Romney's path without Ohio, Hint: There is none

[Niemeyerite]

Yes there is, and not a too unreasonable one:

I think it is less likely than an OH win, but it is possible.

So, If Obama wants to be reelected, he has to keep campaigning (a bit) in MI, WI and PA, while spending the rest of the money on OH, NH and NV or IA .

[Simfan34]

Yes there is, and not a too unreasonable one:

I think it is less likely than an OH win, but it is possible.

I mean that map doesn't even look silly.

[Likely Voter]

If we assume Romney's baseline to win is McCain+IN, NC, FL, VA, CO. Then he has five routes to win:
1. OH
2. NV+IA (269/269 tie) +NH (win)
3. WI + anything
4. MI
5. PA

They seem to have given up on MI and PA. They have been trying in WI but it doesn't look any easier than OH at this point. So that does leave him with just NV+IA+NH. Of those NV would be the hardest but its doable.

[J. J.]

Yes there is, and not a too unreasonable one:

I think it is less likely than an OH win, but it is possible.

So, If Obama wants to be reelected, he has to keep campaigning (a bit) in MI, WI and PA, while spending the rest of the money on OH, NH and NV or IA .

Well, if he had limited resources, and I had to pick two states, it would be OH and either NV or IA. 

I have not included WI in the map, but it is another one.

I think the easiest path is OH, bit it certainly isn't the only path.

[pbrower2a]

This race is OHVA

Nice pun based upon two state abbreviations.

[BigSkyBob]

The real question is whether, or not, Barack Obama has a reasonable path to victory without taking Ohio. Florida seems to be slipping away. If he loses in Virginia, he has to sweep NV, CO, IA, NH and WI, which doesn't seem to be too realistic. Virginia, too, seems to be slipping away. CO and NH could easily replace VA for Romney, leaving IA or NV as his path to victory.

[opebo]

The real question is whether, or not, Barack Obama has a reasonable path to victory without taking Ohio. Florida seems to be slipping away. If he loses in Virginia, he has to sweep NV, CO, IA, NH and WI, which doesn't seem to be too realistic. Virginia, too, seems to be slipping away. CO and NH could easily replace VA for Romney, leaving IA or NV as his path to victory.

Yeah, they're mirror images of one another - they both need Ohio.

[Vosem]

The election does have an 'other pole', which is NV+IA+CO; should Romney sweep all three of these states, he can still win without OH (and the same goes for Obama). Ohio's just easier because it's one state. (There's also NH, but I don't think it matters. The Final Five are NV, IA, CO, OH, and NH).

[Skill and Chance]

The real question is whether, or not, Barack Obama has a reasonable path to victory without taking Ohio. Florida seems to be slipping away. If he loses in Virginia, he has to sweep NV, CO, IA, NH and WI, which doesn't seem to be too realistic. Virginia, too, seems to be slipping away. CO and NH could easily replace VA for Romney, leaving IA or NV as his path to victory.

Polls taken at Romney's post-debate peak have VA and CO as effective ties and small Obama leads in NV and IA.  This is with Romney winning the national popular vote by at least 1%.  Democrats have also underpolled drastically in CO and NV for the last two cycles, one of which was a Republican wave in the rest of the country.  Finally, Romney being below his national polling average in VA does not in any way constitute slipping away.  Face it, Obama has a built in 1.0-1.5% advantage in the electoral college relative to the popular vote. 

[Skill and Chance]

This is the map that corresponds to a Romney PV margin of 1.5% according to the RCP average:

Note that there has only been one post-debate poll of IA, but it did have Obama ahead.  Virtually all of the other swing states are all post-debate.

This was the map corresponding to a 1.4% McCain win using uniform swing in 2008:

It appears the hill has only gotten higher this year.

[Skill and Chance]

We will know Obama is in big trouble if/when he starts throwing everything at Florida.  If he pulls out of some smaller states to spend in Florida, that means he is desperate and hoping for something like this:

272-266 Obama

[BigSkyBob]

The real question is whether, or not, Barack Obama has a reasonable path to victory without taking Ohio. Florida seems to be slipping away. If he loses in Virginia, he has to sweep NV, CO, IA, NH and WI, which doesn't seem to be too realistic. Virginia, too, seems to be slipping away. CO and NH could easily replace VA for Romney, leaving IA or NV as his path to victory.

Polls taken at Romney's post-debate peak have VA and CO as effective ties and small Obama leads in NV and IA.  This is with Romney winning the national popular vote by at least 1%.  Democrats have also underpolled drastically in CO and NV for the last two cycles, one of which was a Republican wave in the rest of the country.  Finally, Romney being below his national polling average in VA does not in any way constitute slipping away.  Face it, Obama has a built in 1.0-1.5% advantage in the electoral college relative to the popular vote. 

Let's debunk your errors one by one.

1) Romney did not have a "post-debate peak." After the debate, he pulled into a small, but stable lead.

2) We will only know in retrospect  where the individual state races lie at this moment. If turnout mirrors 2008, Obama will outperform the polls. If turnout mirrors 2010, Romney is well ahead in those states. Survey after survey shows more Republicans, and fewer Democrats than 2008. They, also, show much higher enthusiasm for Republicans in 2012, and less for the Democrats.

3) For some moronic reason at the end of 2010 campaign the GOP spent millions in failed bid to win in California rather than fund a ground game in CO. That mistake won't be repeated in 2012. Nor, did the GOP have much of a ground game in NV. Again, that mistake will not be repeated.

4) Virginia is slipping away from Obama.   I wouldn't be surprised if Obama triages Virginia in a desperate bid to hang onto Ohio.

[Skill and Chance]

The real question is whether, or not, Barack Obama has a reasonable path to victory without taking Ohio. Florida seems to be slipping away. If he loses in Virginia, he has to sweep NV, CO, IA, NH and WI, which doesn't seem to be too realistic. Virginia, too, seems to be slipping away. CO and NH could easily replace VA for Romney, leaving IA or NV as his path to victory.

Polls taken at Romney's post-debate peak have VA and CO as effective ties and small Obama leads in NV and IA.  This is with Romney winning the national popular vote by at least 1%.  Democrats have also underpolled drastically in CO and NV for the last two cycles, one of which was a Republican wave in the rest of the country.  Finally, Romney being below his national polling average in VA does not in any way constitute slipping away.  Face it, Obama has a built in 1.0-1.5% advantage in the electoral college relative to the popular vote. 

Let's debunk your errors one by one.

1) Romney did not have a "post-debate peak." After the debate, he pulled into a small, but stable lead.

2) We will only know in retrospect  where the individual state races lie at this moment. If turnout mirrors 2008, Obama will outperform the polls. If turnout mirrors 2010, Romney is well ahead in those states. Survey after survey shows more Republicans, and fewer Democrats than 2008. They, also, show much higher enthusiasm for Republicans in 2012, and less for the Democrats.

3) For some moronic reason at the end of 2010 campaign the GOP spent millions in failed bid to win in California rather than fund a ground game in CO. That mistake won't be repeated in 2012. Nor, did the GOP have much of a ground game in NV. Again, that mistake will not be repeated.

4) Virginia is slipping away from Obama.   I wouldn't be surprised if Obama triages Virginia in a desperate bid to hang onto Ohio.

1. Not according to the trackers.  See the Reuters and IBD/TIPP trackers which show a clear peak.  Gallup switched to LV in the middle of this, but if you compare RV samples to RV samples, Obama is recovering.  Ras has the same statistical tie it has had for months.

2.  Why do you believe national polls but not state polls?  Did Obama barely win in 2008?  Did he hang on to one state by a thread, squeezing out every Dem vote he possibly could?  Not in this world.  It was a borderline landslide.  He can afford to give up 2008 ground.  That should be expected.  This isn't 1984. 

3. The state GOP in NV is in shambles.  It was co-opted by radical Paulists and the D registration advantage is only increasing.  The structural factors that lead to D's outperforming polling are unrelated to ground game.  They are related to the lack of Spanish-language polling.

4.  Obama outraised Romney last month.  He doesn't have to triage anything.  If he did get desperate, we would see him flooding the airwaves in Florida, which, as I have illustrated above, can save him from a Romney Midwestern sweep.

[Torie]

Mittens winning NH and Iowa, while losing Ohio seems doable. That is a nice alternative path to victory. But alas that adds up to but 267 votes. Mittens losing Ohio while winning NV or WI as well to get to the finish line seems not a very attractive alternative path to victory. In a word, it sucks. It's probably all about Ohio. Deal with it.

[technical support]

Romney is very out of touch with middle class voters