Ontario Liberal leadership 2012

[Hatman 🍁]

Bumping this thread, as I think we should discuss this event in this thread.

With that in mind, here is my latest blog post about the Liberal leadership: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2013/01/ontario-liberal-leadership-race.html

No one discussed the map I made in the other thread, so I could only go off hunches as to why certain ridings went for certain candidates. I was hoping at least Hashemite could've given us his 2 cents.

[adma]

It seems to me that Wynne has the "Red Tories", and Pupatello has the "Blue Liberals".

[Holmes]

Interesting to see Timmins-Bay James go for Pupatello. Then again, there's only a handful of Liberals left there, so who knows?

[Hatman 🍁]

Interesting to see Timmins-Bay James go for Pupatello. Then again, there's only a handful of Liberals left there, so who knows?

Not one of the surprising finds. Italians+French = Pupatello (generally). Actually, I'm not sure how Italian Timmins is; does it have a sizable Italian population?

[RogueBeaver]

Pupatello's no sure thing in a by-election. Imagine if she lost.

http://theagenda.tvo.org/blog/agenda-blogs/can-sandra-pupatello-win-seat-windsor

[Hatman 🍁]

Pupatello's no sure thing in a by-election. Imagine if she lost.

http://theagenda.tvo.org/blog/agenda-blogs/can-sandra-pupatello-win-seat-windsor

She'd probably just call a general election first. But yeah, I'm sure the NDP is chomping at the bit to win back that riding.

[adma]

As someone in the race more as an ethnic-bloc-marshaller who winds up doing better than expected, I suppose Harinder Takhar is the Martin Singh of the bunch...

[Hatman 🍁]

As someone in the race more as an ethnic-bloc-marshaller who winds up doing better than expected, I suppose Harinder Takhar is the Martin Singh of the bunch...

Takhar won a lot of ridings, and as I noted, some of them quite surprising. No idea why he won Nepean-Carleton or Carleton-Miississippi Mills for example.

[RogueBeaver]

He had a riding target strategy per the Star earlier this week. Anyhoo, what's the current CW for election timing? If Pupatello will she get a seat and then do a Throne Speech + tinkering before dissolution sometime this summer? Wynne has said she'll recall the legislature immediately.

[RogueBeaver]

Ian Macdonald reminds us of Pupatello's ROO advantage, a point Kinsella has been making ad infinitum this week.

http://www.canada.com/opinion/columnists/Pupatello%2Bwaving%2BWindsor%2Bflag/7840788/story.html

[RogueBeaver]

Pupatello: Corporatism FTW! Or, "I favour a coalition of govt/business/labour." Same old, same old.

[RogueBeaver]

Star endorses Pupatello.

http://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorials/article/1318054--sandra-pupatello-is-ontario-liberals-best-bet-as-leader-editorial

[DL]

The Star editorial endorsing Pupatello is ridiculous. They call her a 'new face" and and agent of change - but she has been in the legislature for the last 18 years, was a senior cabinet minister during 8 out of 9 years that McGuinty was Premier and she is backed by all of Mcguinty's hacks and insiders.

[RogueBeaver]

Completely agree. Plus they just repealed 111. For all the talk of ideological divides between Pupatello and Wynne, the disagreement is really on how to restore corporatism, not corporatism itself.

[RogueBeaver]

Pupatello trashed her opponents as a bunch of second-raters in that same Star editorial meeting. Talk about lacking self-awareness, since if she wins it would require endorsements from those same people she just trashed. Add this to the "marvelous" McGuinty health record, importance of Grit patronage, awesomeness of corporatism, etc.

http://www.mississauga.com/news/article/1569048--ontario-and-canada-needs-a-new-set-of-politicians

Radwanski: Grits have to play for time, but even with Wynne they're very much on borrowed time.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/even-with-a-new-premier-ontario-legislature-still-a-house-of-cards/article7617386/

So still looks like there will be an election this year, though perhaps not in the spring.

[Holmes]

The Star is a total Liberal hack paper and have determined that Pupatello has the highest chance of electoral success, so they engage in double speak in order to anoint her.

Questions??

[Hatman 🍁]

So still looks like there will be an election this year, though perhaps not in the spring.

Tell us something we don't know.

[RogueBeaver]

Kennedy looking to team up with Takhar?

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1319216--ontario-liberal-leadership-gerard-kennedy-seeks-harinder-takhar-s-support-to-pass-pupatello-and-wynne

Pupatello: Premier or Oppo Leader?

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1319247--cohn-the-political-powers-of-sandra-pupatello-premier-or-opposition-leader

[RogueBeaver]

First ballot results around 12:30. Rae's speech was quite good IMO. The Wynne dance is going viral on Twitter.

[RogueBeaver]

1st Ballot

Eric Hoskins: 150
Gerard Kennedy: 281
Sandra Pupatello: 599
Charles Sousa: 222
Harinder Takhar: 235
Kathleen Wynne: 597

Good Lord, Wynne and Pupatello are only 2 votes apart.

[RogueBeaver]

Hoskins to Wynne.

[RogueBeaver]

Takhar to Pupatello.

[RogueBeaver]

2nd Ballot

Kennedy: 285
Pupatello: 817
Sousa: 203
Takhar: 18
Wynne: 750

[RogueBeaver]

Sousa and Kennedy going to Wynne. Premier Wynne it is.

[RogueBeaver]

Sousa will be Finance Minister.