Rasmussen in NC: Romney 51%, Obama 45%

[MorningInAmerica]

Obama: 45% (+1)
Romney 51% (+2)

Party ID is D+4

Romney leads with Indy's 49-41%

ROmney led 49-44% in August.

[Miles]

Seems a tad generous to Romney, IMO. I think he's up there, but maybe by 2-3.

[Supersonic]

Believable poll, good result for Romney.

[MorningInAmerica]

Here's another example of Scotty basically weighting his poll, in terms of party ID, nearly right down the middle of 2008 turnout and 2004 turnout, which seems perfectly reasonable to me. NC was D+11 in '08, and 2004 was R+1.

[LiberalJunkie]

He's not up by this much with recent events.

[afleitch]

Here's another example of Scotty basically weighting his poll, in terms of party ID, nearly right down the middle of 2008 turnout and 2004 turnout, which seems perfectly reasonable to me. NC was D+11 in '08, and 2004 was R+1.

But it isn't reasonable is it? Just taking an arbitary cut down the middle. It's more dishonest than trying to reach an acceptable figure by looking at the number of registered voters in the state and applying turnout.

[Tender Branson]

NC will be a tied state until the end.

[Lief 🗽]

Nice try Scott.

[MorningInAmerica]

Nice try Scott.

What do you mean "nice try, Scotty"? The RCP average has  Romney up by 4.8% in NC. So I guess you mean "nice try every NC pollster."

PPP is the ONLY pollster (since June) to show Obama leading in North Carolina. But of course, everyone ELSE is just making up their numbers.

[Umengus]

NC will be a tied state until the end.

I disagree.

[Lief 🗽]

Nice try Scott.

What do you mean "nice try, Scotty"? The RCP average has  Romney up by 4.8% in NC. So I guess you mean "nice try every NC pollster."

PPP is the ONLY pollster (since June) to show Obama leading in North Carolina. But of course, everyone ELSE is just making up their numbers.

The RCP average is showing Romney with that large of a lead because of the junk SUSA poll with a ten point lead and Romney winning 30% of black voters.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Nice try Scott.

What do you mean "nice try, Scotty"? The RCP average has  Romney up by 4.8% in NC. So I guess you mean "nice try every NC pollster."

PPP is the ONLY pollster (since June) to show Obama leading in North Carolina. But of course, everyone ELSE is just making up their numbers.

The RCP average is showing Romney with that large of a lead because of the junk SUSA poll with a ten point lead and Romney winning 30% of black voters.

This.
Every other pollster has had it within 5% within the last few months.

[Likely Voter]

The big thing about polling in NC is all about the white/non-white weight. It has the highest % of African American voters than any of the swing states (twice as many as FL in 2008). Moving the AA/White mix just a few % completely changes this from a close state to Romney blowout.

Of course NC is one of those states that should have dropped off the battleground list by now, and will likely go with Romney in November. But there is no Romney winning scenario without NC. Obama has reduced his spending there but is still tying down Romney resources which could be diverted to other states like FL.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

No.

[Comrade Funk]

The party IDs are only okay when it benefits the Republicans.

[mondale84]

Where are our party ID trolls when we need them? Party id in NC is at least D + 14 so this is a joke poll from a trollish hack pollster. Adjusting for Rasmussen's massive Republican lean (R + 7)  this poll is good news for the President. 

[Devils30]

I think Romney is favored in NC but FiveThirtyEight's forecast of Romney +2 is probably the better one. Originally it seemed Obama had a similar shot in NC and FL but it's clear Florida is now Obama's best shot of the two and one where he's overperforming.

[Umengus]

Where are our party ID trolls when we need them? Party id in NC is at least D + 14 so this is a joke poll from a trollish hack pollster. Adjusting for Rasmussen's massive Republican lean (R + 7)  this poll is good news for the President. 

D+14 ? better than in 2008 ?

But on wich planet are you living ?

D+4 is possible.

[MorningInAmerica]

Where are our party ID trolls when we need them? Party id in NC is at least D + 14 so this is a joke poll from a trollish hack pollster. Adjusting for Rasmussen's massive Republican lean (R + 7)  this poll is good news for the President.  

D+14 ? better than in 2008 ?

But on wich planet are you living ?

D+4 is possible.

D+14?!?! It was D+11 in a RECORD-BREAKING Democratic year, and R+5 in a good Republican year (2004). Hell I believe it was R+1 or 2 in 2010 (the CNN 2010 exit polls arent available at CNN right now, so i can't verify). Anyone who thinks D+4 is insane is refusing to look at facts and past voting history, and is probably insane themselves.

Also, D+11 to D+4 is NOT an 18 point swing. Someone has trouble with  math.

[mondale84]

Where are our party ID trolls when we need them? Party id in NC is at least D + 14 so this is a joke poll from a trollish hack pollster. Adjusting for Rasmussen's massive Republican lean (R + 7)  this poll is good news for the President.  

D+14 ? better than in 2008 ?

But on wich planet are you living ?

D+4 is possible.

D+14?!?! It was D+11 in a RECORD-BREAKING Democratic year, and R+5 in a good Republican year (2004). Hell I believe it was R+1 or 2 in 2010 (the CNN 2010 exit polls arent available at CNN right now, so i can't verify). Anyone who thinks D+4 is insane is refusing to look at facts and past voting history, and is probably insane themselves.

Also, D+11 to D+4 is NOT an 18 point swing. Someone has trouble with  math.

D+14 is what party registration is and that is as good a metric as any in weighing your polls based on party ID. Since Scotty is arbitrarily choosing D+4 then I will choose something more reasonable: the actual ID numbers. Yet, you trolls continue to defend Scotty's trolling, which is of course understandable...

[MorningInAmerica]

Where are our party ID trolls when we need them? Party id in NC is at least D + 14 so this is a joke poll from a trollish hack pollster. Adjusting for Rasmussen's massive Republican lean (R + 7)  this poll is good news for the President.  

D+14 ? better than in 2008 ?

But on wich planet are you living ?

D+4 is possible.

D+14?!?! It was D+11 in a RECORD-BREAKING Democratic year, and R+5 in a good Republican year (2004). Hell I believe it was R+1 or 2 in 2010 (the CNN 2010 exit polls arent available at CNN right now, so i can't verify). Anyone who thinks D+4 is insane is refusing to look at facts and past voting history, and is probably insane themselves.

Also, D+11 to D+4 is NOT an 18 point swing. Someone has trouble with  math.

D+14 is what party registration is and that is as good a metric as any in weighing your polls based on party ID. Since Scotty is arbitrarily choosing D+4 then I will choose something more reasonable: the actual ID numbers. Yet, you trolls continue to defend Scotty's trolling, which is of course understandable...

Speaking of "trolls," Mondale: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=157757.0 AND this: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=159141.0 Seems you're most people's consensus troll, which is why I don't understand how you could have the audacity to utter that word to ANYONE.

[mondale84]

Where are our party ID trolls when we need them? Party id in NC is at least D + 14 so this is a joke poll from a trollish hack pollster. Adjusting for Rasmussen's massive Republican lean (R + 7)  this poll is good news for the President.  

D+14 ? better than in 2008 ?

But on wich planet are you living ?

D+4 is possible.

D+14?!?! It was D+11 in a RECORD-BREAKING Democratic year, and R+5 in a good Republican year (2004). Hell I believe it was R+1 or 2 in 2010 (the CNN 2010 exit polls arent available at CNN right now, so i can't verify). Anyone who thinks D+4 is insane is refusing to look at facts and past voting history, and is probably insane themselves.

Also, D+11 to D+4 is NOT an 18 point swing. Someone has trouble with  math.

D+14 is what party registration is and that is as good a metric as any in weighing your polls based on party ID. Since Scotty is arbitrarily choosing D+4 then I will choose something more reasonable: the actual ID numbers. Yet, you trolls continue to defend Scotty's trolling, which is of course understandable...

Speaking of "trolls," Mondale: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=157757.0 AND this: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=159141.0 Seems you're most people's consensus troll, which is why I don't understand how you could have the audacity to utter that word to ANYONE. I was't even certain what a troll was before coming to this forum. Reading your posts, I completely get it.

Maybe you can do a little self-reflection before you and the rest of the right-wing hacks go off on me and the rest of the posters on this forum who are just trying to gather some information and analysis. Your comments aren't appreciated.

[Donerail]

Where are our party ID trolls when we need them? Party id in NC is at least D + 14 so this is a joke poll from a trollish hack pollster. Adjusting for Rasmussen's massive Republican lean (R + 7)  this poll is good news for the President.  

D+14 ? better than in 2008 ?

But on wich planet are you living ?

D+4 is possible.

D+14?!?! It was D+11 in a RECORD-BREAKING Democratic year, and R+5 in a good Republican year (2004). Hell I believe it was R+1 or 2 in 2010 (the CNN 2010 exit polls arent available at CNN right now, so i can't verify). Anyone who thinks D+4 is insane is refusing to look at facts and past voting history, and is probably insane themselves.

Also, D+11 to D+4 is NOT an 18 point swing. Someone has trouble with  math.

D+14 is what party registration is and that is as good a metric as any in weighing your polls based on party ID. Since Scotty is arbitrarily choosing D+4 then I will choose something more reasonable: the actual ID numbers. Yet, you trolls continue to defend Scotty's trolling, which is of course understandable...

You do understand how party registration in the South works, right? And how it's necessary to have an average below the number of registered Democrats because those people don't actually vote Democrat, right?

[mondale84]

Where are our party ID trolls when we need them? Party id in NC is at least D + 14 so this is a joke poll from a trollish hack pollster. Adjusting for Rasmussen's massive Republican lean (R + 7)  this poll is good news for the President.  

D+14 ? better than in 2008 ?

But on wich planet are you living ?

D+4 is possible.

D+14?!?! It was D+11 in a RECORD-BREAKING Democratic year, and R+5 in a good Republican year (2004). Hell I believe it was R+1 or 2 in 2010 (the CNN 2010 exit polls arent available at CNN right now, so i can't verify). Anyone who thinks D+4 is insane is refusing to look at facts and past voting history, and is probably insane themselves.

Also, D+11 to D+4 is NOT an 18 point swing. Someone has trouble with  math.

D+14 is what party registration is and that is as good a metric as any in weighing your polls based on party ID. Since Scotty is arbitrarily choosing D+4 then I will choose something more reasonable: the actual ID numbers. Yet, you trolls continue to defend Scotty's trolling, which is of course understandable...

You do understand how party registration in the South works, right? And how it's necessary to have an average below the number of registered Democrats because those people don't actually vote Democrat, right?

Of course I do. But it's still more reasonable to use the registration numbers than the party id numbers Scotty pulled out of his ass.

[J. J.]

Where are our party ID trolls when we need them? Party id in NC is at least D + 14 so this is a joke poll from a trollish hack pollster. Adjusting for Rasmussen's massive Republican lean (R + 7)  this poll is good news for the President.  

D+14 ? better than in 2008 ?

But on wich planet are you living ?

D+4 is possible.

D+14?!?! It was D+11 in a RECORD-BREAKING Democratic year, and R+5 in a good Republican year (2004). Hell I believe it was R+1 or 2 in 2010 (the CNN 2010 exit polls arent available at CNN right now, so i can't verify). Anyone who thinks D+4 is insane is refusing to look at facts and past voting history, and is probably insane themselves.

Also, D+11 to D+4 is NOT an 18 point swing. Someone has trouble with  math.

D+14 is what party registration is and that is as good a metric as any in weighing your polls based on party ID. Since Scotty is arbitrarily choosing D+4 then I will choose something more reasonable: the actual ID numbers. Yet, you trolls continue to defend Scotty's trolling, which is of course understandable...

You do understand how party registration in the South works, right? And how it's necessary to have an average below the number of registered Democrats because those people don't actually vote Democrat, right?

Of course I do. But it's still more reasonable to use the registration numbers than the party id numbers Scotty pulled out of his ass.

J. J.'s First Rule of Elections: "If a candidate that say something like 'I don't look at the polls,' or 'The only polls that matter are the ones on Election Day,' that candidate will lose."

NC goes Romney, which shouldn't be unexpected.