AP poll it`s tied

[Likely Voter]

This is like the ABC/WaPo poll in that it shows a bump for Obama on RV with a big lead but then has a very strict LV model showing only a 1% lead.

Essentially both models are saying, sure you Obama voters say you are going to vote, but we really don't believe you. Clearly if we had a 100% turnout election, Obama would win in a huge landslide. He would also win if we have another 2008 style turnout, but if it drops down to the 50% range (meaning more minorities and young voters dont show up), then he is probably going to lose.   

Before the DNC I thought that turnout might actually be around 51% but now it appears the Dems are fired up. It might fade but for now, I doubt this LV model is right.

[Likely Voter]

Junk poll. No way that a 15 point lead among adults goes down to 1 point among LV. I can see it going down to 8 points, but a 14-point gap makes no sense.

Well while AA is an interesting number, but you do need to be a RV to become an LV.

The real issue is with this...

There were 1282 registered voters who went for Obama 50/40, but only 807 were counted as likely voters.

That works out to about 62.9% turnout (among RVs), which would be the lowest turnout in modern history. It was 74.4% in 2008. It will likely be lower, but that much lower?