truly great news if true.

[Devils30]

I think its way too early to count out Virginia for Obama. Possible he gets a strong enough turn out in the north and the polling is still mixed PPP, Quinnipiac Obama ahead and Romney in Rasmussen. Also the public polls can be just as accurate as the internals. Internals these days are more to frame the message anyway.

[Yank2133]

I think its way too early to count out Virginia for Obama. Possible he gets a strong enough turn out in the north and the polling is still mixed PPP, Quinnipiac Obama ahead and Romney in Rasmussen.

Yeah, Mitt is leading....but VA is still winnable for Obama.

[Devils30]

If it was held today I think Mitt is favored in VA but wouldn't be the least bit shocked if Obama pulled it out by 1.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

These close races are about the ground-game... and as I've said before, underestimate the Obama GOTV at your peril.

[Devils30]

If there's a place where you'll find underpolled younger voters, minorities it's Fairfax and Prince William. Also, white age 18-29 voters in Northern VA are extremely different than those in the rest of the state.

[Duke 🇺🇸]

I doubt one candidate will lose the popular vote and lose the EC. That RARELY happens. It's happened something like two times in our countries history.

There way I see it is this: Romney leads VA, NC, and FL. Obama leads CO, NH, IA, WI, and I don't even consider MI and PA in play. If the election were held today, Obama wins with this map, and I doubt things will change until after the last debate, if they change at all:

[technical support]

I doubt one candidate will lose the popular vote and lose the EC. That RARELY happens. It's happened something like two times in our countries history.

There way I see it is this: Romney leads VA, NC, and FL. Obama leads CO, NH, IA, WI, and I don't even consider MI and PA in play. If the election were held today, Obama wins with this map, and I doubt things will change until after the last debate, if they change at all:

read this and see this it's coming from a normal sane republican. PA is not in play

[Reds4]

Why does Cook only have "Romney ahead" on the states where Romney is ahead and have Obama by a specific amount on the ones he is ahead.. it would be nice to know how many they think Romney is ahead by. Maybe most of his internal pollsters are Dems? I don't know, I just thought it was interesting.

[Lief 🗽]

Cook updated his numbers today, and they've seemingly become more Obama favorable:

NC: R+1-2
FL: R+2 to O+1
VA: R+2 to Even
IA: R+1 to O+7
NH: O+2-5
NV, WI: O+3-7
OH: O +4-7
MI: O +7-8
PA: O +7-9

http://cookpolitical.com/story/4849

[Torie]

I doubt one candidate will lose the popular vote and lose the EC. That RARELY happens. It's happened something like two times in our countries history.

There way I see it is this: Romney leads VA, NC, and FL. Obama leads CO, NH, IA, WI, and I don't even consider MI and PA in play. If the election were held today, Obama wins with this map, and I doubt things will change until after the last debate, if they change at all:

The odds that Mittens wins the popular vote while losing the electoral college look like the highest they have been in any election in my lifetime. I put the odds (yes pulled out of my ass), at as high as 15%.

[J. J.]

Ryan is coming to PA.  I wonder if that means anything? 

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Ryan is coming to PA.  I wonder if that means anything? 

I think it's a test visit.