PPP Wisconsin Obama 49-Romney 48
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Author Topic: PPP Wisconsin Obama 49-Romney 48  (Read 4015 times)
MorningInAmerica
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« Reply #50 on: September 17, 2012, 04:24:14 PM »

I just think it's odd that when the party ID is obviously ridiculous, but in the Republicans' favor, the usual suspects don't seem to make a big deal of it.

And I find it odd for the opposite reason - the users who poo-poo party ID all of a sudden care on the 'once-in-a-blue-moon' occasion that Republicans get oversampled. And if I remember correctly Lief, you didn't seem to have any problems with that Ohio poll w/ the D+10 party ID.



Because that's a reasonable party ID for Ohio given current circumstances. Ohioans don't like Mitt the Pioneer of Outsourcing and more and more of them are sticking with the current president.

It's disingenuous that you should buy this troll job in Wisconsin when you had a problem with the ID in Ohio. Party ID in Wisconsin is heading toward D + 6-8 given current trends.

Reasonable according to who? Look Mondale, it was D+8 in a year that shattered records for Democrats throughout the country. In 2004, it was R+5. In 2006, another strong Democratic year, party ID for the Ohio Senate race was D+3. (the 2010 numbers have disappeared from CNN's website)

So based on those figures, surely you can see how R+4 in Wisconsin (where it was recently R+1 just a few months ago in their recall, and was R+3 back in 2004), is really no MORE or LESS ridiculous than a D+10 electorate in Ohio this November will be. You're certainly allowed to think Dem turnout will be higher this November than it was four years ago, but that is a purely subjective belief. One that I don't think is very well grounded in reality. And not agreeing with your Ohio turnout assessment certainly doesn't make one "disingenuous" anymore than expecting D+10 turnout makes you crazy.

Edited to note that I was about to spit out my drink when I thought Mondale was going to write an entire two paragraphs without saying "troll." Then reality took hold.

Listen, you can continue to live in denial and reject the idea that the Democratic base is energized and that Mitt Romney is the most feared Republican nominee since Goldwater, but you can't seriously expect me to believe that you subscribe to the idea that Republican turnout in Wisconsin will result in an electorate that is R + 4. If you had been sincere about your comments about party ID, you would have complained about this poll in that vain.

Instead, you continue to attack a poll of Ohio that is D + 10 while completely failing to mention a poll that you call "equally ridiculous" in terms of party ID. That is the definition of disingenuous, especially considering that Wisconsin is a more Democratic state than Ohio. Ergo, you are implying that Ohio would probably have a party ID for greater than R + 4 which is completely ridiculous.

But, you can continue to spin, as long as you can sleep with yourself at night... Roll Eyes

Haha, as long as I can sleep at night? That's comically dramatic. And your reading comprehension is nonexistent.
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I never said I expected WI turnout to be R+4. I just noted that that figure is just as ridiculous as D+10 in Ohio.

I have to wonder if you roll your eyes this often in real life. They may get stuck that way.

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J. J.
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« Reply #51 on: September 17, 2012, 04:42:04 PM »

True tossup. 

About the only state that I might move off the the list is NC, if Romney keeps on getting good numbers.

I'm hear some rumors of closing in FL.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #52 on: September 17, 2012, 04:43:27 PM »

True tossup. 

About the only state that I might move off the the list is NC, if Romney keeps on getting good numbers.

I'm hear some rumors of closing in FL.

Romney's numbers in NC are as good as Obama's numbers in Ohio, so I hope you'll be moving the Buckeye state off the list as well.

And who are you hearing these rumors from?
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J. J.
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« Reply #53 on: September 17, 2012, 04:47:57 PM »
« Edited: September 17, 2012, 04:53:00 PM by J. J. »

True tossup. 

About the only state that I might move off the the list is NC, if Romney keeps on getting good numbers.

I'm hear some rumors of closing in FL.

Romney's numbers in NC are as good as Obama's numbers in Ohio, so I hope you'll be moving the Buckeye state off the list as well.

And who are you hearing these rumors from?

Romney's numbers have been trending upward in NC, and it was closer than OH in 2008.  OH is static, and still a tossup.  It OH starts trending for Obama, that will be different.  Oh, and the 'bot put Romney down by 1 in OH and up by 6 in NC.

Pat Cadell, a Democrat, who was polling FL; results are being released at the end of the week.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #54 on: September 17, 2012, 05:40:01 PM »

Party IDs for Wisconsin:

2008: D+6
2010: D+1
2012 recall: R+1

This poll: R+4

Make of that what you will.

One wonders if PPP is trolling again... perhaps they want Romney to waste resources here...
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pepper11
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« Reply #55 on: September 17, 2012, 06:02:52 PM »

Party IDs for Wisconsin:

2008: D+6
2010: D+1
2012 recall: R+1

This poll: R+4

Make of that what you will.

One wonders if PPP is trolling again... perhaps they want Romney to waste resources here...

Don't you think maybe the campaigns might be investing at least a fraction of the billion dollars they have raised for polling purposes?  I don't think PPP is going to change Obama's or Romney's outlook on the state.

Very good numbers for Mitt however.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #56 on: September 17, 2012, 06:10:19 PM »

True tossup. 

About the only state that I might move off the the list is NC, if Romney keeps on getting good numbers.

I'm hear some rumors of closing in FL.

Romney's numbers in NC are as good as Obama's numbers in Ohio, so I hope you'll be moving the Buckeye state off the list as well.

And who are you hearing these rumors from?

Romney's numbers have been trending upward in NC, and it was closer than OH in 2008.  OH is static, and still a tossup.  It OH starts trending for Obama, that will be different.  Oh, and the 'bot put Romney down by 1 in OH and up by 6 in NC.

Pat Cadell, a Democrat, who was polling FL; results are being released at the end of the week.

If Romney is leading in a battleground state, it's safe for him. If Obama is leading, it's up in the air. Got it.

You're such a complete and total hack. If you just admitted it, I'm sure we'd all stop giving you such a hard time.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #57 on: September 17, 2012, 06:10:19 PM »


hahahahahahahahahahahahaha

good one
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #58 on: September 17, 2012, 06:19:01 PM »

And who are you hearing these rumors from?

The man who lights the matches behind his eyes. Who else?
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #59 on: September 17, 2012, 06:33:46 PM »


Stop making it so easy for us JJ.
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J. J.
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« Reply #60 on: September 17, 2012, 06:37:49 PM »

True tossup. 

About the only state that I might move off the the list is NC, if Romney keeps on getting good numbers.

I'm hear some rumors of closing in FL.

Romney's numbers in NC are as good as Obama's numbers in Ohio, so I hope you'll be moving the Buckeye state off the list as well.

And who are you hearing these rumors from?

Romney's numbers have been trending upward in NC, and it was closer than OH in 2008.  OH is static, and still a tossup.  It OH starts trending for Obama, that will be different.  Oh, and the 'bot put Romney down by 1 in OH and up by 6 in NC.

Pat Cadell, a Democrat, who was polling FL; results are being released at the end of the week.

If Romney is leading in a battleground state, it's safe for him. If Obama is leading, it's up in the air. Got it.

You're such a complete and total hack. If you just admitted it, I'm sure we'd all stop giving you such a hard time.

Roll Eyes  You obviously missed the bolded part. I wouldn't off for just one poll.


Ah, he did call 1980 right, and brought Carter to tears.  He also was the first guy I heard looking at the raw vote in FL in 2000 to say the networks had wrongly called FL for Gore. 
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Mister Twister
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« Reply #61 on: September 17, 2012, 07:03:43 PM »

Just so we're clear, how, uh, plausible is this R+4 thing? Were the various recalls like that? Was 2010, even?

Scott Walker has been spending the last couple years creating new Republicans in the Green Bay Metro and in Waukesha.

"Creating"? Like, in a factory?
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Mister Twister
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« Reply #62 on: September 17, 2012, 07:12:06 PM »

Also, I am shocked Baldwin is polling ahead of Obama. I like Baldwin, but the fact is that she is a far-left carpet-muncher from Madison.
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Vosem
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« Reply #63 on: September 17, 2012, 07:13:58 PM »

Between having both Romney & Baldwin do way better than they both are, I have literally no idea what to say about this poll. It's just bizarre.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #64 on: September 17, 2012, 07:15:47 PM »

Do you still consider Dick Morris a Democrat too, JJ?
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J. J.
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« Reply #65 on: September 17, 2012, 07:27:32 PM »

Do you still consider Dick Morris a Democrat too, JJ?

I consider Dick Morris a bad pollster. 
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Brittain33
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« Reply #66 on: September 18, 2012, 05:21:11 AM »

Pat Cadell, a Democrat, who was polling FL; results are being released at the end of the week.

J.J., that's like citing Andrew Sullivan, a Republican. Pat Cadell is a Fox News Democrat who's been happily bashing the party on tv for more than a decade.
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J. J.
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« Reply #67 on: September 18, 2012, 11:01:01 PM »

Pat Cadell, a Democrat, who was polling FL; results are being released at the end of the week.

J.J., that's like citing Andrew Sullivan, a Republican. Pat Cadell is a Fox News Democrat who's been happily bashing the party on tv for more than a decade.

He's worked for Democrats and he's a good pollster.
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J. J.
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« Reply #68 on: September 18, 2012, 11:12:00 PM »

Pat Cadell, a Democrat, who was polling FL; results are being released at the end of the week.

J.J., that's like citing Andrew Sullivan, a Republican. Pat Cadell is a Fox News Democrat who's been happily bashing the party on tv for more than a decade.

He has worked for Democrats and from what I've seen, in a good pollster.  I'm more interested in the latter.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #69 on: September 18, 2012, 11:21:48 PM »

Cadell just worked on a movie for Citizens United about the evils of President Obama. He may have been called a Democrat years ago but he certainly isn't one now. He certainly isn't a paid Democratic pollster anymore and hasnt been for a long time.

Fox News Dems like him are like the Washington Generals for the Harlem Globetrotters
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #70 on: September 18, 2012, 11:24:15 PM »

Pat Caddell doesn't even pretend to be a Democrat anymore, really. If you didn't know that he was a "Democrat" he'd sound like any other far-right Republican. He's still an interesting guy and I like watching that Campaign Insiders show he's on, but acting like he's a Democrat is ridiculous.
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J. J.
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« Reply #71 on: September 19, 2012, 12:53:55 AM »

Pat Caddell doesn't even pretend to be a Democrat anymore, really. If you didn't know that he was a "Democrat" he'd sound like any other far-right Republican. He's still an interesting guy and I like watching that Campaign Insiders show he's on, but acting like he's a Democrat is ridiculous.

As recently as 2010, he worked for Romanoff in Co.

He is a Democrat, though one that doesn't always tow the party line, which may be your problem with him.  He is, from what I've seen, a good pollster and analyst. 
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J. J.
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« Reply #72 on: September 19, 2012, 01:01:43 AM »

From what I could find out about the fiklm, The Hope and the Change it profiles Democrats and Independents that are no longer supporting Obama.  There seems to a lot of that going around.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #73 on: September 19, 2012, 02:52:38 AM »

From what I could find out about the fiklm, The Hope and the Change it profiles Democrats and Independents that are no longer supporting Obama.  There seems to a lot of that going around.

Actually, there doesn't seem to be a lot of that going around, which is why Obama is winning.
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Badger
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« Reply #74 on: September 19, 2012, 08:51:59 PM »

Pat Caddell doesn't even pretend to be a Democrat anymore, really. If you didn't know that he was a "Democrat" he'd sound like any other far-right Republican. He's still an interesting guy and I like watching that Campaign Insiders show he's on, but acting like he's a Democrat is ridiculous.

As recently as 2010, he worked for Romanoff in Co.

He is a Democrat, though one that doesn't always tow the party line, which may be your problem with him.  He is, from what I've seen, a good pollster and analyst. 

You'll be citing Zell Miller and Joe Leiberman any minute now I suspect.
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