YouGov polls 27 states
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 02:48:03 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2012 Elections
  2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  YouGov polls 27 states
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 3 [4] 5
Author Topic: YouGov polls 27 states  (Read 11877 times)
True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
Moderators
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 42,157
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #75 on: September 21, 2012, 07:18:33 PM »


Scrap that. YouGov USA is from Palo Alto in California.

Which means "morning" is something like 8/9am in California, which is about 11/12 EST and about 17/18 here in Europe.


ML ?

I guess they mean ME (Maine) ...
No, it's a poll of the members of Senate (Marxist-Leninist), a Marxist-Leninist group that split off from the Senate in 1967.

Probably MaryLand if I had to guess.
Logged
True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
Moderators
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 42,157
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #76 on: September 21, 2012, 07:29:49 PM »

Holy crap Tennessee! Obama only down 8!

Tennessee had a heavy R swing in 2008, so some counter-swing was to be expected and indicated in the pre-primary polls.  I already had my prediction for Tennessee at Lean R which this helps confirm.  If Romney were to utterly collapse, Tennessee could be in play, not that it would matter.
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,842
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #77 on: September 21, 2012, 07:43:27 PM »



Why do you have different thresholds for the saturation levels of Obama leads than for Romney

Corrected. Thank you.
Logged
Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #78 on: September 21, 2012, 08:17:21 PM »

Here's a base summary of the polls (LV, Leaning):

IL:   Obama + 23
NY:   Obama + 22
MD:   Obama + 20
CA:   Obama + 17
MA:   Obama + 16
WA:   Obama + 14
CT:   Obama + 13
NM:   Obama + 9
MN:   Obama + 8
NJ:   Obama + 8

====================
IN:   Romney + 5
GA:   Romney + 7
MO:   Romney + 7
TN:   Romney + 8
TX:   Romney + 8
AZ:   Romney + 10


Romney's really bombing in the South. TN is surprising. Funny that Obama is doing better in the South than in Arizona.
Logged
True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
Moderators
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 42,157
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #79 on: September 21, 2012, 09:02:43 PM »

Romney's really bombing in the South. TN is surprising. Funny that Obama is doing better in the South than in Arizona.

Tennessee is not surprising.  Back in the pre-primary polls of Tennessee, Obama was doing about this well against all of the Republican candidates when they included a general election question. not just Romney.  Given where Obama is doing in the national polls, R+8 in Tennessee was about what one should expect.
Logged
Linus Van Pelt
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,144


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #80 on: September 21, 2012, 09:14:41 PM »

Coal Appalachia's complicated, but in non-coal Appalachia, a bit of a swing away from Romney wouldn't seem too surprising.
Logged
Skill and Chance
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,522
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #81 on: September 21, 2012, 09:16:56 PM »

Romney's really bombing in the South. TN is surprising. Funny that Obama is doing better in the South than in Arizona.

Tennessee is not surprising.  Back in the pre-primary polls of Tennessee, Obama was doing about this well against all of the Republican candidates when they included a general election question. not just Romney.  Given where Obama is doing in the national polls, R+8 in Tennessee was about what one should expect.

But there doesn't seem to be any swing against Romney in GA, and that is a much more logical Obama improvement state than TN.  TN looks generationally gone for Democrats at all levels.  I mean they just nominated a conspiracy theorist for senate!
Logged
Snowstalker Mk. II
Snowstalker
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,414
Palestinian Territory, Occupied


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -4.35

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #82 on: September 21, 2012, 09:18:01 PM »

What's going on in Arizona? Did Mexicans start jumping to the GOP while I was away?
Logged
Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #83 on: September 21, 2012, 09:29:48 PM »

Romney's really bombing in the South. TN is surprising. Funny that Obama is doing better in the South than in Arizona.

Tennessee is not surprising.  Back in the pre-primary polls of Tennessee, Obama was doing about this well against all of the Republican candidates when they included a general election question. not just Romney.  Given where Obama is doing in the national polls, R+8 in Tennessee was about what one should expect.

It's not surprising to see it shifting back, but seems quite large for a state of its dynamics and demographics. They voted against Obama for a reason, and I doubt that reason has changed. I suppose incumbency + Romney makes a bigger difference than I feel it should. There's also state trends that may be playing into the Democrats' hands; the Republicans have really botched legislative priorities and processes in TN this cycle, the first time they've really controlled the General Assembly.
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,952


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #84 on: September 21, 2012, 09:31:08 PM »

the Republicans have really botched legislative priorities and processes in TN this cycle

They do that in every state though.
Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,892
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #85 on: September 21, 2012, 10:31:19 PM »


Thanks.

The numbers are off, but there isn't a house bias, at least.
Logged
True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
Moderators
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 42,157
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #86 on: September 21, 2012, 11:35:52 PM »

Romney's really bombing in the South. TN is surprising. Funny that Obama is doing better in the South than in Arizona.

Tennessee is not surprising.  Back in the pre-primary polls of Tennessee, Obama was doing about this well against all of the Republican candidates when they included a general election question. not just Romney.  Given where Obama is doing in the national polls, R+8 in Tennessee was about what one should expect.

But there doesn't seem to be any swing against Romney in GA, and that is a much more logical Obama improvement state than TN.  TN looks generationally gone for Democrats at all levels.  I mean they just nominated a conspiracy theorist for senate!

Georgia had a D+1.67% trend in 2008, Tennessee had an astounding R+10.51% trend.  The Volunteer State essentially got a jump on their Tea Party and its not too surprising if it rebounds towards the Democrats.   It probably wouldn't be this strong save that Romney is a poor fit for the South, especially since he comes across as an insincere Yankee.
Logged
Sbane
sbane
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,303


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #87 on: September 21, 2012, 11:38:40 PM »

The thing about TN is that there are a lot of ancestrally Democrat people here, and they were voting Democrat at all levels till pretty recently. A candidate like Romney is likely driving a lot of them back into Obama's hands.
Logged
MaxQue
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,600
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #88 on: September 22, 2012, 01:23:36 AM »

What's going on in Arizona? Did Mexicans start jumping to the GOP while I was away?

They are leaving Arizona, I would say.
Logged
morgieb
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,624
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -8.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #89 on: September 22, 2012, 02:08:16 AM »

What's going on in Arizona? Did Mexicans start jumping to the GOP while I was away?
Wouldn't internet polls fail to pick up a lot of these people?
Logged
Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #90 on: September 22, 2012, 02:30:56 AM »

What's going on in Arizona? Did Mexicans start jumping to the GOP while I was away?
Wouldn't internet polls fail to pick up a lot of these people?

Perhaps, but landline polling isn't a good measurement, either. The Latino demographic is relatively young. I think it could be closer in AZ and we may be seeing flaws in polling similar to how Latinos in NV are underrepresented.
Logged
Eraserhead
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,405
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #91 on: September 22, 2012, 03:08:41 AM »

We need more TN polls. I think it might end up having the biggest swing towards Obama of any state this year.
Logged
morgieb
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,624
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -8.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #92 on: September 22, 2012, 03:44:14 AM »

We need more TN polls. I think it might end up having the biggest swing towards Obama of any state this year.
Sounds like it.

Does anyone know why?
Logged
Platypus
hughento
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,478
Australia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #93 on: September 22, 2012, 04:10:25 AM »

Because last time they had a swing to the white guy, and this time the only white guy is a mormon.
Logged
morgieb
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,624
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -8.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #94 on: September 22, 2012, 04:13:29 AM »

Because last time they had a swing to the white guy, and this time the only white guy is a mormon.

Other places like Tennessee haven't shifted that much though iirc.
Logged
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,207
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #95 on: September 22, 2012, 04:53:09 AM »

What's going on in Arizona? Did Mexicans start jumping to the GOP while I was away?

They are leaving Arizona, I would say.
They know they'll be arrested and brought to some holding center in the desert until polls close while their citizen papers are checked and double-checked and quadruple-checked, if they so much as venture out of the door on polling day.
Logged
Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,803
Spain


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -9.04

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #96 on: September 22, 2012, 05:08:52 AM »

About Tennessee: YouGov had Obama down 9 in 2008, now they have him down 8. Are you sure TN is trending democrat? Or are republicans underpolling here?
Logged
classical liberal
RightWingNut
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,758


Political Matrix
E: 9.35, S: -8.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #97 on: September 22, 2012, 11:47:02 AM »

Has anyone considered that perhaps, given that we have 50 polls quoting 95% confidence intervals, and that we consequently expect 2-3 outliers, the TN results might be one of them, or are we having too much fun making prejudiced statements about likely voters in the state?
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #98 on: September 22, 2012, 11:52:21 AM »

I've just been to their website and it looks they only polled these 27 states this time.

Not all 50 ... Sad

At least this is what I can read out of it:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
Logged
Andrew1
Rookie
**
Posts: 102
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #99 on: September 22, 2012, 12:29:39 PM »

I've just been to their website and it looks they only polled these 27 states this time.

Not all 50 ... Sad


I believe only AK, DE, ID and WY have not been polled for the presidential election. RI hasn't been polled since Feb 2011. Every other state has had at least one poll in the past year.
Logged
Pages: 1 2 3 [4] 5  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.058 seconds with 13 queries.