Mason Dixon -- Romney burst into 7-point lead in Florida

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Yeah, no. Obama never even had a 7 point lead in Florida when he was riding high in September. I doubt a debate shifted the race 8 points in Romney's favor.

Actually, there was a Quinnipiac poll that had Obama up by 9% in September.

I didn't really buy that and I don't quite buy this one either. Mason-Dixon has always been friendlier to Romney than most here.

Plus, remember that even John Kerry only lost Florida by 5%.

M-D nailed Florida in 2008.  But no way is Obama losing Florida by more than Kerry.  

Either way this poll is not too good for Obama.  Biden's gotta score a TD tonight.  

[ajc0918]

Mason-Dixon is one of the best pollsters out there.  Possibly an outlier, but I doubt it.

Hispanics are generally Cuban, and Republican.  As noted, Hispanics seemed impressed with Romney's debate performance. 

No, Cubans are generally Republican, but they're shifting more towards the Democrats as the older anti-castro Cubans die out. Puerto Ricans are the fastest growing hispanic population and they're very democratic.

Hispanics as a whole in Florida are moving towards the dems.

[krazen1211]

Romney leading with Hispanics? Don't think so.

http://www.cfnews13.com/content/news/cfnews13/news/article.html/content/news/articles/cfn/2012/10/11/florida_decides_poll.html#results

Bzzzt. Republicans frequently win Florida Hispanics.

Obama won Hispanics by 15 points in 2008, i just don't see a 17 point swing given the fact Dems have been making big gains in Hispanic voter Registration in Floria, old anti Castro Cubans are making up a smaller percentage of the electorate every year and nationally Rommney is getting killed in the polls of Hispanic voters.

Well, you could 'just not see it', but President Bush won Hispanics by 12 points in 2004. There is plenty of precedent for actions you are deeming improbable due to a .3% gain in voter registration.

More recent elections have Marco Rubio and Rick Scott winning or tying among these Hispanics and even the other Florida polls this week have them at 46-44.

But continue on. Romney is being fueled by whites in any case.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I respect MD, but will join the chorus of 'uh, no' - even the best pollsters throw out a clanger once in a while.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

What these polls have actually shown is how little anything that happened before about a month ago really matters that much. We've all been wasting our time. Good night.

[Eraserhead]

Romney needs Florida. Obama doesn't. That's also something worth remembering before anyone lights their hair on fire.

[Devils30]

Even Rasmussen has Romney only up 3 in NC so I doubt he's up anywhere near 7 here.

[krazen1211]

Even Rasmussen has Romney only up 3 in NC so I doubt he's up anywhere near 7 here.

That argument would make a lot more sense if Ras wasn't the most liberal pollster on the tracker right now.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Romney may have a seven point lead now - at the height of his bounce, but he won't win the state by that much unless things unravel for Obama even further before election day. Mason-Dixon is the best pollster in Florida. I won't sit here and claim they somehow have lost it because they are showing this result. But it won't be like this on election day.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

That argument would make a lot more sense if Ras wasn't the most liberal pollster on the tracker right now.

This just goes to show how many right-wing spam pollsters there are out there.

[Reaganfan]

New Poll: Florida President by Mason-Dixon on 2012-10-11

Summary: D: 44%, R: 51%, I: 0%, U: 0%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Even Rasmussen has Romney only up 3 in NC so I doubt he's up anywhere near 7 here.

That argument would make a lot more sense if Ras wasn't the most liberal pollster on the tracker right now.

Awww... the right is turning on Ras

But the issue to consider.... Obama won the latino vote in FL 57-42 (and only lost the Cuban vote 52-46), so while I buy Obama has lost support... the idea that Romney, of all people, could turn around that to actually lead?

[J. J.]

Mason-Dixon is one of the best pollsters out there.  Possibly an outlier, but I doubt it.

Hispanics are generally Cuban, and Republican.  As noted, Hispanics seemed impressed with Romney's debate performance. 

Voter Registration numbers of Hispanics in Florida

2008 (General Election Book Close)

Dem 37.9%
Rep 32.9%%
Other 29.3%

2012 (Primary election Book Close)

Dem 38.2%
Rep 29.9%
Other 31.2%

Do you have a link?

http://election.dos.state.fl.us/voter-registration/statistics/elections.shtml

You will have to dig through the different reports yourself but it is all there.

There number were as of July 16, 2012.  Also, the earlier numbers, 2004, don't treat Hispanic as a "race."  You have people that are Hispanic, that were registered a number of years ago and identified as white (it is probably 6-10% of the electorate).  There is also the relatively high number of independents that are Hispanics and tend to vote Republican.

[krazen1211]

Even Rasmussen has Romney only up 3 in NC so I doubt he's up anywhere near 7 here.

That argument would make a lot more sense if Ras wasn't the most liberal pollster on the tracker right now.

Awww... the right is turning on Ras

But the issue to consider.... Obama won the latino vote in FL 57-42 (and only lost the Cuban vote 52-46), so while I buy Obama has lost support... the idea that Romney, of all people, could turn around that to actually lead?

The alternative explanation, as evidenced by people like President Bush, Charlie Crist 2006, Rick Scott, Marco Rubio, and 3 Miami Dade Congressional Republicans, just to name 7, is that 42-57 is not a typical performance for a Republican candidate.

What's wrong with Mr. Romney that was not so with Rick Scott?

[Brittain33]

Unlike the other men on your list, Mr. Romney ran vigorously against illegal immigration in the primary, including in Florida. Cuban immigrants may by definition be legal but people perceive it as an attack on them to impress people who are uncomfortable with Hispanic immigration.

[You kip if you want to...]

This Romney bounce is currently reminding me of Cleggmania.

Especially the fact that subsequent media coverage of the debate has been more important than the actual debate.

Though one thing with Cleggmania (how much fun is that going to be to describe to people in the future?) was that there was an established pattern of false Centre surges during election campaigns.

And then it fell flat on its face at 10pm on Polling Day...

[krazen1211]

Unlike the other men on your list, Mr. Romney ran vigorously against illegal immigration in the primary, including in Florida. Cuban immigrants may by definition be legal but people perceive it as an attack on them to impress people who are uncomfortable with Hispanic immigration.

Well, that is a nice theory, but one can examine recent polls on this forum of California, Nevada, and Florida, and note that Romney is gaining among Hispanics.

Or, one can examine that Rick Scott ran vigorously against illegal immigration, including endorsing the recent arizona law, in the 2010 elections and still got half of Hispanics.

[RogueBeaver]

Probably not 7, more like 3-5 when all's said and done.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

...No.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Unlike the other men on your list, Mr. Romney ran vigorously against illegal immigration in the primary, including in Florida. Cuban immigrants may by definition be legal but people perceive it as an attack on them to impress people who are uncomfortable with Hispanic immigration.

A ridiculous perception in general and especially with Romney who has made clear his support for legal, even at higher levels, immigration into this country at the same time he uttered those words, "self-deportation". Hence why the candidate of "self-deportation" won Hispanics against a candidate far more lenient on illegals, by more then he won the primary overall by.

And Mason-Dixon actually correctly polled Hispanics in the Florida primary, unlike others like PPP, who had Gingrich up significantly amongst them.

[Umengus]

MD is considered like the gold stantard pollster in FL but the firms was very bad in NV in 2010 and I have the impression that it tends to favor republicans by some points so, Romney leading in FL but not by 7p.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Even Rasmussen has Romney only up 3 in NC so I doubt he's up anywhere near 7 here.

That argument would make a lot more sense if Ras wasn't the most liberal pollster on the tracker right now.

(and only lost the Cuban vote 52-46)

Indeed. I doubt Obama will win the Cuban vote (they came back to the GOP pretty heavily in 2010), but by and large Cubans in Florida are really Lean R. Outside Florida and especially in the other major Cuban-American hub (NYC and North Jersey), I'm fairly certain Obama won them.

[Gustaf]

I think people need to recall margins of error here. This is probably at the high end of reality from Romney's perspective, but nationally things seem to be tied right now (give or take a little). I could see Romney being up in Florida by 5% in that national environment.

Isn't MD traditionally one of the better pollsters in Florida specifically?

[minionofmidas]

It's where they're from.

[J. J.]

Isn't MD traditionally one of the better pollsters in Florida specifically?

The Vorlon considers him the best for FL.  His track record is excellent.