OH-PPP: Obama 51%, Romney 46%

[Reds4]

Good poll for Obama. No doubt about that.

[Milton Friedman]

I know I'm going to get dumped on for putting this but I really doubt the credibility of PPP. Just to give you some facts about PPP polls. There have been 33 PPP Polls in Battleground States since June 15. Obama has led 30, Romney 1 and tied in 2. Romney led WI by 1 right after Ryan was selected. Obama was tied Romney in 2 of the 5 polls in NC.

Florida – 3 polls and Obama led all
North Carolina – 5 polls and Obama led in 3 and tied in 2
Virginia – 4 polls and Obama led all
New Hampshire – 1 poll and Obama led it
Ohio – 5 polls and Obama led all
Pennsylvania – 1 poll and Obama led it
Wisconsin – 4 polls and Obama led 3 and Romney 1
Iowa – 3 polls and Obama led all
Colorado – – 3 polls and Obama led all
Nevada – – 2 polls and Obama led both
Michigan – 2 polls and Obama led both
And then there's this. I can't post a link since I'm brand news but this is from Jennifer Rubin's WaPo piece on PPP.  I spoke by phone today with Wisconsin voter Dave Summers, who lives in the Madison area. He told me, “I got a survey. I don’t normally answer these calls, but I did [this time]. I started out pretty normal — President, Senate.” However, he said it then got weirder. The automatic survey asked if he had a favorable or unfavorable impression of Sean Hannity and Tucker Carlson. He said he was greatly disturbed when the automated call then asked, “Do you believe conservative media want white people to think Barack Obama hates them?” He said, “That bugged me.” The statistical idea that Obama is leading by 50 and capturing 3/4th of the earlier vote doesn't seem terribly plausible to me anyhow.

[Milton Friedman]

And now PPP says Kasich approval is 42/41 and generic Ohio House ballot is 44-42 and all the while Obama leads Mitt by 5. Really? Anyone want to explain these away?

[Devils30]

I think it says a lot about who would win Ohio TODAY when only the junk pollsters have Ronney ahead (and only by 1)

[Milton Friedman]

Why would more independents go to Romney and more GOP to Obama after their last poll and debate? Makes no sense. And 40% of Ohioans have no idea who Portman is? Sure.

[Alcon]

Why would more independents go to Romney and more GOP to Obama after their last poll and debate? Makes no sense. And 40% of Ohioans have no idea who Portman is? Sure.

Nah, this lines up with past polls.  Ignoring the existence of Rob Portman is a pretty popular hobby in Ohio.

[dspNY]

"Milton Friedman" misread the poll about Portman

It states that 40% of Ohioans have not formed an opinion of approval or disapproval on Portman, not that they have no idea who he is. An approval rating is different than a name recognition test

[Biden 2024]

Yes! We need a poll like this in VA and CO and were back on track!

[Milton Friedman]

"Milton Friedman" misread the poll about Portman

It states that 40% of Ohioans have not formed an opinion of approval or disapproval on Portman, not that they have no idea who he is. An approval rating is different than a name recognition test

Even if this is a trend, why are people so indifferent to their senator? And no one answered the whole PPP calling people with biased questions against conservatives thing. Isn't it pretty skewed that a pollster would call people and basically tell them conservative media personalities are racists?

[Minnesota Mike]

"Milton Friedman" misread the poll about Portman

It states that 40% of Ohioans have not formed an opinion of approval or disapproval on Portman, not that they have no idea who he is. An approval rating is different than a name recognition test

Even if this is a trend, why are people so indifferent to their senator? And no one answered the whole PPP calling people with biased questions against conservatives thing. Isn't it pretty skewed that a pollster would call people and basically tell them conservative media personalities are racists?

Message testing is part of the Biz. About a year ago I was polled by Ras and after the normal questions there were what I felt were leading questions. Sorry I can't remember specifics but it was a year ago I didn't think it was that big a deal. Kinda like watching the news on FOX or MSNBC, you have expect a certain amount of bias. As long as the horse race questions are asked before the message testing I don't think it really matters.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Can I just say while I might have the delightful new additions during election years (as I was one in 2006)... but a special shout out goes to those who descend 3 weeks before the election.

[Cliffy]

So Romney wins Indpendents by 5 but is losing by 5???  I don't think so.  

[Yank2133]

So Romney wins Indpendents by 5 but is losing by 5???  I don't think so.  

A lot of Republicans are calling themselves independents.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

How is it that people are making these confident assertions without knowing how different party ID is now...

[Oakvale]

Milton Friedman is spending his afterlife trolling the Atlas forum? How the mighty have fallen.

[Cliffy]

PPP is a push poll. I've been reading their polls for the last couple of months and they always have liberal biased questions in there,  and a lot of their samples are way out there, this is a better one for them.  Overall result you can pretty much count on them being off 3-4 points in Obama's favor.

I visited here last election and have been reading this fall, haven't wanted to post til recently, useless arguing with most of you on here.  Amusing how you discount sample arguments because it would upset your view of the race.  If the samples in a poll show a turnout that is greater than 08 or unlikely race breakdowns, you guys just think oh well that's swell must be so.    

[Likely Voter]

How is it that people are making these confident assertions without knowing how different party ID is now...

Due to some kind of simplistic belief that all states should have a party ID split of 33D/33I/33R and it has been and will always be the same.

[Brittain33]

They ask questions about republican pundits AFTER the horse race questions.

[pa2011]

Think it could be a little closer than this in Ohio, but it does line up with the Quinnipiac poll from mid week that showed Obama still up 6 in Ohio.  Yesterday, PPP tweeted its initial night of polling in Ohio showed a tight race. So wonder if Obama did particulary well there today, perhaps a sign of a Biden bump or that whatever bounce Romney had -- if ever existed in Ohio -- is fading?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

How is it that people are making these confident assertions without knowing how different party ID is now...

Due to some kind of simplistic belief that all states should have a party ID split of 33D/33I/33R and it has been and will always be the same.

Simplistic being the operative word

... it's so sad that someone with so much to give wouldn't feel comfortable enough to contribute.

Think it could be a little closer than this in Ohio, but it does line up with the Quinnipiac poll from mid week that showed Obama still up 6 in Ohio.  Yesterday, PPP tweeted its initial night of polling in Ohio showed a tight race. So wonder if Obama did particulary well there today, perhaps a sign of a Biden bump or that whatever bounce Romney had -- if ever existed in Ohio -- is fading?

Potentially an increase in Dem participation in LV screens?

[Cliffy]

How is it that people are making these confident assertions without knowing how different party ID is now...

Due to some kind of simplistic belief that all states should have a party ID split of 33D/33I/33R and it has been and will always be the same.

Right.....

[Cliffy]

Biden didn't get a bump or it would have shown up in the national polls and Romney's became a trend.  Speaking of, we're expected to believe PPP that in Ohio Biden won the debate by 11, when SUSA had Biden winning by 7 in California???  CNN and others had him losing nationally, highly doubt he won in ohio by 11 if at all.


I don't buy for a second either that Dem enthusiasm is up, nothing points to that, certainly not the absentee and registrations this time around versus last time.

[pbrower2a]

PPP is a push poll. I've been reading their polls for the last couple of months and they always have liberal biased questions in there,  and a lot of their samples are way out there, this is a better one for them.  Overall result you can pretty much count on them being off 3-4 points in Obama's favor.

I visited here last election and have been reading this fall, haven't wanted to post til recently, useless arguing with most of you on here.  Amusing how you discount sample arguments because it would upset your view of the race.  If the samples in a poll show a turnout that is greater than 08 or unlikely race breakdowns, you guys just think oh well that's swell must be so.    

These are the first three questions asked (except that Q3 obviously implies an earlier split between those who have already voted and those who have yet to vote). But all in all the potentially-leading questions come much later:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

A push poll supplies a potentially derogatory question that might alter a respondent's answer. The prime example was the question during the 2000 Republican Convention of whether one would vote for a nominee with a black baby -- like John McCain.

Truth is, the child wasn't really black (adopted in Calcutta) and there was no sordid sex life of Senator John McCain... but just think of the implications. That poll wrecked John McCain as a candidate due to the insinuations of 'disgraceful' behavior.

A push poll directed against President Obama might be worded "In view of unemployment higher than it was in 2006 and bloated deficits, would you vote for Barack Hussein Obama or for Mitt Romney?" One directed against Mitt Romney might be worded, "In view of the need for steady leadership in foreign policy would you vote for Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?"

Pollsters do not exist to create the narrative; they exist ideally to give an honest chronicle of public opinion.  

[pa2011]

Biden didn't get a bump or it would have shown up in the national polls and Romney's became a trend.  Speaking of, we're expected to believe PPP that in Ohio Biden won the debate by 11, when SUSA had Biden winning by 7 in California???  CNN and others had him losing nationally, highly doubt he won in ohio by 11 if at all.

It wouldn't necessarily show up much yet in the multi day trackers yet, since those results released today would have only included post- Debate responses on Friday night. And the Reuters poll showed Biden had a 7 point edge nationally on who won the debate, so not completely unbelievable Ohio this year edges a bit more than D than rest of country. Regardless, we get your point. You think this poll is bunk. No need to beat a dead horse. There will be plenty more polls to get be happy or worked up about.

[Minnesota Mike]

I don't buy for a second either that Dem enthusiasm is up, nothing points to that, certainly not the absentee and registrations this time around versus last time.

While I don't know that Dem voter enthusiasm is up the early early voting numbers certainly do not point to it being down.