Minnesota-PPP: Obama+7

[Tender Branson]

Q3 The candidates for President are Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If the election was today, who would you vote for?

Barack Obama................................................ 51%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 44%
Undecided....................................................... 5%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MN_091312.pdf

[Reds4]

Surprisingly close. Figured this would be double digits.

[mondale84]

Surprisingly close. Figured this would be double digits.

I feel PPP has had a Republican lean the past few months. After all the SUSA poll showed Obama +10 and we know they have a terrible R bias there. I think Obama is probably ahead 10-12 right now and will probably win by ~15 on election day since he really underperformed there in 08. Plus Romney is a terrible fit for the state.

[J. J.]

Surprisingly close. Figured this would be double digits.

I feel PPP has had a Republican lean the past few months. After all the SUSA poll showed Obama +10 and we know they have a terrible R bias there. I think Obama is probably ahead 10-12 right now and will probably win by ~15 on election day since he really underperformed there in 08. Plus Romney is a terrible fit for the state.

As pointed out, SUSA isn't a good pollster.  7 point for Obama on PPP is not good. 

[mondale84]

Surprisingly close. Figured this would be double digits.

I feel PPP has had a Republican lean the past few months. After all the SUSA poll showed Obama +10 and we know they have a terrible R bias there. I think Obama is probably ahead 10-12 right now and will probably win by ~15 on election day since he really underperformed there in 08. Plus Romney is a terrible fit for the state.

As pointed out, SUSA isn't a good pollster.  7 point for Obama on PPP is not good. 

That's not the point; the point is that SUSA is R-leaning in Minnesota and that PPP is R-leaning and this sample is R-leaning. Ergo, Obama is ahead by more than 7, probably 8-9 at the moment.

Remember, MN is a relatively inelastic state. However, trust me, once Romney completely collapses - Obama will win by 12-15.

[Vosem]

Surprisingly close. Figured this would be double digits.

I feel PPP has had a Republican lean the past few months. After all the SUSA poll showed Obama +10 and we know they have a terrible R bias there. I think Obama is probably ahead 10-12 right now and will probably win by ~15 on election day since he really underperformed there in 08. Plus Romney is a terrible fit for the state.

As pointed out, SUSA isn't a good pollster.  7 point for Obama on PPP is not good. 

That's not the point; the point is that SUSA is R-leaning in Minnesota and that PPP is R-leaning and this sample is R-leaning. Ergo, Obama is ahead by more than 7, probably 8-9 at the moment.

Remember, MN is a relatively inelastic state. However, trust me, once Romney completely collapses - Obama will win by 12-15.

PPP leans D. This seems to imply around a 4-5 point lead for Obama in MN, at least for me. That seems a bit too good for Romney; Obama 'should' still be in the last throes of the convention bump. Maybe Romney is receiving a Benghazi bump.

Romney will completely collapse? Trust me, there are way more people out there who hate than love Obama. Romney's floor is way higher than Obama's. Romney can't collapse, not even if he does everything wrong, because he's running against Obama. Obama probably won't collapse, because he's a competent politician, but if something goes terribly wrong (with the economy is the most likely scenario) Obama will tank. (This is assuming there's no foreign attack on America, which could put Romney below his usual 'floor'...if you have advanced knowledge of that please do share it with the Internet).

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Trust me, there are way more people out there who hate than love Obama. Romney's floor is way higher than Obama's.

The one doesn't imply the other. If we're comparing the candidates' floors, the fitting statement would be "There are way more people out there who love Obama than who love Romney." Which leads to the opposite of your conclusion.

[Vosem]

Trust me, there are way more people out there who hate than love Obama. Romney's floor is way higher than Obama's.

The one doesn't imply the other. If we're comparing the candidates' floors, the fitting statement would be "There are way more people out there who love Obama than who love Romney." Which leads to the opposite of your conclusion.

Hate is a more powerful motivator than love. Unfortunately.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Trust me, there are way more people out there who hate than love Obama. Romney's floor is way higher than Obama's.

The one doesn't imply the other. If we're comparing the candidates' floors, the fitting statement would be "There are way more people out there who love Obama than who love Romney." Which leads to the opposite of your conclusion.

Hate is a more powerful motivator than love. Unfortunately.

Hate -> ceilings
Love -> floors

"X% of people deeply loathe Obama." The result is that Obama's ceiling is 100-X.

[morgieb]

Not such good news IMO.

[LiberalJunkie]

This state will still trend Democrat in 2012.

[mondale84]

Trust me, there are way more people out there who hate than love Obama. Romney's floor is way higher than Obama's.

The one doesn't imply the other. If we're comparing the candidates' floors, the fitting statement would be "There are way more people out there who love Obama than who love Romney." Which leads to the opposite of your conclusion.

Hate is a more powerful motivator than love. Unfortunately.

Hate -> ceilings
Love -> floors

"X% of people deeply loathe Obama." The result is that Obama's ceiling is 100-X.

It's almost impossible to reason with a deranged 15 year-old.

[J. J.]

Surprisingly close. Figured this would be double digits.

I feel PPP has had a Republican lean the past few months. After all the SUSA poll showed Obama +10 and we know they have a terrible R bias there. I think Obama is probably ahead 10-12 right now and will probably win by ~15 on election day since he really underperformed there in 08. Plus Romney is a terrible fit for the state.

As pointed out, SUSA isn't a good pollster.  7 point for Obama on PPP is not good. 

That's not the point; the point is that SUSA is R-leaning in Minnesota and that PPP is R-leaning and this sample is R-leaning. Ergo, Obama is ahead by more than 7, probably 8-9 at the moment.

Remember, MN is a relatively inelastic state. However, trust me, once Romney completely collapses - Obama will win by 12-15.

You have got to be joking about PPP being R-leaning; it has a slight D-bias.  I would not rule out an outlier, but that raises some eyebrows.

SUSA is just a bad pollster, period.

[DrScholl]

This isn't really what you would call competitive, Romney is right at where the floor is for Republicans (as usual). 7% isn't close at all.

[mondale84]

Surprisingly close. Figured this would be double digits.

I feel PPP has had a Republican lean the past few months. After all the SUSA poll showed Obama +10 and we know they have a terrible R bias there. I think Obama is probably ahead 10-12 right now and will probably win by ~15 on election day since he really underperformed there in 08. Plus Romney is a terrible fit for the state.

As pointed out, SUSA isn't a good pollster.  7 point for Obama on PPP is not good. 

That's not the point; the point is that SUSA is R-leaning in Minnesota and that PPP is R-leaning and this sample is R-leaning. Ergo, Obama is ahead by more than 7, probably 8-9 at the moment.

Remember, MN is a relatively inelastic state. However, trust me, once Romney completely collapses - Obama will win by 12-15.

You have got to be joking about PPP being R-leaning; it has a slight D-bias.  I would not rule out an outlier, but that raises some eyebrows.

SUSA is just a bad pollster, period.

Umm....no.

PPP had a R-bias in 2010 and they still have it. Other pollsters just have a stronger Republican bias.

[J. J.]

Surprisingly close. Figured this would be double digits.

I feel PPP has had a Republican lean the past few months. After all the SUSA poll showed Obama +10 and we know they have a terrible R bias there. I think Obama is probably ahead 10-12 right now and will probably win by ~15 on election day since he really underperformed there in 08. Plus Romney is a terrible fit for the state.

As pointed out, SUSA isn't a good pollster.  7 point for Obama on PPP is not good. 

That's not the point; the point is that SUSA is R-leaning in Minnesota and that PPP is R-leaning and this sample is R-leaning. Ergo, Obama is ahead by more than 7, probably 8-9 at the moment.

Remember, MN is a relatively inelastic state. However, trust me, once Romney completely collapses - Obama will win by 12-15.

You have got to be joking about PPP being R-leaning; it has a slight D-bias.  I would not rule out an outlier, but that raises some eyebrows.

SUSA is just a bad pollster, period.

Umm....no.

PPP had a R-bias in 2010 and they still have it. Other pollsters just have a stronger Republican bias.

Actually, no.  PPP is a good poll, but it has a slight Democratic bias.  Not large.

Right now, MO and IN are both gone.  MO was close the last time; it isn't now.  There is a shift in the Midwest.  I just don't know if it's enough.

[MorningInAmerica]

Surprisingly close. Figured this would be double digits.

I feel PPP has had a Republican lean the past few months. After all the SUSA poll showed Obama +10 and we know they have a terrible R bias there. I think Obama is probably ahead 10-12 right now and will probably win by ~15 on election day since he really underperformed there in 08. Plus Romney is a terrible fit for the state.

As pointed out, SUSA isn't a good pollster.  7 point for Obama on PPP is not good.  

That's not the point; the point is that SUSA is R-leaning in Minnesota and that PPP is R-leaning and this sample is R-leaning. Ergo, Obama is ahead by more than 7, probably 8-9 at the moment.

Remember, MN is a relatively inelastic state. However, trust me, once Romney completely collapses - Obama will win by 12-15.

You have got to be joking about PPP being R-leaning; it has a slight D-bias.  I would not rule out an outlier, but that raises some eyebrows.

SUSA is just a bad pollster, period.

Umm....no.

PPP had a R-bias in 2010 and they still have it. Other pollsters just have a stronger Republican bias.

I really, really, really try not to converse in any way with Mondale84, but he's so ridiculous and off-base sometimes that you just can't help it. he's just being ridiculous on this. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/22/calculating-house-effects-of-polling-firms/

You have to be living in a world of serious, partisan-induced delusion to believe that PPP is a Republican leaning polling firm. And that goes for their results, their analysis, and their commentary. Mondale84, I find it funny that you can't seem to ever back up a single thing you say.

[mondale84]

Surprisingly close. Figured this would be double digits.

I feel PPP has had a Republican lean the past few months. After all the SUSA poll showed Obama +10 and we know they have a terrible R bias there. I think Obama is probably ahead 10-12 right now and will probably win by ~15 on election day since he really underperformed there in 08. Plus Romney is a terrible fit for the state.

As pointed out, SUSA isn't a good pollster.  7 point for Obama on PPP is not good.  

That's not the point; the point is that SUSA is R-leaning in Minnesota and that PPP is R-leaning and this sample is R-leaning. Ergo, Obama is ahead by more than 7, probably 8-9 at the moment.

Remember, MN is a relatively inelastic state. However, trust me, once Romney completely collapses - Obama will win by 12-15.

You have got to be joking about PPP being R-leaning; it has a slight D-bias.  I would not rule out an outlier, but that raises some eyebrows.

SUSA is just a bad pollster, period.

Umm....no.

PPP had a R-bias in 2010 and they still have it. Other pollsters just have a stronger Republican bias.

I really, really, really try not to converse in any way with Mondale84, but he's so ridiculous and off-base sometimes that you just can't help it. he's just being ridiculous on this. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/22/calculating-house-effects-of-polling-firms/

You have to be living in a world of serious, partisan-induced delusion to believe that PPP is a Republican leaning polling firm. And that goes for their results, their analysis, and their commentary. Mondale84, I find it funny that you can't seem to ever back up a single thing you say.

You do realize that having a house effect means that they are just in one direction from the average or polls, right? The average of polls maybe consistently leaning in one direction.

In 2010, the polling average of all firms was Republican friendly and so was PPP's. The same may be true this year. So stop trolling and start reading the facts.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Surprisingly close. Figured this would be double digits.

I feel PPP has had a Republican lean the past few months. After all the SUSA poll showed Obama +10 and we know they have a terrible R bias there. I think Obama is probably ahead 10-12 right now and will probably win by ~15 on election day since he really underperformed there in 08. Plus Romney is a terrible fit for the state.

As pointed out, SUSA isn't a good pollster.  7 point for Obama on PPP is not good.  

That's not the point; the point is that SUSA is R-leaning in Minnesota and that PPP is R-leaning and this sample is R-leaning. Ergo, Obama is ahead by more than 7, probably 8-9 at the moment.

Remember, MN is a relatively inelastic state. However, trust me, once Romney completely collapses - Obama will win by 12-15.

You have got to be joking about PPP being R-leaning; it has a slight D-bias.  I would not rule out an outlier, but that raises some eyebrows.

SUSA is just a bad pollster, period.

Umm....no.

PPP had a R-bias in 2010 and they still have it. Other pollsters just have a stronger Republican bias.

I really, really, really try not to converse in any way with Mondale84, but he's so ridiculous and off-base sometimes that you just can't help it. he's just being ridiculous on this. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/22/calculating-house-effects-of-polling-firms/

You have to be living in a world of serious, partisan-induced delusion to believe that PPP is a Republican leaning polling firm. And that goes for their results, their analysis, and their commentary. Mondale84, I find it funny that you can't seem to ever back up a single thing you say.

You do realize that having a house effect means that they are just in one direction from the average or polls, right? The average of polls maybe consistently leaning in one direction.

In 2010, the polling average of all firms was Republican friendly and so was PPP's. The same may be true this year. So stop trolling and start reading the facts.

Can we all, Democrat, Republican, Independent, Libertarian, Constitutional, Green, everyone, stop accusing each other of trolling for a little bit.

[MorningInAmerica]

You do realize that having a house effect means that they are just in one direction from the average or polls, right? The average of polls maybe consistently leaning in one direction.

In 2010, the polling average of all firms was Republican friendly and so was PPP's. The same may be true this year. So stop trolling and start reading the facts.

In your bizarre world, everything and eveyone is a right wing troll. Mondale land: the place where PPP, all polling averages, Rachel Maddow, Hugo Chavez, and hippie drum circles are all...say it with me..."right wing trolls." You're hopeless Mondale. Now, my no-conversing-with-Mondale84 policy is going strictly back into effect.

[Miles]

Entered.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Surprisingly close. Figured this would be double digits.

I feel PPP has had a Republican lean the past few months. After all the SUSA poll showed Obama +10 and we know they have a terrible R bias there. I think Obama is probably ahead 10-12 right now and will probably win by ~15 on election day since he really underperformed there in 08. Plus Romney is a terrible fit for the state.

As pointed out, SUSA isn't a good pollster.  7 point for Obama on PPP is not good. 

That's not the point; the point is that SUSA is R-leaning in Minnesota and that PPP is R-leaning and this sample is R-leaning. Ergo, Obama is ahead by more than 7, probably 8-9 at the moment.

Remember, MN is a relatively inelastic state. However, trust me, once Romney completely collapses - Obama will win by 12-15.

You have got to be joking about PPP being R-leaning; it has a slight D-bias.  I would not rule out an outlier, but that raises some eyebrows.

SUSA is just a bad pollster, period.

Umm....no.

PPP had a R-bias in 2010 and they still have it. Other pollsters just have a stronger Republican bias.

I really, really, really try not to converse in any way with Mondale84, but he's so ridiculous and off-base sometimes that you just can't help it. he's just being ridiculous on this. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/22/calculating-house-effects-of-polling-firms/

You have to be living in a world of serious, partisan-induced delusion to believe that PPP is a Republican leaning polling firm. And that goes for their results, their analysis, and their commentary. Mondale84, I find it funny that you can't seem to ever back up a single thing you say.

mondale84 is clearly being stupid, but it's worth noting that PPP have gotten more R-leaning since June 22nd. Probably more like 0-1% for the Democrats.

[J. J.]

Can we all, Democrat, Republican, Independent, Libertarian, Constitutional, Green, everyone, stop accusing each other of trolling for a little bit.

Well, in this case, it is factual matter.  PPP is a good poll, but it has  a slight Democratic "house bias."  That doesn't mean it is a bad poll only that its results tend to be slightly more positive to the Democrats than reality. 

Either this poll is an outlier, one of those 1 in 20 polls that is off, or Obama is winning the state by less than 7 points.

[mondale84]

Can we all, Democrat, Republican, Independent, Libertarian, Constitutional, Green, everyone, stop accusing each other of trolling for a little bit.

Well, in this case, it is factual matter.  PPP is a good poll, but it has  a slight Democratic "house bias."  That doesn't mean it is a bad poll only that its results tend to be slightly more positive to the Democrats than reality. 

Either this poll is an outlier, one of those 1 in 20 polls that is off, or Obama is winning the state by less than 7 points.

You mean more positive than the average of polls...which is Republican-leaning...like in 2010...

[Umengus]

the party id of this poll is not so bad: D +3

It was D+4 in 2008

Problem is the oversampling of independents voters (33% in the poll and 25 % in 2008) but corrected, the result is +- the same.