'it looks like a landslide, folks...'

[J. J.]

Stop solely posting the Gallup 1980 polls. We know those exist. Those are included and averaged with other polls from 1980 here and the average shows that Reagan was in the lead from the summer until election day:

Lief, I hate to tell you this, but back in the day, we didn't exactly have a lot of polls.  Gallup was the gold standard at the time.

[ajb]

Stop solely posting the Gallup 1980 polls. We know those exist. Those are included and averaged with other polls from 1980 here and the average shows that Reagan was in the lead from the summer until election day:

Lief, I hate to tell you this, but back in the day, we didn't exactly have a lot of polls.  Gallup was the gold standard at the time.

And the polls that we had showed that Reagan was ahead from May onwards, including a lead of twenty points after the convention. It's not that complicated.

[Maxwell]

For those who like to compare 2012 to 1980, don't forget that Reagan was in the lead in the polls from late May onwards, and was ahead by 20 points after the Republican convention. Carter narrowed the gap somewhat during the fall, but never closed it all the way, and Reagan's surge in the final week increased his already-existing lead, rather than moving him to the lead for the first time.

http://themonkeycage.org/blog/2012/08/09/what-really-happened-in-the-1980-presidential-campaign/

Instead of using a source called "The Monkey Cage," I suggest utilizing sources such as Princeton and Gallup:


http://election.princeton.edu/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/gallup80.jpg

Yes, at one point in 1980 Carter led Reagan by almost 30 points! The second last poll in late October, right before the debate, had Carter up 46-39. In contrast, Gallup has the race at 47-46 right now in Obama's favor although Romney is gaining traction due to the weakness on the foreign policy front and the growing disillusion with domestic Democratic rhetoric and their failure to produce the right results.

see, but what you don't get is that Reagan also LED by 16 points at one point. 1980 had much more volatile polling because the nation wasn't as polarized as it once was. Romney has never had the campaign ability to TOP Obama, let alone the few points where he MATCHED the president. Lordly lord, I hate being the one to take the bait.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The Romney fanboys are getting more and more desperate when it comes to grasping for straws. "Barack Obama is the new Jimmy Carter, yadda..yadda..yadda..."

At this point in the campaign, Jimmy Carter had a 37% approval rating (H.W. Bush had 39%).

I've got news for you, folks: Barack Obama is not the new Jimmy Carter. He isn't even Bill Clinton. He's simply Barack Obama.

[Silent Hunter]

No. Obama'll probably win, but we won't have any landslides.

[afleitch]

Stop solely posting the Gallup 1980 polls. We know those exist. Those are included and averaged with other polls from 1980 here and the average shows that Reagan was in the lead from the summer until election day:

What is interesting about the polls in 1980 is that they really weren't that far off the final outcome. Reagan on average led all summer. The spoiler was Anderson who was polling 9-10% in the final polls and who got 7% in the General. Indeed the 'eve of poll' polls were also underestimating Carter. DMI gave him 34% and CSR 36% though they got the actual vote right giving Regan an 11% and a 10% lead

The other respected pollster was Harris who had Reagan up 5 when Gallup only had him up 3.
The odd one out was actually Gallup. They had Reagan leading by 1% on 30th October when a clutch of 6 polls had an average lead of 4% (Harris had 5%, DMI had 10%) On 26th October Gallup had Carter 3 points ahead when Harris had Reagan ahead by 3 points.

The pollster that got it right was DMI. It had Reagan up 8% back in mid-October, had him fall back to 7% by late October but had him correctly ahead by 10-11 points in the final push.

Indeed Gallup was the most pro-Carter pollster in that final push. When the 'gold standard' gets it wrong then it's not the gold standard.

For the record, looking at the eve of election polls it appears that Reagan got 2-3 points from declared Anderson voters (who were either going to vote for Reagan all along or genuinely switched) and Carter won about 63% of undecided voters.

[Platypus]

I have 538 eggs & I reckon about 303 will hatch.

[pbrower2a]

The title is are the immortal words of Mypalfish.

Oh, and Reagan talked about trees creating air pollution.  

Trees don't vote.

Besides, until the satellites and the Internet made it easy to disseminate media, politicians used to get away with saying one thing before the Sierra Club and its diametric opposite, both 100% incompatible, to the American Petroleum Institute (as pols as least as late as Ronald Reagan could do with impunity). That is over.

After Sarah Palin's "Real America" fiasco after throwing political red meat at rustic voters in Chillicothe, Ohio but would offend urban voters in Cincinnati and Cleveland... but also Charlotte, Orlando, Richmond, and Indianapolis, some the techniques of campaigning that used to work now apparently fail badly.

[Zanas]

It seems the worse Romney does, the more higher right-wingers seem think his chances of winning are. Why would there be a 1980 landslide for Romney at this point? No polls are showing that happening.

Sustained days of malaise like we are seeing today have not been seen since Jimmy Carter's heyday in 1980. Look at the above poll if you want to know why we are supremely confident. The best debater in the world would not be able to defend Obama's record and this environment. The Romney campaign has been putting unprecedented resources into preparing for the debates. The debates are going to break Obama once and for all, first on the domestic front and then on the foreign front. There will not be another left-wing president in the White House for another generation after all is said and done.

What part do you guys not get: Romney refuses to lose. The guy is Rambo. Romney and many members of his team have dedicated over half of a decade towards winning this election, and they will not lose.

Whatever this guy's having, I want a crate of that !

[Simfan34]

A more likely landslide is this:

That's 2008, but worse. That's no landslide.

[opebo]

I have 538 eggs & I reckon about 303 will hatch.

You mean this way:

Or this way?:

Because just at this moment I think 317 looks like the most likely number of eggs to hatch:

[Simfan34]

These are landslides:









Not this:

[5280]

Obama is not winning a landslide, get that through your freakin skulls.

[mondale84]

Obama is not winning a landslide, get that through your freakin skulls.

I know you wish not, but it's over bro.

I fully expect Romney's problems to get worse over the next two months, just like McCain's...he'll be lucky to be polling within 10 points of Obama come November 1.

[5280]

I'm glad there are 2 term limits for presidents.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

A 'landslide' as in the example in the OP? Certainly possible.

A real landslide? Nope.

[Politico]

These are landslides:









Not this:

This and I would add 1980 to the list.

I am kind of sick of relatively minor deviations from 2000 being considered a "landslide."

[King]

Carter's people were saying the same thing this time thirty two years ago.

When Reagan ran an absolutely terrible campaign? No, not quite but revisionist history is always cute.

Reagan ran a decent campaign, but in September 1980 Carter's team still had more people terrified at the prospect of President Reagan than the number of people scared of President Romney right now. At one point, Reagan was even polling in the upper 30s in October. It took the debate to turn the tide.

If your boy had simply stepped aside in January, we wouldn't be having problems right now because Romney could have ran with the type of rhetoric that would have him leading 54-44 right now.

Nobody is terrified of Mitt Romney.  They laugh at how pathetic he is.  His awkward smile, his off-putting speaking style, and his love of playing the victim--such as saying he would be winning this election if it weren't for that meddling Santorum.

That's the real problem here.  In 1980, Carter was the one painting Reagan as being unelectable.  This time, Romney is the one tripping on his own shoelaces and falling headfirst into buckets of Benjamin Moore.

[pbrower2a]

1952.



1956.



1988.



I'd say that these are landslides.

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

Republicans, you had your chance:

Yes, he wasn't the best stump speaker, but he wouldn't be tripping up like Romney is now and the independents would have flocked to a GOPer viewed as sane, principled, and moderate.

[WalterMitty]

this is certainly possible:

disregard the shadings.  right now i think romney only breaks 60% in utah.

[Simfan34]

Republicans, you had your chance:

Yes, he wasn't the best stump speaker, but he wouldn't be tripping up like Romney is now and the independents would have flocked to a GOPer viewed as sane, principled, and moderate.

Sigged.

[m4567]

Mild landslides still happen, but true landslides don't exist anymore.

[5280]

Landslides will never happen cause the US is too polarizing.

[Dumbo]

landslide victory is 60 + % or 400 + electoral votes.
Last landslide victory was 1988 by George Bush.

If the most popular Democrat, Bill Clinton, would be
candidate today and Mitt Romney his opponent he could
win the Obama electoral vote from 2008 +
Arkansas, Missouri. This would be in total 374 EV.