PA, Susquehanna: Romney in the lead

[J. J.]

Outlier.

If Pennsylvania is gone, Ohio is too.

Outlier implies that some of their polls are accurate.  They're not. 

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Outlier.

If Pennsylvania is gone, Ohio is too.

Outlier implies that some of their polls are accurate.  They're not. 

I don't really know anything about this pollster, it's just kind of obvious given the other PA polls.  I'll take your word for it, though.

[dirks]

I think Romney is maybe tied or +1 in PA right now...if he was up 4 we'd see more panic from the Obama campaign regarding the state...so either they're still fairly comfortable about it...or they're keeping this panic from spilling into the media

[wan]

joke poll.

Joe Biden is well known there and loved. Philly, scranton &  pittsburgh are democratic cities

What about that arizona poll that came out recent with obama with a 3 point lead

if obama is leading in ohio no way he could be down in pa

[Cliffy]

Didn't this pollster have it within the MOE Sept 23rd?  Do other "reputable" (pollsters you like) polls now have PA within MOE?

And I agree Romney won't win PA without OH. 

[Eraserhead]

I think Romney is maybe tied or +1 in PA right now...if he was up 4 we'd see more panic from the Obama campaign regarding the state...so either they're still fairly comfortable about it...or they're keeping this panic from spilling into the media

Yeah, about that, err, no.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think Romney is maybe tied or +1 in PA right now...if he was up 4 we'd see more panic from the Obama campaign regarding the state...so either they're still fairly comfortable about it...or they're keeping this panic from spilling into the media

That's a confused stream of logic going on there...

[Tender Branson]

Wishful thinking.

Is Santorum still going to win the Senate race ?

[Badger]

http://m.washingtonexaminer.com/poll-shows-romney-leading-in-blue-pennsylvania/article/2511153


Romney 49
Obama 45



Excellent news! The surge is spreading across America.

Care to bet on that surge carrying PA for Romney?

Seriously, I'll gladly put a month's worth of baring the winner's (non-TOS violating) sig for a month on it. Especially when your obnoxious broken record "Good News" meme has long grown stale.

Put up or shut up, Krazy--but preferably the latter.

[Torie]

I persuaded the Enterprise car rental guy in Darby, PA to vote for Mittens today. 

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I persuaded the Enterprise car rental guy in Darby, PA to vote for Mittens today. 

Doesn't say a lot for the people at Enterprise if they're that easily swayed...

[J. J.]

Ryan is coming to campaign in PA.  (No, I still don't trust Susquehanna.)

[Torie]

I persuaded the Enterprise car rental guy in Darby, PA to vote for Mittens today. 

Doesn't say a lot for the people at Enterprise if they're that easily swayed...

You're not very impressed with my dulcet tongue I take it.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I persuaded the Enterprise car rental guy in Darby, PA to vote for Mittens today. 

Doesn't say a lot for the people at Enterprise if they're that easily swayed...

You're not very impressed with my dulcet tongue I take it.

Since the guy was quite possibly just saying something to please a customer, I'm not impressed.

[Cliffy]

Ryan is coming to campaign in PA.  (No, I still don't trust Susquehanna.)

You should, their turnout model has been 3 wks ahead of everyone else, but there is a trend of polls moving towards them over the last couple of weeks.  Internal pollsters said it was tight back then too.  Now Susq is saying Romney is leading, you should listen.

[pa2011]

Ryan is coming to campaign in PA.  (No, I still don't trust Susquehanna.)

You should, their turnout model has been 3 wks ahead of everyone else, but there is a trend of polls moving towards them over the last couple of weeks.  Internal pollsters said it was tight back then too.  Now Susq is saying Romney is leading, you should listen.

If it was really close, Ryan would be going to Philadelphia Burbs, or perhaps Northeastern PA, and not Western PA.   It's very hard for Romney to do much better than McCain did in the western part of the state, since McCain had already flipped several historical Democratic counties in the Southwest. Even the northern Pittsburgh GOP suburbs stayed beat red in '08.  Yet, Obama still easily carried PA. Where does Romney think he's going to pick up enough votes in the west? The city of Pittsburgh?

[J. J.]

Ryan is coming to campaign in PA.  (No, I still don't trust Susquehanna.)

You should, their turnout model has been 3 wks ahead of everyone else, but there is a trend of polls moving towards them over the last couple of weeks.  Internal pollsters said it was tight back then too.  Now Susq is saying Romney is leading, you should listen.

If it was really close, Ryan would be going to Philadelphia Burbs, or perhaps Northeastern PA, and not Western PA.   It's very hard for Romney to do much better than McCain did in the western part of the state, since McCain had already flipped several historical Democratic counties in the Southwest. Even the northern Pittsburgh GOP suburbs stayed beat red in '08.  Yet, Obama still easily carried PA. Where does Romney think he's going to pick up enough votes in the west? The city of Pittsburgh? Please....

Coal. 

Personally.  I'd be deploying him to WI.

[pa2011]

There are only like three "coal counties" in Southwest PA. They already flipped to McCain four years ago, and frankly, there are very few voters that live in them relative to rest of state. The rest of Southwest PA barely thinks of "coal" and doesn't consider itself anywhere part of "coal country."

[Cliffy]

Romney will win OH first, I'm confident he's up in OH right now by 2-3, but that is his money state he can't slip in, protect your most likely.  PA is just gravy and wouldn't surprise me if he's up by 1 or 2 there.  I'm telling you these polls are off.

[J. J.]

There are only like three "coal counties" in Southwest PA. They already flipped to McCain four years ago, and frankly, there are very few voters that live in them relative to rest of state. The rest of Southwest PA barely thinks of "coal" and doesn't consider itself anywhere part of "coal country."

Cambria, Somerset, Westmoreland, Fayette, Indiana, Armstrong, Greene, and Washington, without looking; that is just the areas south and east of Pittsburgh.  You have a lot of people living in those counties that work in mining, and a lot that work with coal power generation and a lot that work in transport.  Cambria went for Obama, and Fayette and Washington were close.

[Likely Voter]

This poll was done for the PA GOP who are tryimg to get the national party and Romney campaign to spend time/money in PA. Looks like they got Ryan to do an event at an airport, probably on his way to an event in OH. Wonder if he will get off the plane or just give his stump speech from rhe door of the while they refuel

[pa2011]

Romney will win OH first, I'm confident he's up in OH right now by 2-3, but that is his money state he can't slip in, protect your most likely.  PA is just gravy and wouldn't surprise me if he's up by 1 or 2 there.  I'm telling you these polls are off.

Cliffy, sort of hard to take your seriously. Did you not read this?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=162025.0

So either the well-respected Charlie Cook is making stuff up? Or both D and R internal pollsters are off and you know better than them? Is that what you are implying?

[J. J.]

Romney will win OH first, I'm confident he's up in OH right now by 2-3, but that is his money state he can't slip in, protect your most likely.  PA is just gravy and wouldn't surprise me if he's up by 1 or 2 there.  I'm telling you these polls are off.

Cliffy, sort of hard to take your seriously. Did you not read this?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=162025.0

So either the well-respected Charlie Cook is making stuff up? Or both D and R internal pollsters are off and you know better than them? Is that what you are implying?

Considering we had a bogus lead from Cook last week, possibly.

And I still don't trust Susquehanna.

[Badger]

There are only like three "coal counties" in Southwest PA. They already flipped to McCain four years ago, and frankly, there are very few voters that live in them relative to rest of state. The rest of Southwest PA barely thinks of "coal" and doesn't consider itself anywhere part of "coal country."

Cambria, Somerset, Westmoreland, Fayette, Indiana, Armstrong, Greene, and Washington, without looking; that is just the areas south and east of Pittsburgh.  You have a lot of people living in those counties that work in mining, and a lot that work with coal power generation and a lot that work in transport.  Cambria went for Obama, and Fayette and Washington were close.

pa2011 is correct. J.J., as usual, is wrong.

[J. J.]

There are only like three "coal counties" in Southwest PA. They already flipped to McCain four years ago, and frankly, there are very few voters that live in them relative to rest of state. The rest of Southwest PA barely thinks of "coal" and doesn't consider itself anywhere part of "coal country."

Cambria, Somerset, Westmoreland, Fayette, Indiana, Armstrong, Greene, and Washington, without looking; that is just the areas south and east of Pittsburgh.  You have a lot of people living in those counties that work in mining, and a lot that work with coal power generation and a lot that work in transport.  Cambria went for Obama, and Fayette and Washington were close.

pa2011 is correct. J.J., as usual, is wrong.

Are you insane?   Since steel left the area, coal is the major "industry," though hospitals employ more in Cambria.  I checked the vote totals and and they are correct.

BTW, it isn't necessary to pass through Pittsburgh to go to across Ohio.