Columbus Dispatch Poll: Mitt Romney has a big Ohio problem

[Mehmentum]

Party id: D+9

See Rule #7.

I don't care about your rules. If you don't understand that Obama will do better in a sample with more democrats, I can nothing for you.

Polls do not wiegh for party ID.  Right now more people are saying they are Democrats than before the convention. 

[J. J.]

The last mail in poll that I heard about was the one showing Alf Landon would defeat FDR in 1936. 

Come on guys, get serious.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

The last mail in poll that I heard about was the one showing Alf Landon would defeat FDR in 1936. 

Come on guys, get serious.

The Columbus Dispatch poll has a good track record, hack.

[J. J.]

The last mail in poll that I heard about was the one showing Alf Landon would defeat FDR in 1936. 

Come on guys, get serious.

The Columbus Dispatch poll has a good track record, hack.

Not really.  Newspapers, in general, are not good at polling.  In the same time period it showed Bush up by 7 points.  http://mediamatters.org/research/2004/10/19/cnn-anchor-touted-outdated-ohio-poll-showing-bu/132114

This was a method used by the Literary Digest in 1936.  The reason I really have not heard of another mail poll for a political campaign is because everybody realized how absolutely crappy it is. 

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

The last mail in poll that I heard about was the one showing Alf Landon would defeat FDR in 1936. 

Come on guys, get serious.

The Columbus Dispatch poll has a good track record, hack.

Not really.  Newspapers, in general, are not good at polling.  In the same time period it showed Bush up by 7 points.  http://mediamatters.org/research/2004/10/19/cnn-anchor-touted-outdated-ohio-poll-showing-bu/132114

This was a method used by the Literary Digest in 1936.  The reason I really have not heard of another mail poll for a political campaign is because everybody realized how absolutely crappy it is. 

'Bush up by 7 points' I don't think was an at all unreasonable showing for Ohio at this point in 2004. At worst it was off by a few points. This is a paper that also did quite well for itself in 2008.

I'm familiar with the 1936 incident. There were many reasons why that was a bad poll, you know.

Anyway, you have a point insofar as why do we need this poll when every other Ohio poll also shows that Romney has a problem there?

[Adam Griffin]

Party id: D+9

See Rule #7.

I don't care about your rules. If you don't understand that Obama will do better in a sample with more democrats, I can nothing for you.

And if you don't understand that in many states, there are more self-identifying Democrats than actual Obama supporters, then I can do nothing for you. There are plenty of self-identifying Democrats in virtually any poll ever taken that support local and state Democrats but not national ones. It's the main reason that in most national polls, Democrats are "oversampled" as people like you would say; many Republican states actually have more self-identified Democrats. It doesn't matter what you think affiliation or measurement should be; it only matters in this context which party people identify themselves as actually being members of because that is the only way these results are calculated.

Look at these party affiliations by state:

Kentucky - 56% D, 37% R
West Virginia - 54% D, 29% R
Oklahoma - 49% D, 40% R
Arkansas - 41% D, 31% R

[J. J.]

The last mail in poll that I heard about was the one showing Alf Landon would defeat FDR in 1936. 

Come on guys, get serious.

The Columbus Dispatch poll has a good track record, hack.

Not really.  Newspapers, in general, are not good at polling.  In the same time period it showed Bush up by 7 points.  http://mediamatters.org/research/2004/10/19/cnn-anchor-touted-outdated-ohio-poll-showing-bu/132114

This was a method used by the Literary Digest in 1936.  The reason I really have not heard of another mail poll for a political campaign is because everybody realized how absolutely crappy it is. 

'Bush up by 7 points' I don't think was an at all unreasonable showing for Ohio at this point in 2004. At worst it was off by a few points. This is a paper that also did quite well for itself in 2008.

I'm familiar with the 1936 incident. There were many reasons why that was a bad poll, you know.

Anyway, you have a point insofar as why do we need this poll when every other Ohio poll also shows that Romney has a problem there?

Nine points on a poll with both a questionable methodology and a less than stellar track record is not something I'd be touting.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

The last mail in poll that I heard about was the one showing Alf Landon would defeat FDR in 1936. 

Come on guys, get serious.

The Columbus Dispatch poll has a good track record, hack.

Not really.  Newspapers, in general, are not good at polling.  In the same time period it showed Bush up by 7 points.  http://mediamatters.org/research/2004/10/19/cnn-anchor-touted-outdated-ohio-poll-showing-bu/132114

This was a method used by the Literary Digest in 1936.  The reason I really have not heard of another mail poll for a political campaign is because everybody realized how absolutely crappy it is. 

'Bush up by 7 points' I don't think was an at all unreasonable showing for Ohio at this point in 2004. At worst it was off by a few points. This is a paper that also did quite well for itself in 2008.

I'm familiar with the 1936 incident. There were many reasons why that was a bad poll, you know.

Anyway, you have a point insofar as why do we need this poll when every other Ohio poll also shows that Romney has a problem there?

Nine points on a poll with both a questionable methodology and a less than stellar track record is not something I'd be touting.

Hence my last sentence.

[Likely Voter]

WaPo Obama +8%, NY Obama +10%. So yes Obama +9% is a total outlier

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Romney has to find another strategy, because Ohio is done.  

If the Columbus Dispatch did a poll that showed Romney up 9 points in OH, would there be any Republican on this board saying Obama still had a shot there?  At what point can we start being reasonable?

[Marokai Backbeat]

Columbus Dispatch is a right-wing paper, fwiw.

[morgieb]

I'm skeptical of Columbus Dispatch's methodology, but yeah Ohio is gone. And I can't see Romney winning without Ohio.

[Miles]

The last mail in poll that I heard about was the one showing Alf Landon would defeat FDR in 1936. 

Come on guys, get serious.

The Columbus Dispatch poll has a good track record, hack.

Not really.  Newspapers, in general, are not good at polling.  In the same time period it showed Bush up by 7 points.  http://mediamatters.org/research/2004/10/19/cnn-anchor-touted-outdated-ohio-poll-showing-bu/132114

This was a method used by the Literary Digest in 1936.  The reason I really have not heard of another mail poll for a political campaign is because everybody realized how absolutely crappy it is. 

Well, they nailed both the Ohio Senate and Governor races in 2010 and they had Obama winning Ohio by 6 in 2008...

If you don't call that a good record, then I really don't know what pollsters you can trust.

[Reds4]

As someone who has live in Ohio for my entire life, it's always been a state that has been a swing state. What has changed this year to make it tilt toward the Dems? I really think Senate Bill 5 fired up a lot of Democrats and even independents. John Kasich hasn't been helpful to Mitt Romney because of how he has governed in Ohio.. Kasich has been a divider, and although he has turned the state's economy around.. he has ticked off a lot of people in the process. The labor-union vote will likely be stronger for Obama than it was last time.

I still think it's hard to believe Ohio is Obama by 9 or 10 like some of these polls are saying, but Obama by 4 or 5 right now seems reasonable.

[opebo]

Romney has to find another strategy, because Ohio is done.

Wishful thinking I'm afraid.  The racist video is tailor made for Ohio, and in fact originated there.  Ohio will likely swing back due to racist whites abandoning their momentary class consciousness and switching back to Romney purely based on racism.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Romney has to find another strategy, because Ohio is done.

Wishful thinking I'm afraid.  The racist video is tailor made for Ohio, and in fact originated there.  Ohio will likely swing back due to racist whites abandoning their momentary class consciousness and switching back to Romney purely based on racism.

Didn't you call the Ryan pick the "master-stroke" that sealed a Romney victory? 

This election couldn't be going much better considering the circumstances, why so much pessimism?  And why would the electorate flock to Romney over a non-factual rant about a free phone?