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  YouGov - State by State Polls
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Author Topic: YouGov - State by State Polls  (Read 2213 times)
afleitch
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« on: October 16, 2012, 05:17:27 PM »

http://today.yougov.com/news/2012/10/16/florida/

So, polling from 4th-11th October so these be old but here a few of them

Colorado 48-45 to Obama
Florida 48-47 to Obama
Iowa 50-46 to Obama
Nevada 50-45 to Obama
North Carolina 49-48 to Romney
Virginia 46-45 to Obama
Wisconsin 51-47 to Obama
Ohio 50-46 to Obama
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #1 on: October 16, 2012, 05:21:30 PM »

Well, I like the results... not sure if they're actually worth much though.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #2 on: October 16, 2012, 05:34:16 PM »

Well, I like the results... not sure if they're actually worth much though.

Considering these polls were conducted during Romney's best week, they're worth a lot.
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J. J.
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« Reply #3 on: October 16, 2012, 05:35:54 PM »

YouGov is not particularly good.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #4 on: October 16, 2012, 05:37:17 PM »

None of the polls we're getting are particular good. Just average 'em all together and you'll see what's what.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #5 on: October 16, 2012, 05:48:01 PM »

Connecticut
Obama 53
Romney 39

Minnesota
Obama 52
Romney 44

New Jersey
Obama 54
Romney 41

Washington
Obama 56
Romney 39

California
Obama 58
Romney 39

Illinois
Obama 58
Romney 38

Maryland
Obama 58
Romney 37

Massachusetts
Obama 55
Romney 36

New York
Obama 59
Romney 35

Arizona
Romney 52
Obama 43

Georgia
Romney 52
Obama 44

Indiana
Romney 53
Obama 41

Missouri
Romney 52
Obama 42

Tennessee
Romney 52
Obama 43

Texas
Romney 55
Obama 41
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Thomas D
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« Reply #6 on: October 16, 2012, 05:51:14 PM »

Those numbers look about right.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #7 on: October 16, 2012, 05:51:26 PM »

The numbers do look perfectly reasonable... but they haven't exactly got a good name, so they're chaff overall.
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ajb
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« Reply #8 on: October 16, 2012, 05:57:53 PM »

None of the polls we're getting are particular good. Just average 'em all together and you'll see what's what.
This. A lot of the polls showing Romney doing better in the states have been from pretty lousy pollsters/pollsters with no track record. So just take a deep breath and average.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #9 on: October 16, 2012, 06:03:13 PM »

This is what's worrying me... a lot of sh***y polls from no-names or completely in the tank (Koch-funded Gravis) forming a narrative, instead of reflecting it.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #10 on: October 16, 2012, 06:06:53 PM »

Obama is still in much better shape in TN than he was in '08. lol.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #11 on: October 16, 2012, 06:09:19 PM »

These numbers don't look unreasonable at all. YouGov did work in 2010 and did well.
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TrapperHawk
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« Reply #12 on: October 16, 2012, 06:12:29 PM »

These numbers corresponds closely to how I think the race will look on election day. For example, I've always thought that Obama would win Wisconsin 51-47. Never been a huge fan of YouGov, but this polling looks decent.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #13 on: October 16, 2012, 06:16:32 PM »

These numbers are not the numbers of a race that is tied, they seem to come from the time before the first debate even though polling dates are mostly after that debate. I'm not sure they can be relied upon.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #14 on: October 16, 2012, 09:52:02 PM »

Not bad numbers.
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morgieb
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« Reply #15 on: October 17, 2012, 12:24:58 AM »

If these numbers are true....that's pretty good news for us.
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afleitch
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« Reply #16 on: October 17, 2012, 04:51:22 AM »

Worth noting that YouGov have a good track record in the UK and are a well established company. They have been polling in the USA in each election cycle since 2004 and as mentioned before had a good track record in 2010, particularly in getting the races in Colorado and Washington right (which both Rass and PPP got wrong) and also called Nevada correctly. Their methodology may be innovative, but it is transparent.
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opebo
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« Reply #17 on: October 17, 2012, 06:10:41 AM »

Colorado 48-45 to Obama
Florida 48-47 to Obama
Iowa 50-46 to Obama
Nevada 50-45 to Obama

North Carolina 49-48 to Romney
Virginia 46-45 to Obama
Wisconsin 51-47 to Obama
Ohio 50-46 to Obama


Pretty encouraging in the underlined 'firewall'.  How old are these?
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afleitch
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« Reply #18 on: October 17, 2012, 06:31:32 AM »

Colorado 48-45 to Obama
Florida 48-47 to Obama
Iowa 50-46 to Obama
Nevada 50-45 to Obama

North Carolina 49-48 to Romney
Virginia 46-45 to Obama
Wisconsin 51-47 to Obama
Ohio 50-46 to Obama


Pretty encouraging in the underlined 'firewall'.  How old are these?

They were taken over the period of the 4th-11th October which was not the strongest period for Obama. They last polled the same states in September using Registered Voters and applied a Likely Voters screen for this round.
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afleitch
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« Reply #19 on: October 17, 2012, 07:15:33 AM »
« Edited: October 17, 2012, 07:24:42 AM by afleitch »

The map.

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Kalimantan
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« Reply #20 on: October 17, 2012, 09:58:01 AM »

Its as if the debates never happened
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
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« Reply #21 on: October 27, 2012, 04:02:21 PM »


That's because of their flawed polling method.  They recontacted people who had been likely voters in their September polls to do these October polls.  In doing so, they missed the increase in likely voters, which was largely among Romney voters, caused by the first debate.

Other than letting us know what was responsible for Romney's poll improvement, conversion of unlikely voters into likely voters rather than changing of people's opinions of the two candidates, these polls were essentially worthless.
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