Pew apparently has Romney leading Obama 49-45.

[AmericanNation]

You know what's funny about a question in this poll, it asks "Who Would Help the Middle Class?", and in the past month, Romney has surged 8 points on that question. And you know who's driving that surge? Upper Income Americans who 47% said he did last month, and now 68% do now.

47%, eh?

I just realized the irony. That's beautiful.

Sometimes when that commercial comes on and you aren't looking at the emotionalistic pictures on the screen it sounds like a pro Romney ad.  It really doesn't make sense to keep hammering it because the more you hear it, the better it sounds for Romney.   

[Skill and Chance]

You know what's funny about a question in this poll, it asks "Who Would Help the Middle Class?", and in the past month, Romney has surged 8 points on that question. And you know who's driving that surge? Upper Income Americans who 47% said he did last month, and now 68% do now.

47%, eh?

I just realized the irony. That's beautiful.

Sometimes when that commercial comes on and you aren't looking at the emotionalistic pictures on the screen it sounds like a pro Romney ad.  It really doesn't make sense to keep hammering it because the more you hear it, the better it sounds for Romney.   

Huh? Do you really think the message that elderly people, disabled people and students need to pay more taxes/are free-riding is a winning one outside of Tea Party circles?

[AmericanNation]

You know what's funny about a question in this poll, it asks "Who Would Help the Middle Class?", and in the past month, Romney has surged 8 points on that question. And you know who's driving that surge? Upper Income Americans who 47% said he did last month, and now 68% do now.

47%, eh?

I just realized the irony. That's beautiful.

Sometimes when that commercial comes on and you aren't looking at the emotionalistic pictures on the screen it sounds like a pro Romney ad.  It really doesn't make sense to keep hammering it because the more you hear it, the better it sounds for Romney.   

Huh? Do you really think the message that elderly people, disabled people and students need to pay more taxes/are free-riding is a winning one outside of Tea Party circles?

The commercial has the audio of Romney speaking, which when (as I said) you don't look at the intellectual stretch/leap/unfounded pictures on the screen and LISTEN TO THE AD it sounds good and bad.  Bad because Romney is inarticulately hitting on a great and important point, but good because he is touching on them.  The inarticulate part is leaving out little bits of info/words that everyone knows he meant to say... so when you know the info it sounds really good.  It also makes Obama look small and petty if you think about it for more than a second.   

( )= left out
 
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B9xCCaseop4

"There are 47% (An alarming number) of the people who will vote for the president no matter what ..."

"... who are dependent upon government, who believe that they are victims, who believe that government has a responsibility to care for them, who believe that they are entitled to health care, to food, to housing, to you-name-it ..."

"... And they will (largely) vote for this president no matter what ..."

"... And so my job is not to worry about (gearing my political campaign toward) those people. I'll never convince them they should take personal responsibility and care for their lives."   

...That's a winning message, That's a populist message, why would you put all your ad money into the other guy making a good point?

[Devils30]

I'm unsure how this poll is weighted but 83% of the respondents here were white, way too high to be legit. I know its weighted but I'd like to see more. Additionally, the number of southerners is really high and white southerners well, vote a lot differently than whites elsewhere.

[cinyc]

I'm unsure how this poll is weighted but 83% of the respondents here were white, way too high to be legit. I know its weighted but I'd like to see more. Additionally, the number of southerners is really high and white southerners well, vote a lot differently than whites elsewhere.

Again:

"The combined landline and cell phone sample are weighted using an iterative technique that matches gender, age, education, race, Hispanic origin and nativity and region to parameters from the March 2011 Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey and population density to parameters from the 2010 Decennial Census."

So no.

[Badger]

I'm looking at the "raw data" from the internals, and it appears those WERE closely approximate the numbers used for their top line results. e.g. Romneys 51-43 lead among men and tied at 47 among woman average out to the 49-45 lead reported. The other subsample "raw numbers" also tend to correlate these calculations.

So this poll's results indeed appear based on Pew's sample being 83% non-Hispanic white (and only 5% Hispanic!) and having more seniors than all voters under 50 (including only 7.5% under 30). Not at all an an accurate model of what the composite vote will actually be, to put it mildly.

If that encourages Obama supporters to simply whistle past the graveyard about this poll, two other things should be noted. First, the weighting towards votes over 50 somewhat HELPS Obama in this poll as he leads handily among 50-64 year olds (36% of the total sample). Secondly, even if this poll is an outlier, there's obviously a national shift to Romney reflected in most other polls. It's uncertain whether the good jobs report has helped blunt some much needed enthusiasm for Romney among the base, and even among independents now willing to give him a second look.

[technical support]

It is extremely unlikely that 21% of the nation's Democrats changed parties as a result of one debate. So there is a fair chance that the Pew poll is an outlier that undersampled Democrats and oversampled Republicans. For comparison purposes, two other national polls hav also been done entirely since the first debate. Rasmussen has it as a tie at 48% to 48% and Gallup has it at 47% to 47%.

[J. J.]

Presumably people who responded to the poll did not want to acknowledge voting for a chump who got his rear kicked repeatedly. Shrug.

Yeah that .... got the whuppin' he deserved, eh krazen?  Please try to watch your language in order to avoid being perceived as using racist codings.

You seem to perceive racist codings throughout the electorate. Didn't you tar the state of Ohio as such? I would suspect that such is fueling the Democrat collapse among whites.

You know what; Opebo is right.  I am.

My next door neighbor is a dressmaker.  She does beautiful work in her home business; she is a decent, honest, and godly woman.  Because of the economy (and some health issues) she can't do it and had to go on welfare.  My landlady's ex-husband, a pastor, had to declare bankruptcy.  Numerous businesses in my neighborhood have closed.  My play nephew, with a degree from Millersville, has been unemployed for a year.  Obama has hurt them, my friends, my neighbors and my neighborhood. 

I must be racist because I don't want to see my friends, my neighbors and the people in my neighborhood hurt like this, and they are all of the same race.  It just happens that they are all black.

[krazen1211]

This outlier was just confirmed by another outlier.

Haha.