PA-GOP Internal: It's not over yet, Obama only ahead by 1

[Tender Branson]

PAGOP Poll: Obama 48, Romney 47

Written by Keegan Gibson, Managing Editor

The Pa. Republican Party will release an internal poll on Thursday that shows Mitt Romney within 1 point of Barack Obama.

The survey was conducted on Sept. 17. by Susquehanna Polling and Research, a firm commonly used by Pa. Republicans.

According to the average of public polling compiled by Real Clear Politics, Obama leads Romney in Pa. by 8.3 percent, 49 percent to 40.7. Republicans have spent the past week pushing back against signs, including a lack of TV ads, that the state is falling out of play. Last week, Gov. Tom Corbett and Sen. Pat Toomey each insisted that internal polls are more telling than public ones.

We’ll bring you more details on the poll including methodology when they are available tomorrow.

http://www.politicspa.com/pagop-poll-obama-48-romney-47/41347/

[Landslide Lyndon]

Sure he is.

[Likely Voter]

Adorable. The PA GOP feel left out.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Junk poll

[pa2011]

Pa GOP probably getting a bit worried about down ballot races... It's been a while since neither national party had boatloads of resources in the state during the final three months of the campaign.

[Lief 🗽]

Wouldn't that hurt both parties equally though?

[Lambsbread]

The Republican Party of Pennsylvania is not very happy with the way poll numbers are looking, and they're getting a bit antsy. The amount of time, energy and money being poured into efforts by the PAGOP is quite astounding, really.

[User157088589849]

Gives material for Karl Rove to talk about on foxnews.

[Craigo]

I really hope they release the full results. That will be fun.

[King]

You know Susquehanna Polling & Research is a fine and unbiased firm when their twitter reads like krazen's posting history.

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[pa2011]

Wouldn't that hurt both parties equally though?

Yes, it will. But I imagine Democrats and unions/left groups will still want to pour a good bit of money into parts of Pennsylvania like Philadelphia  for get out the vote at the end just to be safe. Frankly, unless Obama's internals have him up by more than 10, I wouldn't want to chance it if I were him. If for nothing else, uncertainty due to the voter ID law. If Obama ends up with money at the end for some reason, seems this year  it would make more sense to shore up what he already appears to have instead of trying to play in a state he doesn't need, like Indiana or Arizona or Missouri or Georgia or something. But who knows. 

[mondale84]

Hahaha

They can't even get Romney to lead in this "poll"... did they just poll Juniata county?

LOL

[Craigo]

I have to tread carefully here, but...

Partisanship =/= bias. Susquehanna is a Republican partisan firm, yes, but they don't have a bad reputation in PA. Don't confuse their partisanship or their commentary with their professionalism.

...That said, when conducting a private poll, the client gets what the client wants. Most bad results in public polls come from random error, or poorly designed weighting. In private polls, bad results usually come when the client is looking to be told what they want to hear.

(And occasionally you find shops that really are biased, or simply don't know what the hell they're doing, or are making numbers up out of thin air. But those are a small minority - out of the new players I've seen this year, only Gravis makes me suspicious.)

[J. J.]

Obama is still doing some advertizing, but there is no way it's in 1 point.  Susquehanna is a fishy firm. 

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

lolno

[Niemeyerite]

Sure.

[Craigo]

http://www.scribd.com/doc/106562878/Toplines-Statewide-PAGOP-Sept2012

Obama: 48%
Romney: 47%

Casey: 45%
Smith: 42%

800 LVs

Point and laugh, kids.

[opebo]

[pbrower2a]

I do not use partisan and especially insider polls except as corroboration.

[Craigo]

I do not use partisan and especially insider polls except as corroboration.

You shouldn't distrust partisan polls based on that factor alone.

And of course, nobody relies on internal polls. But they do provide entertainment value.

[bore]

They would say that, wouldn't they?

[Keystone Phil]

Cute, Tender. Very cute...