Western Australia Parliamentary Elections (March 9, 2013)

[Frodo]

The election there isn't until next March, but a poll is already out showing that the Liberals are well on their way to yet another triumph:

Poll points to Liberals picking up WA seats

WESTERN Australia's Colin Barnett-led government looks set to pick up seats in the March election, which could end the Liberal-National party coalition formed in 2008, a political commentator says.

The latest Newspoll published in The Australian today showed the Barnett government was well ahead of Labor, which dumped leader Eric Ripper in favour of Mark McGowan nine months ago.

The poll showed the Liberal-National coalition was in front in the September quarter with a 57-43 lead over Labor on a two-party preferred basis.

That compares to 53 per cent of voters favouring the Liberal-Nationals and 47 per cent backing Labor in the March quarter.

Political commentator Peter Kennedy said it was a better than expected result for Mr Barnett, and time was running out for Labor to shore up support before the March 9 election, with only four weeks left of state parliament and the state effectively in "holiday mode" from mid-November.

[Smid]

I was waiting for this thread to appear. I believe we now have a WA poster, too, who may contribute insights (our not, depending on perceived conflicts of interest - I'm quietest about elections in which I'm involved).

2008 Western Australian Election 2CP Results - Adjusted to 2011 Redistribution Boundaries



2008 Western Australian Election Primary Vote Results - Adjusted to 2011 Redistribution Boundaries



2008 Western Australian Election Results - 2CP



2008 Western Australian Election Results - Primary Vote

[Smid]

The Newspoll mentioned in the OP is interesting, there hasn't been much change compared to the election, except in the Liberal and Labor lines.

First bracketed number is the election result, second number is the poll, third (bracketed) number is the change since the last (Jan-March) poll. This poll was conducted from July to September and included 839 respondants. The MoE is 3.5%. 7% "uncommitted" and 2% "refused" were excluded from the sample.

Primary Vote
Labor (35.8%) 30% (-5%)
Liberal (38.4%) 43% (+4%)
Nationals (4.9%) 5% (-1%)
Lib/Nats (43.3%) 48% (+3%)
Greens (11.9%) 12% (+1%)
Others (9.0%) 10% (+1%)

Two Party Preferred
Labor (48.1%) 43% (-4%) vs Lib/Nats (51.9%) 57% (+4%)

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

All I can say is while I predict the Liberals will gain seats, they still won't pick up a majority in their own right, continuing to govern with the WA Nationals and independents (the latter pending on composition of the Parliament post-election).

[Kitteh]

What would be the likely change in policy resulting from a switch from a Liberal-WA National government to a Liberal majority? Any significant changes?

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

For starters, the Liberals may cut or cease the Royalties for Regions program, although this seems unlikely, since even if the Liberals gain a majority in the Legislative Assembly, they'll most likely still need the Nationals' votes in the Legislative Council, unless the result in the LC is like that of Victoria in 2010.

[Platypus]

How much of this is already liberal seats getting more Liberal? From what I understand, the movement last time was very strong in already liberal areas, and relatively weak elsewhere. Are they maxed out, and the gain is coming in the marginal and non-lib seats, or is that trend continuing?

[morgieb]

Barnett will walk to victory.

[Frodo]

And here is the link to the March 9, 2013 election preview...

http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2012/12/2013-western-australian-election-preview.html

How reliable is this, BTW?

[RogueBeaver]

And here is the link to the March 9, 2013 election preview...

http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2012/12/2013-western-australian-election-preview.html

How reliable is this, BTW?

It's Antony Green. 'Nuff said.

[Vosem]

And here is the link to the March 9, 2013 election preview...

http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2012/12/2013-western-australian-election-preview.html

How reliable is this, BTW?

It's Antony Green. 'Nuff said.

...and is that a good thing or a bad thing?

[Kitteh]

And here is the link to the March 9, 2013 election preview...

http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2012/12/2013-western-australian-election-preview.html

How reliable is this, BTW?

It's Antony Green. 'Nuff said.

...and is that a good thing or a bad thing?

Good. He's like the Nate Silver of Australia.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Good. He's like the Nate Silver of Australia.

No, he's better than that.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Good. He's like the Nate Silver of Australia.

No, he's better than that.

Indeed, he's not just about applying stats, he also knows a LOT about political demography and geography.

[Frodo]

The ABC 2013 Western Australia elections website is now live.

(well, at least since last week....)

[joevsimp]

so, any chance of the Greens retaining/regaining Freeo?

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

so, any chance of the Greens retaining/regaining Freeo?

I would say there's a fairly slim chance of the Greens re-gaining Fremantle, considering that the Liberals are contesting Fremantle again, I'd say Labor will re-gain it. One thing I can be fairly certain of is Carles losing the seat.

[Talleyrand]

so, any chance of the Greens retaining/regaining Freeo?

I would say there's a fairly slim chance of the Greens re-gaining Fremantle, considering that the Liberals are contesting Fremantle again, I'd say Labor will re-gain it. One thing I can be fairly certain of is Carles losing the seat.

Do you think it will be an outright Liberal majority or will Barnett still have to depend on National support? Judging from the recent poll results, I would guess the former.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

so, any chance of the Greens retaining/regaining Freeo?

I would say there's a fairly slim chance of the Greens re-gaining Fremantle, considering that the Liberals are contesting Fremantle again, I'd say Labor will re-gain it. One thing I can be fairly certain of is Carles losing the seat.

Do you think it will be an outright Liberal majority or will Barnett still have to depend on National support? Judging from the recent poll results, I would guess the former.

Swings can be hard to pin down, although you do have a point there, as the Liberals are looking to pick up 2 independent seats, possibly a third, combine this with the pickup of Albany, Forrestfield, and Balcatta, which should fall on a uniform swing, and you have a Liberal majority in the Lower House. In the Upper House, the Liberals will most likely still need the Nationals.

We will just have to wait and see though, as the election is over a month away.

[Talleyrand]

Do you think Brand or either/both of the two safer seats for Labor in WA might fall this year? Judging from recent poll results, it seems pretty unlikely, but I think Brand at least must still be possible, looking at Gary Gray's middling performance in 2010.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Do you think Brand or either/both of the two safer seats for Labor in WA might fall this year? Judging from recent poll results, it seems pretty unlikely, but I think Brand at least must still be possible, looking at Gary Gray's middling performance in 2010.

Can't see Perth or Fremantle going Liberal, especially as the sitting member for the former is Stephen Smith. Brand is a bit more likely, but I can't see it falling either, although there's a good chance it could come close.

[Frodo]

This poll is from last week, and is consistent with the earlier poll I posted at the beginning of this thread:

Westpoll: 59-41 to Liberal-National in WA

A Westpoll survey of 400 respondents in The West Australian today corroborates the bad news for Labor in this week’s Newspoll, showing the Liberal-National government leading 59-41 on two-party preferred from primary votes of 50% for the Liberals, 5% for the Nationals, 30% for Labor and 10% for the Greens. Colin Barnett leads Mark McGowan 51-35 as preferred premier. GhostWhoVotes has full tables, including responses on most important issue. The sample size being what it is, the margin of error on the poll is about 5%.

[Talleyrand]

I would be surprised if the Liberals don't win the 2PP by double digits. The real question seems to be whether they can break 60%. Either way, another drubbing of Labor.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

I would be surprised if the Liberals don't win the 2PP by double digits. The real question seems to be whether they can break 60%. Either way, another drubbing of Labor.

We'll just have to wait and see, the election's still over 6 weeks away.

[Talleyrand]

I would be pretty surprised if it got closer, but you actually live there, so I'll trust your judgement. Judging from recent elections though, it appears anti-Labor sentiment has only intensified near election day.