Western Australia Parliamentary Elections (March 9, 2013)

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

ABC have just 12 seats to call now, L/NP 33 ALP 14, this type of swing will take a good couple elections to get over. Bring on the federal election.

Geez Michelle Roberts loosing in Midland. Ouch.

Roberts is looking like she'll narrowly hold Midland now, although Belmont and Perth have gone Liberal, and Albany is looking like a Labor hold.

[Talleyrand]

How does Kimberly look as a Liberal gain? ABC hasn't called it yet, but Labor trails 47.2 to 52.8 on 2PP at the moment.

[Frodo]

Do we have final figures yet, or are they still counting? 

[MaxQue]

How does Kimberly look as a Liberal gain? ABC hasn't called it yet, but Labor trails 47.2 to 52.8 on 2PP at the moment.

From my reading, through, Labor isn't 2nd in first preferences.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Do we have final figures yet, or are they still counting? 

Still counting, some seats may not have a definite result until sometime this week.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Blank maps are in the gallery. I don't intend on creating any vote tally maps until next week, so someone else might want to create them on Sunday? If not, I'll do them up some time next week and then update them after the declaration of the poll to reflect any changes brought about through the counting of postal votes.

The scale on the two maps should work reasonably well - one is for primary votes, and the other for 2CP. I prefer the colour scale provided by Earl (in the primary vote one, so feel free to adjust the 2CP one for that... I should probably fix that and make a "standard" to use).

I have done both preliminary maps, just waiting for the final results, when they are in I will post the maps here. I will also post my prediction accuracy rate when the declarations come in.

[Smid]

You can save a picture in the gallery, and then edit it and save a new one later (by using the edit button on the picture). You can do an interim one now, and update it after the final results are in and save over it - maybe just 2CP, since the primary vote shades are smaller and might be more likely to change.

[Frodo]

With 75% of the vote counted (so far), the Liberal/National coalition have 36 seats to Labor's 18:

http://www.abc.net.au/elections/wa/2013/

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

You can save a picture in the gallery, and then edit it and save a new one later (by using the edit button on the picture). You can do an interim one now, and update it after the final results are in and save over it - maybe just 2CP, since the primary vote shades are smaller and might be more likely to change.

I've done the interim maps, will post them in the gallery shortly.

Here's how I did with my predictions, with seats that are too close to call to be updated when the result is known:

With one month to go, here are my seat-by-seat predictions for the 2013 WA election:

NOTES

• I may revise some predictions a week before the election, edits will be clearly noted.
• * Sitting Liberal MP
• ** - Retiring Independent

Albany (ALP 0.2%)
Will depend on how the Barnett Government has performed, at this stage Albany looks like a Liberal gain.
INCORRECT

Alfred Cove (IND 0.2% vs LIB)
Will depend on how Janet Woollard and the government have performed during the past term. The Liberals should pick this up, as Woollard almost lost last time and isn’t very popular at the moment.
CORRECT

Armadale (ALP 14.8%)
Labor retain.
CORRECT

Balcatta (ALP 2.2%)
Key seat, especially with the incumbent MP retiring. At this point, I can see Balcatta going Liberal.
CORRECT

Bassendean (ALP 10.3%)
Labor retain.
CORRECT

Bateman (LIB 9.4%)
Liberal retain.
CORRECT

Belmont (ALP 6.7%)
Labor retain, even with the retiring MP, although this could be close.
TOO CLOSE TO CALL INCORRECT

Bunbury (LIB 11.1%)
Liberal retain.
CORRECT

Butler (ALP 10.4%)
Labor retain, although the margin does seem inflated. However, John Quigley is very popular and should have no trouble getting re-elected here.
CORRECT

Cannington (ALP 9.0%)
Labor retain.
CORRECT

Carine (LIB 12.7%)
Liberal retain.
CORRECT

Central Wheatbelt (NAT 18.8% vs LIB)
National retain.
CORRECT

Churchlands** (IND 22.5% vs ALP)
With Liz Constable’s retirement, this should easily go back to the Liberals.
CORRECT

Cockburn (ALP 9.2%)
Labor retain.
CORRECT

Collie-Preston (ALP 3.8%)
Key seat. At this point in time, this would easily go Liberal.
TOO CLOSE TO CALL INCORRECT

Cottesloe (LIB 19.4%)
Liberal retain.
CORRECT

Darling Range (LIB 7.0%)
Liberal retain.
CORRECT

Dawesville (LIB 11.1%)
Liberal retain.
CORRECT

Eyre (LIB 3.4% vs NAT)
Liberal retain.
TOO CLOSE TO CALL CORRECT

Forrestfield (ALP 0.2%)
Will depend on how the Barnett Government has performed, at this stage Forrestfield looks like a Liberal gain.
CORRECT

Fremantle (IND 4.0% vs ALP)
Adele Carles hasn’t been viewed too positively since her defection from the Greens, which could result in Labor or the Greens winning it back. Given that there is a Liberal candidate running, I think Labor will win this one back.
CORRECT

Geraldton (LIB 8.5%)
Liberal retain.
CORRECT

Girrawheen (ALP 6.7%)
Labor favoured, although the addition of Liberal-leaning swing areas to the north could make this interesting.
CORRECT

Gosnells (ALP 4.8%)
Despite the low margin, Labor retain, although this could go close, especially after the last redistribution cut the Labor margin.
CORRECT

Hillarys (LIB 12.9%)
Liberal retain.
CORRECT

Jandakot (LIB 1.8%)
Liberal retain.
CORRECT

Joondalup (ALP 3.3%)
Was a Liberal seat from 1996-2001, so one to watch this time. At this stage, I’d go for a Liberal gain.
CORRECT

Kalamunda (LIB 6.3%)
Liberal retain.
CORRECT

Kalgoorlie** (IND 3.6% vs NAT)
As John Bowler is retiring, this seat should go to either the Liberals or Nationals, depending on who runs the stronger campaign. Considering the rural nature of Kalgoorlie and the seat in general, National gain.
CORRECT

Kimberley (ALP 6.8%)
Key seat, with both Labor and the Nationals strong here. If I had to pick, I’d go for the Nationals.
INCORRECT
   
Kingsley (LIB 4.6%)
Liberal retain.
CORRECT

Kwinana (ALP 16.4%)
Labor retain, even though Carol Adams is running again, as independents rarely win on their second try.
CORRECT

Mandurah (ALP 10.5%)
Labor retain, although the margin does appear to be rather inflated.
CORRECT

Maylands (ALP 8.8%)
Labor retain.
CORRECT

Midland (ALP 8.3%)
Labor retain.
TOO CLOSE TO CALL CORRECT

Mirrabooka (ALP 12.9%)
Labor retain.
CORRECT

Moore (NAT 3.1% vs LIB)
National retain.
CORRECT

Morley* (ALP 0.8%)
Tough battle here, particularly as Ian Britza won in 2008 thanks to a large flow of independent preferences. Considering the swing to the government in opinion polls, Britza should hold this.
CORRECT

Mount Lawley (LIB 1.7%)
Liberal retain, even though the former Labor member for the area is running.
CORRECT

Murray-Wellington (LIB 8.8%)
Liberal retain.
CORRECT

Nedlands (LIB 16.6%)
Liberal retain.
CORRECT

North West Central (NAT 3.3%)
National retain.
CORRECT

Ocean Reef (LIB 2.7%)
Liberal retain.
CORRECT

Perth (ALP 7.7%)
Labor retain.
INCORRECT

Pilbara (ALP 7.2%)
Brendon Grylls is a strong candidate, and the polls are good for the government, so Liberal National gain.
CORRECT

Riverton (LIB 2.0%)
Liberal retain.
CORRECT

Rockingham (ALP 11.4%)
Labor retain.
CORRECT

Scarborough (LIB 5.1%)
Liberal retain.
CORRECT

South Perth (LIB 14.3%)
Liberal retain.
CORRECT

Southern River (LIB 1.8%)
Liberal retain.
CORRECT

Swan Hills (LIB 3.5%)
Liberal retain.
CORRECT

Vasse (LIB 17.8%)
Liberal retain.
CORRECT

Victoria Park (ALP 9.0%)
Labor retain.
CORRECT

Wagin (NAT 28.4% vs LIB)
National retain.
CORRECT

Wanneroo (LIB 1.0%)
Liberal retain.
CORRECT

Warnbro (10.1%)
Labor retain.
CORRECT

Warren-Blackwood (NAT 10.2% vs LIB)
National retain.
TOO CLOSE TO CALL CORRECT

West Swan (ALP 4.1%)
One to watch, particularly with the growth of the Ellenbrook area.
LABOR WON

Willagee (ALP 15.0%)
Labor retain.
CORRECT

EDIT: Coloured in seats according to incumbent party, fixed a couple of errors in some seats, such as Pilbara.

EDIT 18/3/2013: Updated prediction results now that all seats are decided, got 53/59 right.

[Smid]

I've edited the colour scale on the 2CP base map, to align it with (Earl's) primary vote colour scale.

[RogueBeaver]

When will they release the final results?

[Smid]

I don't know the WA Electoral Act, but generally in Australia, postal votes can be received by the returning officer for about two weeks following election day - so long as they are post marked as having been posted from before election day (basically, it provides those two weeks for votes to trickle in from overseas, however most postal votes will have been received either before polling day, or in the two-three days following, it will only be the most marginal of seats that will have any change after that).

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

I've edited the colour scale on the 2CP base map, to align it with (Earl's) primary vote colour scale.

Thanks, I'll update the final map when all results are in, some seats are yet to be decided (Kimberley could stay with Labor at this stage).

[Smid]

I've edited the colour scale on the 2CP base map, to align it with (Earl's) primary vote colour scale.

Thanks, I'll update the final map when all results are in, some seats are yet to be decided (Kimberley could stay with Labor at this stage).

Yeah, that's what I figured - so I thought if I let you know I've worked on adjusting the colour scheme to bring it in line with the primary vote one, you'd be able to use that when the final results are released.

In the meantime, here is an interim map showing two candidate preferred swing (bigger version in the gallery, of course):



There are a few things to note - the ultra-safe Liberal areas in the inner-coastal North (not sure what the local terminology for that area is) didn't swing much, possibly because they were already virtually "maxed out". Churchlands (which swung to Labor) isn't perfectly comparable, because it was previously won by an independent. The very large Liberal swing in Alfred Cove is also not perfectly comparable, due to the independent winning there last election.

The safer Labor areas around Fremantle/Willagee/Cockburn only swung by a few percent, and near Rockingham/Warnbro/Kwinana swung to Labor or Liberal by less than a percent.

Likewise, the safer Labor area around Gosnells only swung marginally, and Forestfield was quite a small swing, too. I know that on the night, the panel was saying that Labor ran a targetted campaign in Forestfield, which could possibly explain some of that, the other Labor areas mentioned... perhaps the on-the-day Newspoll scared a few Labor protest-voters into voting Labor to ensure their seat didn't go Coalition?

I don't know much about the Swan Hills/East Swan electorates, and why the swing there was so slight.

Down in the South-West, the swing to the Liberals in Warren-Blackwood may be in part because Labor and the Greens preferenced the Liberal candidate there ahead of the Nationals incumbent. However, the same result was not replicated in North-West Central, where there is a swing to the Nationals, despite Labor preferencing the Liberal candidate ahead of "Vinnie the Rat" - who won the seat last election for Labor, before defecting to the Nationals. 

The strong swing to the Liberals in Central Wheatbelt may possibly be because of the incumbent (leader of the Nationals) switching from his safe seat to run in the previously fairly safe Labor seat of Pilbara, creating a strong "retiring" incumbent effect? In the same way, note the strong swing he picked up for the Nationals in Pilbara.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

I've edited the colour scale on the 2CP base map, to align it with (Earl's) primary vote colour scale.

Thanks, I'll update the final map when all results are in, some seats are yet to be decided (Kimberley could stay with Labor at this stage).

Yeah, that's what I figured - so I thought if I let you know I've worked on adjusting the colour scheme to bring it in line with the primary vote one, you'd be able to use that when the final results are released.

In the meantime, here is an interim map showing two candidate preferred swing (bigger version in the gallery, of course):



There are a few things to note - the ultra-safe Liberal areas in the inner-coastal North (not sure what the local terminology for that area is) didn't swing much, possibly because they were already virtually "maxed out". Churchlands (which swung to Labor) isn't perfectly comparable, because it was previously won by an independent. The very large Liberal swing in Alfred Cove is also not perfectly comparable, due to the independent winning there last election.

The safer Labor areas around Fremantle/Willagee/Cockburn only swung by a few percent, and near Rockingham/Warnbro/Kwinana swung to Labor or Liberal by less than a percent.

Likewise, the safer Labor area around Gosnells only swung marginally, and Forestfield was quite a small swing, too. I know that on the night, the panel was saying that Labor ran a targetted campaign in Forestfield, which could possibly explain some of that, the other Labor areas mentioned... perhaps the on-the-day Newspoll scared a few Labor protest-voters into voting Labor to ensure their seat didn't go Coalition?

I don't know much about the Swan Hills/East Swan electorates, and why the swing there was so slight.

Down in the South-West, the swing to the Liberals in Warren-Blackwood may be in part because Labor and the Greens preferenced the Liberal candidate there ahead of the Nationals incumbent. However, the same result was not replicated in North-West Central, where there is a swing to the Nationals, despite Labor preferencing the Liberal candidate ahead of "Vinnie the Rat" - who won the seat last election for Labor, before defecting to the Nationals. 

The strong swing to the Liberals in Central Wheatbelt may possibly be because of the incumbent (leader of the Nationals) switching from his safe seat to run in the previously fairly safe Labor seat of Pilbara, creating a strong "retiring" incumbent effect? In the same way, note the strong swing he picked up for the Nationals in Pilbara.

Thanks once again, and regarding West Swan and Swan Hills, that would be because those electorates cover the Ellenbrook area, and would have been voting largely on the rail line issue, hence the small swing to the Liberals.

As for Kwinana, Rockingham and Warnbro, that's Mark McGowan's home turf, which explains Kwinana and Rockingham swinging to Labor and Warnbro only swinging marginally to the Liberals.

[Frodo]

With 75% of the vote counted (so far), the Liberal/National coalition have 36 seats to Labor's 18:

http://www.abc.net.au/elections/wa/2013/

With 84% of the vote, the Liberal/National coalition now have 37 seats; Labor is stuck at 18. 

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

With 75% of the vote counted (so far), the Liberal/National coalition have 36 seats to Labor's 18:

http://www.abc.net.au/elections/wa/2013/

With 84% of the vote, the Liberal/National coalition now have 37 seats; Labor is stuck at 18. 

Update: Now with 86.2%, the Liberals and Nationals hold a combined 37 seats, and Labor now has 19, with the addition of Kimberley.

[Talleyrand]

With 75% of the vote counted (so far), the Liberal/National coalition have 36 seats to Labor's 18:

http://www.abc.net.au/elections/wa/2013/

With 84% of the vote, the Liberal/National coalition now have 37 seats; Labor is stuck at 18. 

Update: Now with 86.2%, the Liberals and Nationals hold a combined 37 seats, and Labor now has 19, with the addition of Kimberley.

Do you think Labor can hold Midland and Collie-Preston, or will the absentee votes doom the incumbents here? I last heard Michelle Roberts was gaining, but Mick Murray's lead was slipping away.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Kimberley result is hilarious and deserves to be posted in semi-fullness:

ALP 26.8%
Lib 25.7%
Green 23.5%
Nat 18.3%
Ind 4.4%
ACP 1.4

ALP 55.2%, Lib 44.8%

Doesn't seem like natural Greenie territory or anything, but look... the ABC electorate profile doth note that:

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It was also an open seat.

[Velasco]

In WA The Greens lost more ground than Labor in primary vote. I didn't follow the WA election but very occasionally. Why Greenies performed even worse than ALP? The Greenies have a +10.1% swing in Kimberley, while Labor swing is -14.5%, with 71.8% counted. Where is the James Price Point? It's obvious that gas hub was a real issue in the Far North. In Eyre, another remote seat which includes Esperance and Boulder (south of Kalgoorlie), the NAT candidate is defeating the incumbent Liberal by 22 votes right now (81.6% counted). The profile don't say anything about controversial issues there.

However, one of the funniest things of Australian politics to me are the Christian parties. The website of the Australian Christian Party includes the following quote by George Washington:

It is impossible to rightly govern the world without God and the Bible.

Also, they notice that 19% of Australians attend Church (I'd say that denotes that it's a pretty secular country) and the website affirms that the goal of the party is appealing these 2.7 million of Australians to become the third force, replacing the Greens. Isn't it a bit hilariuos? Why not 1.35 million for the ACP and another 1.35 for FFP?

[Smid]

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Source

[BigSkyBob]

31-7-21 after initial vote count over.

[Talleyrand]

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Source

I'll easily take this final result over what happened in Queensland last year and NSW the year before. The final TPP margin was 58-42, with a primary vote of 47-33-8-6 (Liberal-Labor-Green-National).

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

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Source

I'll easily take this final result over what happened in Queensland last year and NSW the year before. The final TPP margin was 58-42, with a primary vote of 47-33-8-6 (Liberal-Labor-Green-National).

While the finall TPP was 58-42 to the Liberals and Nationals, Labor did a good job of limiting swings in some areas (e.g. Forrestfield, Swan Hills, West Swan), or in some cases, getting swings in their favour (e.g. Albany, Rockingham). However, this may have caused them to lose the likes of Perth and Belmont, and almost lose Midland.

All in all, a great result for the Liberals and Nationals, particularly the aforementioned results in Perth and Belmont, and Brendon Grylls' decisive victory in the Pilbara.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's a heavy defeat, but a respectable one.