Similar elections

[jaichind]

I am struck by how 2000 2004 2008 and 2012 are all fairly similar.  This seems rare.  Only other cluster of elections that are this close I can think of are 1880 1884 and 1888 elections.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The number of states flipping from 2000 to 2004 was certainly low. 4 if you remember to include Florida, 3 if you forget. But there was even less change from 2008 to 2012, with 2 states plus 1 elector flipping. 2004 and 2008 weren't that similar, though.

[Nichlemn]

The number of states flipping from 2000 to 2004 was certainly low. 4 if you remember to include Florida, 3 if you forget. But there was even less change from 2008 to 2012, with 2 states plus 1 elector flipping. 2004 and 2008 weren't that similar, though.

They were pretty similar so far as elections sharing no major party candidate go, though. Probably the most recent closer pair is 1924/1928, and probably 1880/1884 with a party change.

[justfollowingtheelections]

I am struck by how 2000 2004 2008 and 2012 are all fairly similar.  This seems rare.  Only other cluster of elections that are this close I can think of are 1880 1884 and 1888 elections.

That's why I've said that 2000 was a realigning election (even though I understand why someone with a different definition of "realigning would disagree).  It seems that even if one of the two parties runs satan, they will still get more than 20 states.

[Nichlemn]

I am struck by how 2000 2004 2008 and 2012 are all fairly similar.  This seems rare.  Only other cluster of elections that are this close I can think of are 1880 1884 and 1888 elections.

That's why I've said that 2000 was a realigning election (even though I understand why someone with a different definition of "realigning would disagree).  It seems that even if one of the two parties runs satan, they will still get more than 20 states.

Except when Kerry won 19 states in 2004 despite losing by only a moderate margin.

[justfollowingtheelections]

I am struck by how 2000 2004 2008 and 2012 are all fairly similar.  This seems rare.  Only other cluster of elections that are this close I can think of are 1880 1884 and 1888 elections.

That's why I've said that 2000 was a realigning election (even though I understand why someone with a different definition of "realigning would disagree).  It seems that even if one of the two parties runs satan, they will still get more than 20 states.

Except when Kerry won 19 states in 2004 despite losing by only a moderate margin.

close enough

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

2000 and 1960. Popular incumbent, relative peacetime, good economy, the vice-presidents ran, the opponent was a member of a political family, and they were both stolen.

[SingingAnalyst]

2008 and 2012 were the most similar consecutive pair since the late 19th century. 2000 and 2004 were a close second, with 1952 and 1956 a distant third (since several farm states had strong swings toward Stevenson in '56).

[Sumner 1868]

Although swings were minimal, I don't think 2000 and 2004 are alike whatsoever in terms of issues and circumstance.

[SingingAnalyst]

Although swings were minimal, I don't think 2000 and 2004 are alike whatsoever in terms of issues and circumstance.

Very true. I was referring to state and county swings.