Obama up 4 in Pennsylvania

[pa2011]

Allentown Morning Call --  Obama 49. Romney 45 (In late September, it was Obama 49 Romney 42). Though GOP base is coming home, looks like PA will remain out of reach for Romney, barring a major shift nationally.

http://www.mcall.com/news/nationworld/blog_pennsylvania_ave/mc-read-muhlenbergtmc-pa-presidential-election-survey-10152012,0,1372801.htmlstory

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Pennsylvania President by Muhlenberg College on 2012-10-14

Summary: D: 49%, R: 45%, I: 3%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[J. J.]

I'll believe it when I see F & M, but I do think it is closing.

[Bacon King]

Not really sure what to make of this poll. The methodology says they weigh the results by region, but the biggest region is the one called "Remainder of the state," where 44% of the respondents are from (basically, not Philly metro area, Allegheny, or "Southwest"); I think it's kind of silly to weigh a poll by something like this when almost half of the respondents pick what's basically the NOTA option. This could definitely cause some random swings when the different parts of the "remainder of the state" are polled disproportionately between surveys.

[krazen1211]

Confirmed by the latest Quinnipiac poll.

[J. J.]

Not really sure what to make of this poll. The methodology says they weigh the results by region, but the biggest region is the one called "Remainder of the state," where 44% of the respondents are from (basically, not Philly metro area, Allegheny, or "Southwest"); I think it's kind of silly to weigh a poll by something like this when almost half of the respondents pick what's basically the NOTA option. This could definitely cause some random swings when the different parts of the "remainder of the state" are polled disproportionately between surveys.

That does make sense with PA voting patterns.  SW, SE, and the T.