SurveyUSA / Monmouth Nat'l poll: Obama 48% Romney 45%

[MorningInAmerica]

http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/84/159/2147483694/31a5695e-db0d-4272-b292-b9640f4ff7fb.pdf

LIKELY VOTERS
Obama 48% (+2)
Romney 45% (-)

Last poll was released in August, and Obama led by 1 pt, 46-45%.

REGISTERED VOTERS
Obama: 48%
Romney: 41%

Favorability ratings:
Obama: 46/43%
Romney: 41/40%
Ryan: 38/33%
Biden: 34/39%

Party ID of the likely voter sample is D+4. For the registered voter sample it is D+6.

[Likely Voter]

This is the first poll to ask about the Embassy crisis. So far it seems that it is a net positive for Obama, but not a big one.

[Sbane]

I know this is a random place to bring this up, but has any national poll shown Romney getting more than a 14-15 point advantage amongst whites? I know we focus a lot on party ID, but that is more fluid than race. Romney is going to need about a 20 point margin on the white vote to win, and I don't recall any national poll showing that, even when he was tied with Obama. Are minorities being under sampled?

[King]

This is the first poll to ask about the Embassy crisis. So far it seems that it is a net positive for Obama, but not a big one.

Probably because 34% said they hadn't heard Romney's response to the attacks.

To connect this with another thread about Obama blowing out Romney in Hispanics:  only 17% of Hispanics said they were worse off than they were 4 years ago.  That's really good and kind of unexpected. 

I know this is a random place to bring this up, but has any national poll shown Romney getting more than a 14-15 point advantage amongst whites? I know we focus a lot on party ID, but that is more fluid than race. Romney is going to need about a 20 point margin on the white vote to win, and I don't recall any national poll showing that, even when he was tied with Obama. Are minorities being under sampled?

Pretty much every poll I've remember checking that number on has Romney at 10+ among whites and considering Obama is up in females, that's probably 20+ white males.

[Likely Voter]

This is the first poll to ask about the Embassy crisis. So far it seems that it is a net positive for Obama, but not a big one.

Probably because 34% said they hadn't heard Romney's response to the attacks.

Well that's because by Thursday Romney realized he better STFU about the whole thing before he destroyed his campaign.


As for the white vote...Lindsay Graham's quote "We’re not generating enough angry white guys to stay in business for the long term" really defines this whole election.  If Romney loses the party will either take that to heart, or actually try to find away to generate more angry white guys. Perhaps they can build angry white guy training camps run by Ted Nugent and Larry the Cable Guy

[Umengus]

the number of republicans is weak (31%), compared to 2008 (32 %). And only 86 % for Romney is curious.

And D+4 is optimist for democrats (but not impossible)

And it's tied amongst I voters.

[Eraserhead]

Looks about right.

[J. J.]

Not exactly a great pollster.  I'd prefer PPP, Gallup, and Rasmussen.

And the major stories tonight were on the lack of security at the Libyan Consulate.