Western Australia Parliamentary Elections (March 9, 2013)

[RogueBeaver]

Et sa continue.

[MaxQue]

Et sa continue.

ça, not sa.

[Frodo]

The election campaign season seems to have finally begun:

Labor launches WA election campaign

AAP January 28, 2013 4:42PM

WEST Australian Labor leader Mark McGowan has officially launched his party's state election campaign declaring it a "referendum on priorities".

Mr McGowan has been unofficially campaigning for the March 9 election for about a month, but on Monday, he finally made the official announcement with his family by his side.

"I think the time for the phoney campaign is over. I think the time for the real campaign has now begun," he told reporters.

"It will be about who has the right priorities for the future of Western Australia."

In a long speech to the media, Mr McGowan again labelled Premier Colin Barnett arrogant and out of touch, and criticised the government's focus on inner city projects.

"Mr Barnett's priorities and his instincts are all wrong," he said.

"His priorities revolve around the central business district in Perth and how many plaques he can get with his name on it in the centre of the city."

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

With one month to go, here are my seat-by-seat predictions for the 2013 WA election:

NOTES

• I may revise some predictions a week before the election, edits will be clearly noted.
• * Sitting Liberal MP
• ** - Retiring Independent

Albany (ALP 0.2%)
Will depend on how the Barnett Government has performed, at this stage Albany looks like a Liberal gain.

Alfred Cove (IND 0.2% vs LIB)
Will depend on how Janet Woollard and the government have performed during the past term. The Liberals should pick this up, as Woollard almost lost last time and isn’t very popular at the moment.

Armadale (ALP 14.8%)
Labor retain.

Balcatta (ALP 2.2%)
Key seat, especially with the incumbent MP retiring. At this point, I can see Balcatta going Liberal.

Bassendean (ALP 10.3%)
Labor retain.

Bateman (LIB 9.4%)
Liberal retain.

Belmont (ALP 6.7%)
Labor retain, even with the retiring MP, although this could be close.

Bunbury (LIB 11.1%)
Liberal retain.

Butler (ALP 10.4%)
Labor retain, although the margin does seem inflated. However, John Quigley is very popular and should have no trouble getting re-elected here.

Cannington (ALP 9.0%)
Labor retain.

Carine (LIB 12.7%)
Liberal retain.

Central Wheatbelt (NAT 18.8% vs LIB)
National retain.

Churchlands** (IND 22.5% vs ALP)
With Liz Constable’s retirement, this should easily go back to the Liberals.

Cockburn (ALP 9.2%)
Labor retain.

Collie-Preston (ALP 3.8%)
Key seat. At this point in time, this would easily go Liberal.

Cottesloe (LIB 19.4%)
Liberal retain.

Darling Range (LIB 7.0%)
Liberal retain.

Dawesville (LIB 11.1%)
Liberal retain.

Eyre (LIB 3.4% vs NAT)
Liberal retain.

Forrestfield (ALP 0.2%)
Will depend on how the Barnett Government has performed, at this stage Forrestfield looks like a Liberal gain.

Fremantle (IND 4.0% vs ALP)
Adele Carles hasn’t been viewed too positively since her defection from the Greens, which could result in Labor or the Greens winning it back. Given that there is a Liberal candidate running, I think Labor will win this one back.

Geraldton (LIB 8.5%)
Liberal retain.

Girrawheen (ALP 6.7%)
Labor favoured, although the addition of Liberal-leaning swing areas to the north could make this interesting.

Gosnells (ALP 4.8%)
Despite the low margin, Labor retain, although this could go close, especially after the last redistribution cut the Labor margin.

Hillarys (LIB 12.9%)
Liberal retain.

Jandakot (LIB 1.8%)
Liberal retain.

Joondalup (ALP 3.3%)
Was a Liberal seat from 1996-2001, so one to watch this time. At this stage, I’d go for a Liberal gain.

Kalamunda (LIB 6.3%)
Liberal retain.

Kalgoorlie** (IND 3.6% vs NAT)
As John Bowler is retiring, this seat should go to either the Liberals or Nationals, depending on who runs the stronger campaign. Considering the rural nature of Kalgoorlie and the seat in general, National gain.

Kimberley (ALP 6.8%)
Key seat, with both Labor and the Nationals strong here. If I had to pick, I’d go for the Nationals.
   
Kingsley (LIB 4.6%)
Liberal retain.

Kwinana (ALP 16.4%)
Labor retain, even though Carol Adams is running again, as independents rarely win on their second try.

Mandurah (ALP 10.5%)
Labor retain, although the margin does appear to be rather inflated.

Maylands (ALP 8.8%)
Labor retain.

Midland (ALP 8.3%)
Labor retain.

Mirrabooka (ALP 12.9%)
Labor retain.

Moore (NAT 3.1% vs LIB)
National retain.

Morley* (ALP 0.8%)
Tough battle here, particularly as Ian Britza won in 2008 thanks to a large flow of independent preferences. Considering the swing to the government in opinion polls, Britza should hold this.

Mount Lawley (LIB 1.7%)
Liberal retain, even though the former Labor member for the area is running.

Murray-Wellington (LIB 8.8%)
Liberal retain.

Nedlands (LIB 16.6%)
Liberal retain.

North West Central (NAT 3.3%)
National retain.

Ocean Reef (LIB 2.7%)
Liberal retain.

Perth (ALP 7.7%)
Labor retain.

Pilbara (ALP 7.2%)
Brendon Grylls is a strong candidate, and the polls are good for the government, so Liberal National gain.

Riverton (LIB 2.0%)
Liberal retain.

Rockingham (ALP 11.4%)
Labor retain.

Scarborough (LIB 5.1%)
Liberal retain.

South Perth (LIB 14.3%)
Liberal retain.

Southern River (LIB 1.8%)
Liberal retain.

Swan Hills (LIB 3.5%)
Liberal retain.

Vasse (LIB 17.8%)
Liberal retain.

Victoria Park (ALP 9.0%)
Labor retain.

Wagin (NAT 28.4% vs LIB)
National retain.

Wanneroo (LIB 1.0%)
Liberal retain.

Warnbro (10.1%)
Labor retain.

Warren-Blackwood (NAT 10.2% vs LIB)
National retain.

West Swan (ALP 4.1%)
One to watch, particularly with the growth of the Ellenbrook area.

Willagee (ALP 15.0%)
Labor retain.

EDIT: Coloured in seats according to incumbent party, fixed a couple of errors in some seats, such as Pilbara.

[Talleyrand]

Thanks for doing this. What do your predictions add up to in number of seat totals at this point?

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Thanks for doing this. What do your predictions add up to in number of seat totals at this point?

Labor: 19
Liberal: 31
National: 8
Independent: 0
Unsure: 1 (West Swan)

[Talleyrand]

So Labor -7, Liberals +7, and Nationals +3, and that's assuming West Swan stays Labor.

At least it doesn't look like a Queensland style wipeout, although definitely not a great result by any means.

[Frodo]

Thanks for doing this. What do your predictions add up to in number of seat totals at this point?

Labor: 19
Liberal: 31
National: 8
Independent: 0
Unsure: 1 (West Swan)

Is that enough for the Liberals to rule Western Australia without having to be in a coalition with the Nationals? 

[RogueBeaver]

31/59, so yes. However like Howard in '96 that's not a good idea because they'll almost certainly need the Nats later.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Thanks for doing this. What do your predictions add up to in number of seat totals at this point?

Labor: 19
Liberal: 31
National: 8
Independent: 0
Unsure: 1 (West Swan)

Is that enough for the Liberals to rule Western Australia without having to be in a coalition with the Nationals? 

31/59, so yes. However like Howard in '96 that's not a good idea because they'll almost certainly need the Nats later.

As RogueBeaver pointed out, the Liberals will have the numbers to govern outright - in the lower house. They will still need the Nationals in the upper house.

[Platypus]

31/59, so yes. However like Howard in '96 that's not a good idea because they'll almost certainly need the Nats later.

The WA Nats are far more separate from the WA Libs than their eastern colleagues.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And did the World quite the favour by removing Wilson 'Ironbar' Tuckey from public office and in so doing prevented said swinish clown and criminal intellect from ever again interjecting in perpetuity.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

2 weeks to go, and Galaxy have released their poll, 56-44 to the Government. 1% down on Newspoll's poll a fortnight ago. Barnett leads McGowan as preferred Premier 49-43, as opposed to Newspoll's 44-40 to Barnett figure.

Unless this trend continues, like in Victoria in 2010, the government should gain a majority in the lower house, whether it be Liberals by themselves or with the Nationals.

Even then, the Victorian trend in the polls preceding their elections was very gradual, there was only a 2.6% shift in the final fortnight, which wouldn't be enough to unseat the WA Government if repeated to them.

[Velasco]

I was playing with the Anthony Green calculator, it was funny. I've put a 4.1 swing for the Coalition both in Perth and the Country. In the option "override individual seats" I've put Alfred Cove and Churchlands won by LIB, Central Wheatbelt, Kalgoorlie and Pilbara by NAT and Fremantle by Labor.

The outcome is LIB 32, LAB 20 and NAT 7. LIB gains West Swan, Collie-Preston, Joondalup, Morley, Balcatta, Forrestfield and Albany. NAT gains Pilbara and Kalgoorlie and Labor Fremantle. Is it likely? It seems that the election is done anyway.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

I was playing with the Anthony Green calculator, it was funny. I've put a 4.1 swing for the Coalition both in Perth and the Country. In the option "override individual seats" I've put Alfred Cove and Churchlands won by LIB, Central Wheatbelt, Kalgoorlie and Pilbara by NAT and Fremantle by Labor.

The outcome is LIB 32, LAB 20 and NAT 7. LIB gains West Swan, Collie-Preston, Joondalup, Morley, Balcatta, Forrestfield and Albany. NAT gains Pilbara and Kalgoorlie and Labor Fremantle. Is it likely? It seems that the election is done anyway.

For the most part, that would be the result if there was a 4.1% swing to the government, however, West Swan has a good chance of staying Labor, and Morley, while notionally Labor, should return to the Liberal column (it has a sitting Liberal member). Also, Kimberley might go National, that will be an interesting seat to watch on election night.

[Frodo]

Just a reminder -the election (if you're in Australia) is tomorrow. 

[Talleyrand]

So what are the final predictions here? From my limited knowledge, I would say 55-57% for the Liberals/Nationals in 2PP, with a slight outright majority for Barnett's party in the lower house. So basically another significant loss for Labor, but not nearly as horrific as the massacres last year and the year before in QLD and NSW.

[Platypus]

Labor will lose, but yeah, decimation isn't on the cards. Probably a 8-12 seats behind the libs, who should have an outright majority.

[Smid]

Blank maps are in the gallery. I don't intend on creating any vote tally maps until next week, so someone else might want to create them on Sunday? If not, I'll do them up some time next week and then update them after the declaration of the poll to reflect any changes brought about through the counting of postal votes.

The scale on the two maps should work reasonably well - one is for primary votes, and the other for 2CP. I prefer the colour scale provided by Earl (in the primary vote one, so feel free to adjust the 2CP one for that... I should probably fix that and make a "standard" to use).

[Frodo]

Colin Barnett's Libs storm towards second term

BY:PAIGE TAYLOR AND NICOLAS PERPITCH
From: The Australian March 09, 2013 12:00AM

COLIN Barnett has finished the West Australian election campaign in a near-unbeatable position, with a surge of voter support expected to bring him a second term in office and strip Labor of almost half of its seats.

The Premier and his Liberal-Nationals Coalition go to the polls today with a two-party-preferred lead over Labor of 59.5 per cent to 40.5 per cent, which would see them returned with an increased majority,according to a Newspoll conducted exclusively for The Weekend Australian this week.

Based on the poll, the Liberals, who formed government with the West Australian Nationals in 2008 after neither the Liberal Party nor the ALP was able to command a majority, are expected to be able to govern in their own right if they choose.

Labor has lost ground during the election campaign, having started the campaign 14 percentage points behind on preferences and finished it 19 points down. Based on the Newspoll figures, Labor stands to lose up to 12 of its 28 seats.

Mr Barnett's personal standing has also risen over the four weeks of the campaign. For the first time since Mr McGowan took over from Eric Ripper as Labor leader in January, more than half of voters - 52 per cent - rate Mr Barnett the better premier.

(...) Newspoll conducted its latest interviews with 1744 West Australian voters between Monday and Thursday this week.

It found that primary support for the Liberals had risen from 51 per cent at the start of the campaign to 54 per cent, while Labor's had fallen from 35 per cent to 32 per cent.

[Smid]

Results should be trickling out soon.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Blank maps are in the gallery. I don't intend on creating any vote tally maps until next week, so someone else might want to create them on Sunday? If not, I'll do them up some time next week and then update them after the declaration of the poll to reflect any changes brought about through the counting of postal votes.

The scale on the two maps should work reasonably well - one is for primary votes, and the other for 2CP. I prefer the colour scale provided by Earl (in the primary vote one, so feel free to adjust the 2CP one for that... I should probably fix that and make a "standard" to use).

I'd like to do those maps, I'll post them here when I'm done.

Watching the results now, anticipating the first results... As others have said, Labor should do better than NSW/QLD, but the Coalition should win a large number of seats.

[Smid]

Newspoll conducted the Sky News exit poll.

70% of Labor voters said they'll vote the same way federally, and 90% of Coalition voters will.

[mattyman]

ABC have just 12 seats to call now, L/NP 33 ALP 14, this type of swing will take a good couple elections to get over. Bring on the federal election.

Geez Michelle Roberts loosing in Midland. Ouch.

[Platypus]

Looks like ALP will lose 10-13 seats.

I thoroughly overestimated the Western Australian people in my prediction