TN-4: Does Scott DesJarlais have a Dem opponent?

[Brittain33]

Because there's a phone transcript of him pressuring his mistress to have an abortion in 2000. She was his patient.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/10/scott-desjarlais-abortion-pro-life_n_1953136.html

[Torie]

Oh dear. That pushes all the wrong buttons down there doesn't it? 

[DrScholl]

State Senator Eric Stewart is in the race and is a credible challenger. It's a district that would elect a Blue Dog under the right circumstances.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That... looks bad, doesn't it?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

R +1

[Miles]

Yes, Eric Stewart was about as good a candidate Democrats could draft here.

[Miles]

FWIW, this district actually got bluer in redistricting, though marginally. It went from 64/34 McCain to 62/37, IIRC.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This is utterly ancestral Democratic territory, of course. Large parts once represented by Al Gore. What's interesting is that in 2010 it looked as though it hadn't just been gained by the Republicans (who had, after all, held it in the recent past anyway), but that it had shifted into a safe seat.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

This is utterly ancestral Democratic territory, of course. Large parts once represented by Al Gore. What's interesting is that in 2010 it looked as though it hadn't just been gained by the Republicans (who had, after all, held it in the recent past anyway), but that it had shifted into a safe seat.

So do you think the Democrats still don't have a shot here?  I imagine Obama will be a bit of a drag around these parts although Stewart is probably the best candidate the Democrats could've recruited.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I haven't got a clue; which is what makes this very interesting, perhaps as some sort of test case.

[Svensson]

R +1

Just by the by, that joke was last funny about never.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

R +1

Just by the by, that joke was last funny about never.

Sorry to disappoint, I'll admit it is low-hanging fruit.   However, I find it funny and that's the important thing

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That joke really only makes sense if used in a race where krazen first stated it seriously that shows that it's not likely (like a poll showing Baldwin over Thompson.) Used in every thread makes it kind of a pointless meme.

[Svensson]

R +1

Just by the by, that joke was last funny about never.

Sorry to disappoint, I'll admit it is low-hanging fruit.   However, I find it funny and that's the important thing

Given the horrible puns I make in my daily life...fair enough.

[morgieb]

Still Lean/Likely R, this part of the country has been trending R pretty hard.

However, if Obama performs here as polling has said he might...

What's TN-08 looking like? Isn't it "only" R+6?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Problem with TN-08 is that a Jerry Sandusky (R) vs. Generic Democrat race probably wouldn't be too far off from the Obama vs. McCain numbers. Most of that R vote is HARD support.

[Miles]

Still Lean/Likely R, this part of the country has been trending R pretty hard.

However, if Obama performs here as polling has said he might...

What's TN-08 looking like? Isn't it "only" R+6?

Most of the local Democratic counties were transferred to TN-07 and TN-08 now takes in a much larger part of the Memphis suburbs. Its now up to 64% McCain.

[morgieb]

Still Lean/Likely R, this part of the country has been trending R pretty hard.

However, if Obama performs here as polling has said he might...

What's TN-08 looking like? Isn't it "only" R+6?

Most of the local Democratic counties were transferred to TN-07 and TN-08 now takes in a much larger part of the Memphis suburbs. Its now up to 64% McCain.

Aah, ok.

Is TN-07 really R too?

[Miles]

Still Lean/Likely R, this part of the country has been trending R pretty hard.

However, if Obama performs here as polling has said he might...

What's TN-08 looking like? Isn't it "only" R+6?

Most of the local Democratic counties were transferred to TN-07 and TN-08 now takes in a much larger part of the Memphis suburbs. Its now up to 64% McCain.

Aah, ok.

Is TN-07 really R too?

Yes; it was "unpacked" a bit with the Republican redistricting, but its still 62% McCain.

[minionofmidas]

FWIW, this district actually got bluer in redistricting, though marginally. It went from 64/34 McCain to 62/37, IIRC.

Not really bluer. They added harder (suburban) R support.


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New:

[Meeker]

Stewart hasn't raised much money as of the pre-primary report. He went on the air last week but I presume it's just a small cable buy, though Chattanooga is probably a really cheap broadcast market so who knows.

DesJarlais' fundraising hasn't been stellar either but it's been better than Stewart's.

[Miles]

FWIW, this district actually got bluer in redistricting, though marginally. It went from 64/34 McCain to 62/37, IIRC.

Not really bluer. They added harder (suburban) R support.

I thought that too at first, but in DRA, the REP average of the old one was 56.4% and the new one is less than 57% too, so the change isn't as dramatic as I thought downballot. I guess the DEM average in Rutherford county could have been inflated somewhat though because it always elected Gordon in landslides.

[Meeker]

DesJarlais raised another $200k since the July pre-primary report, bringing his haul to $1.1 million. He has $600k cash on hand as of 9/30.

Still waiting on Stewart's.

[Meeker]

Stewart raised $114k bringing his total to $482k. He spent $182k and had $85k CoH as of 9/30.

Not a joke of a campaign but not probably not close enough to make a real race of this.

[Bacon King]

TN-04 News!



A watchdog group has filed a complaint about with the Tennessee Department of Health over DesJarlais's conduct.

Mitt Romney's campaign quietly removed DesJarlais's endorsement from their website last week, without making a comment on the matter.

DesJarlais has responded to everything by highlighting that it was a difficult time for him, in the midst of a long two-year divorce, but emphasizes that she ended up not being pregnant so she didn't get an abortion. He also points out that he's been happily married for the last decade, and claims these allegations were brought up by "a disgruntled, defeated ex-congressman, a vindictive ex-wife, and a desperate Democratic candidate." TNGOP has released a statement supporting DesJarlais, but when reporters asked Governor Haslam and Senator Alexander about it they both dodged the question and made no comment in support of the Congressman.

Stewart's first ad is up. It attacks DesJarlais for voting to raise taxes, trying to "destroy Medicare", increasing the deficit, opposing pay raises for soldiers, and "chickening out" of a debate with Stewart.