Are the polls skewed?

[Likely Voter]

Fox and Friends pushed the "polls are rigged" message hard this morning
http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/09/fox-friends-polls-rigged-conspiracy.php

For those who are buying into this, is the conspiracy that the polls have always been biased? So when Romney was tied after the RNC was he really 5 points ahead? Or is this a new thing that has been done since?

[King]

Fox and Friends pushed the "polls are rigged" message hard this morning
http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/09/fox-friends-polls-rigged-conspiracy.php

For those who are buying into this, is the conspiracy that the polls have always been biased? So when Romney was tied after the RNC was he really 5 points ahead? Or is this a new thing that has been done since?

Nothing helps a campaign down 7 nationally than telling its base that it's really up 10 and not worry even showing up.

[Northeast Rep Snowball]

but there is alwarys the factor of what most other people are doing, I think the two even out, so I don't think incorrect polls really hurt anyone

[Averroës Nix]

Fox and Friends pushed the "polls are rigged" message hard this morning
http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/09/fox-friends-polls-rigged-conspiracy.php

There are no Obama supporters in Ohio. Never! We have driven them back!

[King]

There's going to be a lot of confused and angry people in November because of this.

[tmthforu94]

I think Democrats are overpolled, but I don't think it's intentional efforts to make Obama look good.

[Yank2133]

There's going to be a lot of confused and angry people in November because of this.

Yup.

[SPC]

Probably, but only to a slight degree such that including Rassy in the RCP Average is enough to offset it.

[The Mikado]

At this point, the latter seems more likely by virtue of the president's likeability ratings (they are keeping him afloat, as was the case with Ford, but it is not enough in this environment once Romney gets serious).

When is Romney going to get serious?

Serious question.  It's worth reminding you that the election is just over a month away and early voting is about to open in quite a few states.  Hell, I just sent off for my absentee ballot.

[Likely Voter]

There's going to be a lot of confused and angry people in November because of this.

Yup.

Actually the conspiracy theory has an escape clause. The thinking goes that the liberal mainstream media are going to build up the "false" story that Obama is winning so much that it depresses Republican turnout to the effect of stealing the election. It's quite the tidy package of victim-hood to help set up another 4 years of an illegitimate presidency.

[All Along The Watchtower]

In the Bizzaro Land that is the GOP Fantasy, Romney is up by 20 points in Ohio, but Blah People and Homosexuals in the Media are keeping the Silent Majority of Romney voters in Obama's FEMA camps for indefinite duration.

[Sbane]

If you don't understand polls, then yeah.  Pollsters (except Rasmussen) don't do quotas.  Random samples are just that, random.  If 35-40% of random 1,000 people keep saying they self-identify as Democrats, guess what?  It's the same is if 35-40% of random 1,000 people kept saying they like turkey sandwiches, even if only 30% said they did two years ago.  Turkey sandwich eaters are not being over-polled.  Things change over time.

^^^ This. Though if you want to hang on to your delusional thoughts that's just fine by me. Just don't do anything stupid when a D+5 electorate shows up on election day.

[Maxwell]

I keep voting as an Indepedent, my bad.

But for real, they're not, considering the latest Gallup poll has Obama up by 6, and thats one that people are saying ISN'T biased.

Romney won't get elected by denying reality.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Polls have usually been right, or at least within the ballpark, or a while now, so until that changes, I won't be buying into the whole "the polls are just wrong this time!"

[ajb]

The bottom line is that once you start weighting for partisan ID, you can generate any topline result you want out of any sample you get. And polls that don't weight for partisan ID are consistently finding more people identifying as Democrats than as Republicans.

[mondale84]

Yes the polls are skewed. They are being generous to Romney.

[Sbane]

I think Democrats are overpolled, but I don't think it's intentional efforts to make Obama look good.

I have always considered you to be a very rational and smart guy, so why are you buying into this? Please understand that except for Rasmussen, nobody else weighs by party ID. So they couldn't be overpolling Democrats (unless you think they have a flawed methodology leading them to contact more Democrats). In addition, in most of the polls they ask whether you consider yourself to be a Democrat or Republican, not what their registration is. Party ID is fluid. People who were apprehensive about the economy and were undecided or voting for Romney might have been identifying as Independents back during summer. After the Mitt gaffes, or perhaps the DNC, they might be willing to give Obama the benefit of the doubt and now could be identifying as a Democrat. Similarly someone who might have been identifying as a Republican in the summer might be identifying as an Independent now due to some of the Mitt gaffes. Party ID is not an unchanging demographic characteristic like race, gender or age, it is very fluid. Even more fluid than party registration.

[stegosaurus]

No, the polls are right where I would imagine they'd be if the mediocre incumbent's challenger, despite holding all of the heavy artillery, suddenly went AWOL and bet his presidential aspirations on a debate that most Americans would rather be caned than watch.

Regardless of who you think would be a better President, it should be obvious to anyone with a free 10 seconds to look that Obama is an infinitely superior politician and Romney is simply being outclassed by a machine the likes of which he could never hope to organize.

Personally, I am hoping that Halo 4 is awesome enough to swing the election to Romney. High hopes, sure...but it's more reasonable than assuming large numbers of people are eager to listen to two pretentious clowns go back and forth about the unemployment rate.

[Politico]

I think Democrats are overpolled, but I don't think it's intentional efforts to make Obama look good.

I have always considered you to be a very rational and smart guy, so why are you buying into this? Please understand that except for Rasmussen, nobody else weighs by party ID. So they couldn't be overpolling Democrats (unless you think they have a flawed methodology leading them to contact more Democrats).

The "flawed methodology" is called not being able to get a hold of significant numbers of Romney voters (No, thank you *click* or letting it go to voice-mail; these are the types who are DISGUSTED with our hyper-partisan environment and economic malaise, and will vote for Romney simply because he is not Obama). In comparison, they are having relative ease getting a hold of Obama supporters who are clinging to 8% unemployment and trillion dollar deficits because these fools have bought into "forewarned" just like they bought into "hype and chicanery" four years ago.

Folks, when things are bad most people want "change." Likewise, when things are still bad after the previous "change" most people do NOT look "forward" to more of the same. Instead of clinging to malaise, they want to change course yet again. This is not rocket science.

[Politico]

At this point, the latter seems more likely by virtue of the president's likeability ratings (they are keeping him afloat, as was the case with Ford, but it is not enough in this environment once Romney gets serious).

When is Romney going to get serious?

When he proves in the debates that he is:

A) Not a monster
B) A viable alternative to Obama

He will not be able to accomplish either task until the debates start. In the meantime, there is no point wasting resources (as Team Obama is doing right now, helping some of their most ardent supporters tune out in the process). You only get so much in terms of marginal returns from ads, campaigning, etc. before the debates, especially when you're engaged in a mudslinging contest with an impressive Chicago machine. The Obama machine is too good to try and beat with orthodox strategies/tactics even in this economic malaise.

Hint about is what happening right now: Ever hear of a "Trojan Horse"? Do you know the story behind the term?

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

I think Democrats are overpolled, but I don't think it's intentional efforts to make Obama look good.

I have always considered you to be a very rational and smart guy, so why are you buying into this? Please understand that except for Rasmussen, nobody else weighs by party ID. So they couldn't be overpolling Democrats (unless you think they have a flawed methodology leading them to contact more Democrats).

The "flawed methodology" is called not being able to get a hold of significant numbers of Romney voters

Or, and I'm just guessing now, there aren't a significant number of Romney voters.

(No, thank you *click* or letting it go to voice-mail; these are the types who are DISGUSTED with our hyper-partisan environment and economic malaise, and will vote for Romney simply because he is not Obama). In comparison, they are having relative ease getting a hold of Obama supporters who are clinging to 8% unemployment and trillion dollar deficits.

Folks, when things are bad most people want "change." Likewise, when things are still bad after the previous "change" most people do NOT look "forward" to more of the same. Instead of clinging to failure, they want to change again. This is not rocket science.

These are probably the people that have been contributing to this hyper-partisan environment by supporting right wing crazies and engaging in below the belt name calling with Donald Trump and Joe Arpaio.

[Politico]

I think Democrats are overpolled, but I don't think it's intentional efforts to make Obama look good.

I have always considered you to be a very rational and smart guy, so why are you buying into this? Please understand that except for Rasmussen, nobody else weighs by party ID. So they couldn't be overpolling Democrats (unless you think they have a flawed methodology leading them to contact more Democrats).

The "flawed methodology" is called not being able to get a hold of significant numbers of Romney voters

Or, and I'm just guessing now, there aren't a significant number of Romney voters.

(No, thank you *click* or letting it go to voice-mail; these are the types who are DISGUSTED with our hyper-partisan environment and economic malaise, and will vote for Romney simply because he is not Obama). In comparison, they are having relative ease getting a hold of Obama supporters who are clinging to 8% unemployment and trillion dollar deficits.

Folks, when things are bad most people want "change." Likewise, when things are still bad after the previous "change" most people do NOT look "forward" to more of the same. Instead of clinging to failure, they want to change again. This is not rocket science.

These are probably the people that have been contributing to this hyper-partisan environment by supporting right wing crazies and engaging in below the belt name calling with Donald Trump and Joe Arpaio.

These are people who voted for both Obama and McCain four years ago. They're fed up and want to see us change course. They simply do not want the next four years to look like the past four years nor do they want politicians/volunteers/pollsters bugging them about the election in the meantime.

[Politico]

You guys are naive if you think Karl Rove, along with his disciples/front-men, is not in control of any degree of what is happening right now. Underestimate the ruthless brilliance of Karl Rove at your own risk. I learned that lesson in 2004.

[King]

I just don't get it, Politico.  How can some one be so apathetic that they refuse to answer the phone, yet care so much that they will "vote for anyone other than Obama?"

I don't disagree with your idea that people are already wanting change again.  But Obama does not have a major party opponent who is offering change.  Romney himself is not using change as rhetoric. 

[Likely Voter]

Even after putting someone on ignore you still see some of their crazed rantings when quoted by others.

I am starting to worry that Politico has a backwards B carving in his future