VA: Rasmussen: Obama+1

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Virginia President by Rasmussen on 2012-09-13

Summary: D: 49%, R: 48%, I: 1%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[MorningInAmerica]

Romney has a massive lead w/ Independents, 55-36%, but he has a lot more trouble consolidating his base than Obama. He's only gettin 84% of GOP, to Obama's 12%. Obama is getting a whopping 96% of his base, 4% for Romney.

Romney's faves are 50/48%

72% of the sample is white, 19% black

Party ID is R+2

[sg0508]

I'm actually surprised that Obama is doing that badly amongst independents there. 

[Miles]

Romney has a massive lead w/ Independents, 55-36%, but he has a lot more trouble consolidating his base than Obama. He's only gettin 84% of GOP, to Obama's 12%. Obama is getting a whopping 96% of his base, 4% for Romney.

Which I find odd because I thought there were a good amount of conservative Democrats in VA, especially in areas like VA-09.

[Tender Branson]

I'm actually surprised that Obama is doing that badly amongst independents there. 

Rasmussen trolling around or small sample size.

The Marist poll has Obama only down by 2 among VA Indies:

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/VAPolls/VA120909/General%20Election%202012/2012%20Presidential%20Tossup_VA%20Likely%20Voters%20with%20Leaners.pdf

[Umengus]

I'm actually surprised that Obama is doing that badly amongst independents there. 

Rasmussen trolling around or small sample size.

The Marist poll has Obama only down by 2 among VA Indies:

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/VAPolls/VA120909/General%20Election%202012/2012%20Presidential%20Tossup_VA%20Likely%20Voters%20with%20Leaners.pdf

but Romney at 94 % amongst republicans...

[Tender Branson]

I'm actually surprised that Obama is doing that badly amongst independents there.  

Rasmussen trolling around or small sample size.

The Marist poll has Obama only down by 2 among VA Indies:

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/VAPolls/VA120909/General%20Election%202012/2012%20Presidential%20Tossup_VA%20Likely%20Voters%20with%20Leaners.pdf

but Romney at 94 % amongst republicans...

That's why I believe the Marist poll is the better one. Romney is certain to get 90%+, unlike that Rasmussen result. Besides, Obama didn't do so well with VA Indies in 2008 either. He only won them 49-48.

[Reds4]

What are the Virginia registration numbers like? Wondering if the R+2 is a reasonable guess or if that is off?

[Umengus]

I'm actually surprised that Obama is doing that badly amongst independents there.  

Rasmussen trolling around or small sample size.

The Marist poll has Obama only down by 2 among VA Indies:

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/VAPolls/VA120909/General%20Election%202012/2012%20Presidential%20Tossup_VA%20Likely%20Voters%20with%20Leaners.pdf

but Romney at 94 % amongst republicans...

That's why I believe the Marist poll is the better one. Romney is certain to get 90%+, unlike that Rasmussen result. Besides, Obama didn't do so well with VA Indies in 2008 either. He only won them 49-48.

the party id of the marist poll is an outrage: D+5 and I at 44 %...

R+2 is quite possible but maybe a little optimist for Romney.

[MorningInAmerica]

I'm actually surprised that Obama is doing that badly amongst independents there. 

Rasmussen trolling around or small sample size.

The Marist poll has Obama only down by 2 among VA Indies:

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/VAPolls/VA120909/General%20Election%202012/2012%20Presidential%20Tossup_VA%20Likely%20Voters%20with%20Leaners.pdf

Yeah, that Marist poll also had Obama leading overall by 17 pts at one point in Virginia, for what it's worth. Take from that what you want. http://gop12.thehill.com/2012/09/be-skeptical-about-latest-batch-of.html

[Lief 🗽]

It's like Rasmussen is polling a completely different country from everyone else.

[Umengus]

they poll now, others firms polled one week ago...

And the MN ppp poll, ARG polls and the gop firm florida poll gaven the same...

[krazen1211]

What are the Virginia registration numbers like? Wondering if the R+2 is a reasonable guess or if that is off?

No partisan registration in Virginia.

[Umengus]

In 2004, it was R+4

[Likely Voter]

It's like Rasmussen is polling a completely different country from everyone else.

In a way that is essentially what is happening. Rasmussen has a specific model of the 2012 electorate which is clearly different than all other pollsters, and one that assumes more GOP friendly voters turn out. While everyone obsesses over party ID, from what I've heard the main differences are assumptions with regards to the weight of white to non-white voters.  Essentially Ras is assuming a whiter electorate than everyone else. If that is what happens in November he is a genius, if not he was either trolling or misguided.  But the Ras polls should certainly be looked at as a kind of "what if" scenario.

[Umengus]

It's like Rasmussen is polling a completely different country from everyone else.

In a way that is essentially what is happening. Rasmussen has a specific model of the 2012 electorate which is clearly different than all other pollsters, and one that assumes more GOP friendly voters turn out. While everyone obsesses over party ID, from what I've heard the main differences are assumptions with regards to the weight of white to non-white voters.  Essentially Ras is assuming a whiter electorate than everyone else. If that is what happens in November he is a genius, if not he was either trolling or misguided.  But the Ras polls should certainly be looked at as a kind of "what if" scenario.

Ras is not so out of the touch with others pollsters... cfr the presidential approval index. But it's clear that Ras has not changed his party id after the dem convention, a contrario with some pollsters. So the dem bounce will be (maybe) next months...

[Sbane]

What kind of racial composition is Rasmussen expecting?

[J. J.]

It's like Rasmussen is polling a completely different country from everyone else.

Or they are quicker and catching shifts, either way, more quickly?

There seems to be a lag in some of Gallups trends verses Rasmussen on their respective tracking polls.