YouGov polls 27 states (user search)
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  YouGov polls 27 states (search mode)
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Author Topic: YouGov polls 27 states  (Read 12037 times)
Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
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Posts: 20,088
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« on: September 21, 2012, 08:17:21 PM »

Here's a base summary of the polls (LV, Leaning):

IL:   Obama + 23
NY:   Obama + 22
MD:   Obama + 20
CA:   Obama + 17
MA:   Obama + 16
WA:   Obama + 14
CT:   Obama + 13
NM:   Obama + 9
MN:   Obama + 8
NJ:   Obama + 8

====================
IN:   Romney + 5
GA:   Romney + 7
MO:   Romney + 7
TN:   Romney + 8
TX:   Romney + 8
AZ:   Romney + 10


Romney's really bombing in the South. TN is surprising. Funny that Obama is doing better in the South than in Arizona.
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,088
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #1 on: September 21, 2012, 09:29:48 PM »

Romney's really bombing in the South. TN is surprising. Funny that Obama is doing better in the South than in Arizona.

Tennessee is not surprising.  Back in the pre-primary polls of Tennessee, Obama was doing about this well against all of the Republican candidates when they included a general election question. not just Romney.  Given where Obama is doing in the national polls, R+8 in Tennessee was about what one should expect.

It's not surprising to see it shifting back, but seems quite large for a state of its dynamics and demographics. They voted against Obama for a reason, and I doubt that reason has changed. I suppose incumbency + Romney makes a bigger difference than I feel it should. There's also state trends that may be playing into the Democrats' hands; the Republicans have really botched legislative priorities and processes in TN this cycle, the first time they've really controlled the General Assembly.
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,088
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #2 on: September 22, 2012, 02:30:56 AM »

What's going on in Arizona? Did Mexicans start jumping to the GOP while I was away?
Wouldn't internet polls fail to pick up a lot of these people?

Perhaps, but landline polling isn't a good measurement, either. The Latino demographic is relatively young. I think it could be closer in AZ and we may be seeing flaws in polling similar to how Latinos in NV are underrepresented.
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