FL-Rasmussen: Obama+2

[Tender Branson]

Florida: Obama 48%, Romney 46%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/florida/election_2012_florida_president

[LiberalJunkie]

If Rasmussen shows an Obama lead he must be leading their.

[Lief 🗽]

It's about time to move Florida to Lean Obama.

[mondale84]

So Obama is ahead by 7 then. Good to hear.

[afleitch]

It's about time to move Florida to Lean Obama.

I did a quick calculation. If you project the 2008 results onto the 2012 electorate then Obama's 2008n lead increases. The Hispanic electorate is up from 12% of all registered voters in 2008 to about 16%. Given Obama's 2:1 advantage that's a potential shift of about 2 points in his favour without a vote being cast.

[Wiz in Wis]

It's about time to move Florida to Lean Obama.

I did a quick calculation. If you project the 2008 results onto the 2012 electorate then Obama's 2008n lead increases. The Hispanic electorate is up from 12% of all registered voters in 2008 to about 16%. Given Obama's 2:1 advantage that's a potential shift of about 2 points in his favour without a vote being cast.

And that's before Paul Ryan and the Medicare Vouchers of Doom^TM

[pepper11]

It's about time to move Florida to Lean Obama.

I think you need to be the outside margin of error to be a leaner. But yes, edge Obama.

[MorningInAmerica]

Party ID for the likely voter sample is R+3. 2008 turnout in Florida was D+3. In 2004, it was D+4. This one looks like it could be a bit GOP friendly, though all reports I've heard are that Rep registered voters are up, Dems are down in Florida. But still, trailing by 2 with this sample could really spell trouble for Romney in Florida.

Edited to correct that party ID for the FL Ras poll is R+3, not D+3 like I had originally posted.

[Eraserhead]

All of the fuss about Ohio and Virginia is kind of irrelevant if Obama wins Florida. I sort of hope Romney manages to carry this terrible state just so election night is not a total bore.