Who has a better chance of winning their party's nomination?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Bayh. Bayh is far closer to the party's mainstream than Guiliani, Philip keeps posting his "ultra-liberal" record which is hardly ultra-liberal but does show so. Bayh is pro-choice, just not on every issue, while Guiliani is 100% pro-choice and basically out of the mainstream on every social issue.

I'm posting this mainly because I have to laugh at any Republican who honestly believes Guiliani has a snowball's chance in hell of winning the nomation saying there is no way Bayh would ever be nominated.

[Moooooo]

Both will be rejected by their party's base.  Bayh is hated by the far left.  They refer to him as "republican lite, dino, pretty boy running off his daddy's legacy." Same goes for Giuliani.  He will never get out of a Republican primary.  In the 2000 primary, the base of the Republican party smeared the hell out of John McCain and they WILL NOT hesitate to do the same to Giuliani.  His pro-gay rights, pro-choice, pro-gun control views will be rejected so quick he wont know what hit him.  But of the two, I think Bayh has a better chance of winning the nomination for this reason alone.  Democrats are desperate for a win and most will take it anyway they can get it.  For that, Bayh is the answer.

[Rob]

Easily Bayh. This would be even more true if Kerry had lost in a landslide.

[DanielX]

Bayh, but neither have much chance. Giuliani is actually rather scandalous. Bayh isn't especially, but - unless he is very good at courting the left - he won't be able to win them over. The Dems are likely to either run a main-line liberal like Richardson, or a 'multi-color' like Hillary (what is she anyways? one minute she's a centrist, another she's a radlib!). Also, a fairly radical candidate (like Dean - at least the way he is seen now) might win - almost guaranteeing a Republican victory.

Bayh might end up as the Veep candidate, though.

[Sam Spade]

Both will be rejected by their party's base.  Bayh is hated by the far left.  They refer to him as "republican lite, dino, pretty boy running off his daddy's legacy." Same goes for Giuliani.  He will never get out of a Republican primary.  In the 2000 primary, the base of the Republican party smeared the hell out of John McCain and they WILL NOT hesitate to do the same to Giuliani.  His pro-gay rights, pro-choice, pro-gun control views will be rejected so quick he wont know what hit him.  But of the two, I think Bayh has a better chance of winning the nomination for this reason alone.  Democrats are desperate for a win and most will take it anyway they can get it.  For that, Bayh is the answer.

I think this analysis is probably correct.

The only thing, and I repeat, the only thing Giulani has going for him in a nomination run is that he is perhaps the toughest campaigner and probably one of the best stump speakers I've ever seen.  Everyone from NYC remembers his daily press conferences; they were more entertaining that most of what is on television, frankly.

However, that being said, everything else works against him.

On the whole, Bayh stands the better chance, but there are some forces that are going to work against him in 2008 that he has no control over. 

He would be a good potential VP candidate, though I think Richardson might be better, since my guess is that no matter who the Reps nominate, Jeb Bush will probably be VP.

And then there's the "senator" problem.  That's a biggie, more than most people think.  On the whole, I don't think either two of those guys will be the party's candidate respectively.

[AuH2O]

I have to say Guiliani, because the GOP is better at ramming through their preferred candidate. He is technically a worse fit for the party base.

To put it into perspective though, these are my odds:

Bayh- 750:1
Guiliani- 250:1

[Alcon]

It depends on who's running, for God's sakes!

[Hitchabrut]

Bayh

[Democratic Hawk]

Bayh will encounter problems with the "looney left", while Giuliani will face opposition from the "rabid right"

That said, I think the Democrats are more likely to go moderate than the GOP but, I suspect, it will only happen if moderate Democratic voters trimuph over the left-liberal activists in the primaries. The majority of Democratic voters are moderate on national level (just) and even more significantly in crucial swing states, while the majority of GOP voters are conservative. As long as the Democratic Party selects a liberal candidate, you are going to have a polarised election - which means advantage GOP. Conservatives outnumber liberals 3 to 2!

Both guys if nominated could face an ultra-left and ultra-right third candidates, which would make for a very interesting election indeed

Dave

[nclib]

Bayh, since the far-right controls more of the GOP than the far-left controls the Dems.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The south isn't going to like this.

[Redefeatbush04]

The republicans already feel they have a mandate for their conservative agenda. The democrats are looking only to win this thing, and they know they are going to have to reach across the aisle to do so. Though I doubt either one will survive the primaries (favor more partisan candidates), Bayh is more likely to be chosen.

[zachman]

Giuliani is more ambitious, and I don't picture Bayh running. I voted Giuliani.

[PBrunsel]

I think Giuliani has a snowballs chance in hell of getting through the primaries. Even if he did win the nomination, Roy Moore would enter the race as an independent, IMHO.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I think Giuliani has a snowballs chance in hell of getting through the primaries. Even if he did win the nomination, Roy Moore would enter the race as an independent, IMHO.

Bayh vs. Guilani vs. Moore - It's the Democrat's only plan to win Mississippi.

[PBrunsel]

I think Giuliani has a snowballs chance in hell of getting through the primaries. Even if he did win the nomination, Roy Moore would enter the race as an independent, IMHO.

Bayh vs. Guilani vs. Moore - It's the Democrat's only plan to win Mississippi.

Moore would win Missississippi. He would win all of the Thurmond and Wallace states plus Utah or Idaho. That's what I feel would happen if the Judge ran.

[Alcon]

I think Giuliani has a snowballs chance in hell of getting through the primaries. Even if he did win the nomination, Roy Moore would enter the race as an independent, IMHO.

Bayh vs. Guilani vs. Moore - It's the Democrat's only plan to win Mississippi.

Moore would win Missississippi. He would win all of the Thurmond and Wallace states plus Utah or Idaho. That's what I feel would happen if the Judge ran.

Maybe - Idaho would actually be odd. The northern part is significantly less Mormon, and actually has libertarian leans. The lower part is very socially conservative and would vote for Moore in an instant. Boise would be quite a battleground.

This split might even give a small chance of enterance for a Democrat to win Idaho in what would make for a very weird election map.

[12th Doctor]

The south isn't going to like this.

Of course, they are all messed up in the head and so intollerant that they can't understand a joke when they see one.

Well, by your rationale, I guess I'm done for, because I know there are pictures of me in drag out there.

[Smash255]

Bayh has a much better chance.  bayh isn't as liberal as many Dems would like, but he's no conservative either, pretty moderate.

Rudy on the other hand is so faar from the Republicans on social issues.  rudy is pro-gay rights (hasn't come out & say he is pro gay marriage, but has hinted at it) he is pro-gun control and he is pro-choice, and disagrees with the law against PBA.  He is 100% from the base of the GOP on social issues.  He is probably more socially liberal than 1/2 or even 2/3 of the Dems in Congress

[ian]

I just voted Bayh, but y'know, Giuliani has way more of a chance.  Iowans and New Hampsirites have no clue what's best for the Democratic Party; however, according to a recent poll I saw, Giuliani was supported most by his party right now, compared to all other candidates.

[Snowe08]

I think that both could potentially benefit - albeit in different ways - from the unusual circumstances of their respective primaries.

The Democrats will, I suspect, be incredibly hungry to win back power. If Bayh can clearly articulate an agenda that might help the Democrats carry a handfull of red states, without sacrificing too much ground for the taste of those who thought that John Kerry was "too centrist", and if Dean can hold the Democrats together until 2008, then Bayh has as good a chance as anyone, especially since I think that the same hunger for power will place a millstone around Sen. Clinton's neck.

For Rudy - as with any moderate Republican, including the one whom I'm supporting - the challenge is how to get through a potentially lethal primary season. But my suspicion is that everyone will run in the 2008 GOP primary - the absence of a clear successor to the President, combined with the competing factions within the party, will induce many candidates to stake out their vision. I suspect that you will see Rudy, Mark Sanford, Bill Frist, Newt Gingrich, Christine Whitman, Bill Owens, Ralph Reed, John McCain, maybe Pat Buchanan, and many, many others all trying to bring the party to their views by fiat of their nomination. This widely divided field makes the result complex and hard to predict, which may potentially move the victory of a moderate like Sen. Snowe from impossible to merely very unlikely. And unlikely is still workable with.

~Simon

[Smash255]

I just voted Bayh, but y'know, Giuliani has way more of a chance.  Iowans and New Hampsirites have no clue what's best for the Democratic Party; however, according to a recent poll I saw, Giuliani was supported most by his party right now, compared to all other candidates.

Granted, but , most people putside of NY (with the exception of those who follow politics real closely) know how far to the left Rudy is on social issues.  This would be well known come primary time.