October-November polling

[pbrower2a]

Blank map.

I am starting a new map based on assumptions that beginning on October

(1) It's probably too late for any Presidential nominee to make up a lead over 7% this late,
(2) Leads above the 4% threshold (not 5%) are difficult, but not impossible to undo
(3) Leads under 2% are insignificant -- effective ties
(4) Leads in of at least 15% tell a story in their own right

I am starting with new polls (Friday or later) only. I will be closing my earlier map this evening. Reputable polls only -- none by or for advocacy groups, parties, unions, religious groups, or ethnic associations; none by suspect pollsters except as corroboration; relevant third-party nominees will be recognized as the choice; no interactive polls. I will soon be closing the thread that I have been using.

No averaging except on the same day.   

Des Moines Register, Selzer, Iowa -- Obama 49, Romney 45%.
Columbus Post-Dispatch, Ohio -- Obama 51%, Romney 42%
U-New Hampshire, Massachusetts -- Obama 57%, Romney 30%
Baltimore Sun, Maryland -- Obama 57%, Romney 34%
Rasmussen, Washington state -- Obama 52, Romney 41
Connecticut, PPP -- Obama 54, Romney 41
Maine, Critical Insights, Obama 52, Romney 36

So that I can show a pink shade I am adding two polls by ARG -- Virginia, Obama up 2 and New Hampshire, Obama up 5.

Obama/Biden blue; Romney/Ryan red

Margin 15% or more -- 80% saturation
Margin 8-14%    -- 60% saturation
Margin 4-7%  -- 40% saturation
Margin 2% or 3% -- 20% saturation
Margin 1% or none -- white


It is unlikely that there will be much polling of strong-R states, so as an example to show what red shades look like I will show Louisiana in pale blue, Mississippi in medium blue, Alabama in deep blue, Georgia in near-black, and Arkansas and Tennessee in white -- not that I believe that those states will so vote:

The third map is shown only once, and then only to show a color scheme.

[pbrower2a]

Based on assumptions that beginning on October

(1) It's probably too late for any Presidential nominee to make up a lead over 7% this late,
(2) Leads above the 4% threshold (not 5%) are difficult, but not impossible to undo
(3) Leads under 2% are insignificant -- effective ties
(4) Leads in of at least 15% tell a story in their own right

I am starting with new polls (Friday or later) only. I will be closing my earlier map this evening. Reputable polls only -- none by or for advocacy groups, parties, unions, religious groups, or ethnic associations; none by suspect pollsters except as corroboration; relevant third-party nominees will be recognized as the choice; no interactive polls. I will soon be closing the thread that I have been using.



So that I can show a pink shade I am adding two polls by ARG -- Virginia, Obama up 2 and New Hampshire, Obama up 5.

Obama/Biden blue; Romney/Ryan red

Margin 15% or more -- 80% saturation
Margin 8-14%    -- 60% saturation
Margin 4-7%  -- 40% saturation
Margin 2% or 3% -- 20% saturation
Margin 1% or none -- white

To accommodate the assumption that sure-thing states get recognition I am showing those in pale orange (sure Obama) or pale green (sure Romney):

Basically, the states and districts in gray offer good reasons for polling, such as hot Senate races.  

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Why are you using the Critical Insights poll for Maine?  While it is the most recently entered poll, the actual polling was done mid-September.  The most recent polling we have of Maine is from Rasmussen at 52-40.  Also coloring the two Maine CDs the same as the state is not a good idea.  The Maine People's Research Center poll done about the same time as the Critical Insights poll, but released earlier than the CI poll had a 16.2% Obama lead statewide, 24.8% in CD 1 and only 6.8% in CD 2.  It would be nice to get some more polling from Maine to confirm this, but based on what we do have, the two districts are quite polarized.  Indeed, CD 2 has a remote chance of going for Mitt if he can get his national campaign going well.

[pbrower2a]

Why are you using the Critical Insights poll for Maine?  While it is the most recently entered poll, the actual polling was done mid-September.  The most recent polling we have of Maine is from Rasmussen at 52-40.  Also coloring the two Maine CDs the same as the state is not a good idea.  The Maine People's Research Center poll done about the same time as the Critical Insights poll, but released earlier than the CI poll had a 16.2% Obama lead statewide, 24.8% in CD 1 and only 6.8% in CD 2.  It would be nice to get some more polling from Maine to confirm this, but based on what we do have, the two districts are quite polarized.  Indeed, CD 2 has a remote chance of going for Mitt if he can get his national campaign going well.

Why are you using the Critical Insights poll for Maine?  While it is the most recently entered poll, the actual polling was done mid-September.  The most recent polling we have of Maine is from Rasmussen at 52-40.  Also coloring the two Maine CDs the same as the state is not a good idea.  The Maine People's Research Center poll done about the same time as the Critical Insights poll, but released earlier than the CI poll had a 16.2% Obama lead statewide, 24.8% in CD 1 and only 6.8% in CD 2.  It would be nice to get some more polling from Maine to confirm this, but based on what we do have, the two districts are quite polarized.  Indeed, CD 2 has a remote chance of going for Mitt if he can get his national campaign going well.

OK - I am going with Rasmussen as slightly later.

The first change is in  -- any surprise? -- Ohio, where the President is up 49-44 (PPP)



Based on assumptions that beginning on October

(1) It's probably too late for any Presidential nominee to make up a lead over 7% this late,
(2) Leads above the 4% threshold (not 5%) are difficult, but not impossible to undo
(3) Leads under 2% are insignificant -- effective ties
(4) Leads in of at least 15% tell a story in their own right


Obama/Biden blue; Romney/Ryan red

Margin 15% or more -- 80% saturation
Margin 8-14%    -- 60% saturation
Margin 4-7%  -- 40% saturation
Margin 2% or 3% -- 20% saturation
Margin 1% or none -- white

To accommodate the assumption that sure-thing states get recognition I am showing those in pale orange (sure Obama) or pale green (sure Romney):

 

[pbrower2a]

North Carolina, PPP, 48-48 tie, much as things were in November 2008.   

Based on assumptions that beginning on October

(1) It's probably too late for any Presidential nominee to make up a lead over 7% this late,
(2) Leads above the 4% threshold (not 5%) are difficult, but not impossible to undo
(3) Leads under 2% are insignificant -- effective ties
(4) Leads in of at least 15% tell a story in their own right


Obama/Biden blue; Romney/Ryan red

Margin 15% or more -- 80% saturation
Margin 8-14%    -- 60% saturation
Margin 4-7%  -- 40% saturation
Margin 2% or 3% -- 20% saturation
Margin 1% or none -- white

To accommodate the assumption that sure-thing states get recognition I am showing those in pale orange (sure Obama) or pale green (sure Romney):

[pbrower2a]

http://weaskamerica.com/2012/10/01/heartland/

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September. I don't particularly like this pollster, but the Iowa poll is in line with the PPP poll in Iowa, and the Michigan poll makes sense accordingly.  

Based on assumptions that beginning on October

(1) It's probably too late for any Presidential nominee to make up a lead over 7% this late,
(2) Leads above the 4% threshold (not 5%) are difficult, but not impossible to undo
(3) Leads under 2% are insignificant -- effective ties
(4) Leads in of at least 15% tell a story in their own right


Obama/Biden red; Romney/Ryan blue

Margin 15% or more -- 80% saturation
Margin 8-14%    -- 60% saturation
Margin 4-7%  -- 40% saturation
Margin 2% or 3% -- 20% saturation
Margin 1% or none -- white

To accommodate the assumption that sure-thing states get recognition I am showing those in pale orange (sure Obama) or pale green (sure Romney):

[President von Cat]

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Shouldn't this be the other way around then, when adjusted for Atlas colors?

[sentinel]

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Shouldn't this be the other way around then, when adjusted for Atlas colors?

Typo.

[pbrower2a]

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Shouldn't this be the other way around then, when adjusted for Atlas colors?

Typo.

Corrected.

[pbrower2a]

http://www.wmur.com/news/politics/Poll-shows-Obama-with-15-point-lead-in-NH/-/9857748/16806904/-/evbu84z/-/index.html

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I can't imagine anyone winning New Hampshire by 15% except in an electoral blowout. The most that I can imagine President Obama winning NH by is about 12%... but he is above 50%. A huge number of undecided voters suggests that the state won't go 57-42. The undecided break ineffectively for the loser, and if President Obama is above 50%... well, Romney can keep his campaign ads out of the Boston market.  

ARG, North Carolina -- Obama down 4. Same day as the PPP poll , so the two are averaged.


Based on assumptions that beginning in October

(1) It's probably too late for any Presidential nominee to make up a lead over 7% this late,
(2) Leads above the 4% threshold (not 5%) are difficult, but not impossible to undo
(3) Leads under 2% are insignificant -- effective ties
(4) Leads in of at least 15% tell a story in their own right


Obama/Biden red; Romney/Ryan blue

Margin 15% or more -- 80% saturation
Margin 8-14%    -- 60% saturation
Margin 4-7%  -- 40% saturation
Margin 2% or 3% -- 20% saturation
Margin 1% or none -- white

To accommodate the assumption that sure-thing states get recognition I am showing those in pale orange (sure Obama) or pale green (sure Romney):

[pbrower2a]

http://weaskamerica.com/2012/10/01/western-front/

Colorado -- Obama 49. Romney 45.5

New Mexico - Obama 51. Romney 41

3.5% is within the margin of error. I did not predict any polls for New Mexico. New Mexico seems very safe D this year. I don't like decimal points in polls.


Based on assumptions that beginning in October

(1) It's probably too late for any Presidential nominee to make up a lead over 7% this late,
(2) Leads above the 4% threshold (not 5%) are difficult, but not impossible to undo
(3) Leads under 2% are insignificant -- effective ties
(4) Leads in of at least 15% tell a story in their own right


Obama/Biden red; Romney/Ryan blue

Margin 15% or more -- 80% saturation
Margin 8-14%    -- 60% saturation
Margin 4-7%  -- 40% saturation
Margin 2% or 3% -- 20% saturation
Margin 1% or none -- white

To accommodate the assumption that sure-thing states get recognition I am showing those in pale orange (sure Obama) or pale green (sure Romney):

[pbrower2a]

Nevada:

Obama 53%
Romney 42%

Missouri:

Romney 48%
Obama: 45%

http://weaskamerica.com/2012/10/02/horse-races/

Nevada is spiraling away from Romney, and Missouri is a legitimate swing state.

Rasmussen concurs with We Ask America on New Mexico with Obama up 11 there.


Based on assumptions that beginning in October

(1) It's probably too late for any Presidential nominee to make up a lead over 7% this late,
(2) Leads above the 4% threshold (not 5%) are difficult, but not impossible to undo
(3) Leads under 2% are insignificant -- effective ties
(4) Leads in of at least 15% tell a story in their own right


Obama/Biden red; Romney/Ryan blue

Margin 15% or more -- 80% saturation
Margin 8-14%    -- 60% saturation
Margin 4-7%  -- 40% saturation
Margin 2% or 3% -- 20% saturation
Margin 1% or none -- white

To accommodate the assumption that sure-thing states get recognition I am showing those in pale orange (sure Obama) or pale green (sure Romney):

[pbrower2a]

I find this one hard to believe (Louisiana, which does not get polled. No, it is not for Los Angeles or even Laos, which has been polled almost as often as Louisiana in the US Presidential election).  

45-39 Romney

Developed and conducted by Southern Opinion & Media Research, the poll included telephone interviews with 600 randomly selected Louisiana voters Sept. 11-20. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence.

http://www.laplaintalk.com/news-releases/FALL-2012-LOUISIANA-VOTER-SURVEY-RELEASE-AND-ANALYSIS.pdf

http://www.laplaintalk.com/news-releases/FALL-2012-LOUISIANA-VOTER-SURVEY-RESULTS.pdf

No, I don't think that Louisiana is in play this year. There won't likely be another poll of Louisiana, so until the election, that is what I have. If it is valid, which I have no means of checking, then maybe many of the Carter voters of 1976 and Clinton voters of the 1990s are coming back to the Democratic Party.

This is far more credible:

Texas Lyceum, Romney 58/Obama 39

58-39 Romney

http://trailblazersblog.dallasnews.com/2012/10/texas-poll-finds-romney-ahead-of-obama-perry-job-approval-ratings-down.html/

Based on assumptions that beginning in October

(1) It's probably too late for any Presidential nominee to make up a lead over 7% this late,
(2) Leads above the 4% threshold (not 5%) are difficult, but not impossible to undo
(3) Leads under 2% are insignificant -- effective ties
(4) Leads in of at least 15% tell a story in their own right


Obama/Biden red; Romney/Ryan blue

Margin 15% or more -- 80% saturation
Margin 8-14%    -- 60% saturation
Margin 4-7%  -- 40% saturation
Margin 2% or 3% -- 20% saturation
Margin 1% or none -- white

To accommodate the assumption that sure-thing states get recognition I am showing those in pale orange (sure Obama) or pale green (sure Romney):

[pbrower2a]

In the first poll of Rhode Island in a very long time, and don't be surprised if it is the last,  President Obama is up 24 (57-34). It is hard to see, so in case you are looking, here it is. 

Now for some bigger mysteries:

Florida: Obama 46%, Romney 43% (Suffolk)

Nevada: Obama 53%, Romney 42% (We Ask America)

New Hampshire: Obama 51%, Romney 44% (Public Policy Polling)

North Carolina: Obama 49%, Romney 47% (SurveyUSA)

Virginia: Obama 47%, Romney 39% (Roanoke College) 

I didn't think that Obama up 15 in New Hampshire was legit, either. Up 9 or up 15 there, President Obama has a probable lock on the state.

The good news for Mitt Romney today is that he is up 44-4 in states that haven't been polled for at least three months.  Unless someone polls California today that is going to stick.

..........................

Based on assumptions that beginning in October


(1) It's probably too late for any Presidential nominee to make up a lead over 7% this late,
(2) Leads above the 4% threshold (not 5%) are difficult, but not impossible to undo
(3) Leads under 2% are insignificant -- effective ties
(4) Any lead of at least 15% tell a story in its own right


Obama/Biden red; Romney/Ryan blue

Margin 15% or more -- 80% saturation
Margin 8-14%    -- 60% saturation
Margin 4-7%  -- 40% saturation
Margin 2% or 3% -- 20% saturation
Margin 1% or none -- white

To accommodate the assumption that sure-thing states get recognition I am showing those in pale orange (sure Obama) or pale green (sure Romney):

[pbrower2a]

Updated after Rutgers-Eagleton polled New Jersey, where Obama is up 56-39. New Jersey may be more interesting for House races than for the Presidency or the Senate seat. A small piece of pastel-orange goes deep red, as nobody would be surprised if such a state gets polled.   



..........................

Based on assumptions that beginning in October


(1) It's probably too late for any Presidential nominee to make up a lead over 7% this late,
(2) Leads above the 4% threshold (not 5%) are difficult, but not impossible to undo
(3) Leads under 2% are insignificant -- effective ties
(4) Any lead of at least 15% tell a story in its own right


Obama/Biden red; Romney/Ryan blue

Margin 15% or more -- 80% saturation
Margin 8-14%    -- 60% saturation
Margin 4-7%  -- 40% saturation
Margin 2% or 3% -- 20% saturation
Margin 1% or none -- white

To accommodate the assumption that sure-thing states get recognition I am showing those in pale orange (sure Obama) or pale green (sure Romney):

[pbrower2a]

Marist, three must-win states for Romney:

Ohio:

Obama 51% (+1)
Romney 43% (nc)

Florida:

Obama 47% (-2)
Romney 46% (+1)

Virginia:

Obama 48% (-1)
Romney 46% (+1)



..........................

Based on assumptions that beginning in October


(1) It's probably too late for any Presidential nominee to make up a lead over 7% this late,
(2) Leads above the 4% threshold (not 5%) are difficult, but not impossible to undo
(3) Leads under 2% are insignificant -- effective ties
(4) Any lead of at least 15% tell a story in its own right


Obama/Biden red; Romney/Ryan blue

Margin 15% or more -- 80% saturation
Margin 8-14%    -- 60% saturation
Margin 4-7%  -- 40% saturation
Margin 2% or 3% -- 20% saturation
Margin 1% or none -- white

To accommodate the assumption that sure-thing states get recognition I am showing those in pale orange (sure Obama) or pale green (sure Romney):

[pbrower2a]

If the VP choice could swing a state, then Wisconsin would not be a sure loss for the Party whose VP nominee is from that state.

Marquette Law School, Wisconsin  -- Obama up 53-42.

Rasmussen, North Carolina -- Romney up 4.

Arizona, Moore Consulting -- Romney up 4.

(PPP will be have polls out for AZ and MT late this week).  


..........................

Based on assumptions that beginning in October


(1) It's probably too late for any Presidential nominee to make up a lead over 7% this late,
(2) Leads above the 4% threshold (not 5%) are difficult, but not impossible to undo
(3) Leads under 2% are insignificant -- effective ties
(4) Any lead of at least 15% tell a story in its own right


Obama/Biden red; Romney/Ryan blue

Margin 15% or more -- 80% saturation
Margin 8-14%    -- 60% saturation
Margin 4-7%  -- 40% saturation
Margin 2% or 3% -- 20% saturation
Margin 1% or none -- white

To accommodate the assumption that sure-thing states get recognition I am showing those in pale orange (sure Obama) or pale green (sure Romney):

[pbrower2a]

PPP, Arizona -- Romney up 9.

PPP, Missouri -- Romney up 6.


..........................

Based on assumptions that beginning in October


(1) It's probably too late for any Presidential nominee to make up a lead over 7% this late,
(2) Leads above the 4% threshold (not 5%) are difficult, but not impossible to undo
(3) Leads under 2% are insignificant -- effective ties
(4) Any lead of at least 15% tell a story in its own right


Obama/Biden red; Romney/Ryan blue

Margin 15% or more -- 80% saturation
Margin 8-14%    -- 60% saturation
Margin 4-7%  -- 40% saturation
Margin 2% or 3% -- 20% saturation
Margin 1% or none -- white

To accommodate the assumption that sure-thing states get recognition I am showing those in pale orange (sure Obama) or pale green (sure Romney):

[pbrower2a]

Aloha!

New Poll: Hawaii President by Civil Beat on 2012-10-03

Summary: D: 62%, R: 30%, I: 3%, U: 6%

Q: Obama up 12 in Connecticut.


..........................

Based on assumptions that beginning in October


(1) It's probably too late for any Presidential nominee to make up a lead over 7% this late,
(2) Leads above the 4% threshold (not 5%) are difficult, but not impossible to undo
(3) Leads under 2% are insignificant -- effective ties
(4) Any lead of at least 15% tell a story in its own right


Obama/Biden red; Romney/Ryan blue

Margin 15% or more -- 80% saturation
Margin 8-14%    -- 60% saturation
Margin 4-7%  -- 40% saturation
Margin 2% or 3% -- 20% saturation
Margin 1% or none -- white

To accommodate the assumption that sure-thing states get little or sporadic recognition I am showing those in pale orange (sure Obama) or pale green (sure Romney):

[pbrower2a]

New Poll: Missouri President by Rasmussen on 2012-10-03

Summary: D: 46%, R: 49%, I: 2%, U: 3%

Probable high-water mark for President Obama in the Show-Me State. unless Romney collapses. One day it is a legitimate swing state, and the next day it isn't.  Which way is the wind blowing?

This looks like an exaggeration: Obama up 20 in Washington State, re SurveyUSA. Unless someone polls California, Illinois, or Oregon, this may be the last chance for anyone to see a large patch of the super-dark red.



..........................

Based on assumptions that beginning in October


(1) It's probably too late for any Presidential nominee to make up a lead over 7% this late,
(2) Leads above the 4% threshold (not 5%) are difficult, but not impossible to undo
(3) Leads under 2% are insignificant -- effective ties
(4) Any lead of at least 15% tell a story in its own right


Obama/Biden red; Romney/Ryan blue

Margin 15% or more -- 80% saturation
Margin 8-14%    -- 60% saturation
Margin 4-7%  -- 40% saturation
Margin 2% or 3% -- 20% saturation
Margin 1% or none -- white

To accommodate the assumption that sure-thing states get little or sporadic recognition I am showing those in pale orange (sure Obama) or pale green (sure Romney):

[pbrower2a]

First state-wide post-debate polls. 

Ohio: Romney 47%, Obama 46% (We Ask America)

Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 49% (Rasmussen)

Florida: Romney 49%, Obama 46% (We Ask America)

Virginia: Romney 49%, Obama 48% (Rasmussen)

Virginia: Romney 48%, Obama 45% (We Ask America)

I wish I had dual citizenship today.



..........................

Based on assumptions that beginning in October


(1) It's probably too late for any Presidential nominee to make up a lead over 7% this late,
(2) Leads above the 4% threshold (not 5%) are difficult, but not impossible to undo
(3) Leads under 2% are insignificant -- effective ties
(4) Any lead of at least 15% tell a story in its own right


Obama/Biden red; Romney/Ryan blue

Margin 15% or more -- 80% saturation
Margin 8-14%    -- 60% saturation
Margin 4-7%  -- 40% saturation
Margin 2% or 3% -- 20% saturation
Margin 1% or none -- white

To accommodate the assumption that sure-thing states get little or sporadic recognition I am showing those in pale orange (sure Obama) or pale green (sure Romney):

[sentinel]

I dislike that map.

[pbrower2a]

I dislike that map.

Dislike it? I hate it so much that today I wish I had dual citizenship in some country in the EU, or maybe Japan, Australia, Canada, South Korea, or Taiwan.

[5280]

I dislike that map.

Dislike it? I hate it so much that today I wish I had dual citizenship in some country in the EU, or maybe Japan, Australia, Canada, South Korea, or Taiwan.

Why do you guys hate it?  If I didn't like the map, I wouldn't be subjective about it and claim to move in a foreign country.

[pbrower2a]

I dislike that map.

Dislike it? I hate it so much that today I wish I had dual citizenship in some country in the EU, or maybe Japan, Australia, Canada, South Korea, or Taiwan.

Why do you guys hate it?  If I didn't like the map, I wouldn't be subjective about it and claim to move in a foreign country.

Mitt Romney is a political disaster.  His character (narcissistic bully) came to the fore in the debate. He lied, saying things opposite what he had said recently without stating that he had changed his opinion. This is someone whose convictions are purely what happens to be convenient at the time. He is the chosen leader for the rest of us by people who want to make us all poorer.

I hate the prospect of a pure, dehumanized plutocracy.