TX, Pres: Romney leads by 15

[krazen1211]

http://www.texastribune.org/texas-politics/2012-presidential-election/white-voters-giving-romney-huge-texas-lead/

Romney 55
Obama 40



Obama has collapsed even further among Texas whites.

[Lief 🗽]

Good old Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research, you always know their numbers are right.

[Minnesota Mike]

Wow. Romney leads 77-17 with White Voters. 

[Miles]

Overall, pretty believable, despite being from a Republican pollster.

Romney is only at 32% with hispanics, slightly behind McCain's 35%.

[Lief 🗽]

Wow. Romney leads 77-17 with White Voters. 

Yeah, no, that's not going to happen.

[memphis]

Nobody ever expected Obama to win here. Doesn't really matter if Romney is up by 120%. And with the shenanigans the pols down there pull, it wouldn't surprise me.

[NVGonzalez]

Texas will someday be a swing state. Just not today.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Wow. Romney leads 77-17 with White Voters. 

War hero McCain only managed 73-26. Mitt inksing Romney is in no way going to top that.

[pbrower2a]

It's probably an exaggeration; I would not be surprised if Texas went for Romney by a high-single-digit margin... it's not going to Obama, though. One of the big differences with Texas is that it didn't have the real estate bubble that burst with the ruin of so many vulnerable people. (Texas had something like that in the 1980s, and it effectively reformed the financial system). The other is Big Oil, which is a dream employer capable of convincing workers that Big Business is its economic ally.

Texas is a tough state to poll. Definitely not a swing state, it is not going to President Obama except in a complete collapse of the Romney campaign.

[mondale84]

Since the pollster is a Republican hack firm, shave off 5 points and you have the actual result of Romney +10 which qualifies the state as likely Romney. Obama is probably going to come closer than 4 years ago because of:

1) Obamamentum
2) Depressed white turnout because Southern whites hate Mitt Romney/mormons

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Wow. Romney leads 77-17 with White Voters. 

War hero McCain only managed 73-26. Mitt inksing Romney is in no way going to top that.

If we replace Romney's numbers among whites with McCain's (which would still be optimistic for Romney)...
Romney 53 - 45 Obama

In other words, either Romney is collapsing or this poll is Dem-biased in other ways.

[mondale84]

Wow. Romney leads 77-17 with White Voters. 

War hero McCain only managed 73-26. Mitt inksing Romney is in no way going to top that.

If we replace Romney's numbers among whites with McCain's (which would still be optimistic for Romney)...
Romney 53 - 45 Obama

In other words, either Romney is collapsing or this poll is Dem-biased in other ways.

This was already known...

[Tender Branson]

Joke state.

[krazen1211]

Wow. Romney leads 77-17 with White Voters. 

War hero McCain only managed 73-26. Mitt inksing Romney is in no way going to top that.

Sheer nonsense.

[mondale84]

Wow. Romney leads 77-17 with White Voters. 

War hero McCain only managed 73-26. Mitt inksing Romney is in no way going to top that.

Sheer nonsense.

No Krazy, Obama will probably end up with 30% of the white vote in Texas because many whites will refuse to vote for the "moderate" Mormon.

[The Mikado]

Texas will likely end up somewhere around, like, 56-43 or 55-44 this year.  That's my guess at least.

[Donerail]

Wow. Romney leads 77-17 with White Voters. 

War hero McCain only managed 73-26. Mitt inksing Romney is in no way going to top that.

Sheer nonsense.

No Krazy, Obama will probably end up with 30% of the white vote in Texas because many whites will refuse to vote for the "moderate" Mormon.

Yes; extremely conservative evangelical whites are going to be the major crossover group from the conservative Mormon white guy to the leftist (agnostic) black guy. Seems accurate.

[mondale84]

Wow. Romney leads 77-17 with White Voters. 

War hero McCain only managed 73-26. Mitt inksing Romney is in no way going to top that.

Sheer nonsense.

No Krazy, Obama will probably end up with 30% of the white vote in Texas because many whites will refuse to vote for the "moderate" Mormon.

Yes; extremely conservative evangelical whites are going to be the major crossover group from the conservative Mormon white guy to the leftist (agnostic) black guy. Seems accurate.

Or, they could not vote...or vote 3rd party. Mark my words, Romney won't win these voters.

[Iowa+3]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Yep. Just because people hate Romney or Obama doesn't mean they are going to vote for the other guy.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Wow. Romney leads 77-17 with White Voters. 

War hero McCain only managed 73-26. Mitt inksing Romney is in no way going to top that.

Sheer nonsense.

...Are you seriously going to try to argue that Mitt Romney is a good fit for Texas whites?
This, I have to see.

[Donerail]

Wow. Romney leads 77-17 with White Voters. 

War hero McCain only managed 73-26. Mitt inksing Romney is in no way going to top that.

Sheer nonsense.

No Krazy, Obama will probably end up with 30% of the white vote in Texas because many whites will refuse to vote for the "moderate" Mormon.

Yes; extremely conservative evangelical whites are going to be the major crossover group from the conservative Mormon white guy to the leftist (agnostic) black guy. Seems accurate.

Or, they could not vote...or vote 3rd party. Mark my words, Romney won't win these voters.

Even if they vote 3rd party Obama's share of the vote doesn't increase like you said it would, Romney's simply decreases.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Wow. Romney leads 77-17 with White Voters. 

I doubt that. Obama has little to lose with white Texans; rural and suburban whites were already at the Republican ceiling in 2004 and 2008, though I suppose Romney could make gains with urban whites in Texas. It's great to see Romney's performance with Hispanics drop from McCain's, though.

[Badger]

Texas will likely end up somewhere around, like, 56-43 or 55-44 this year.  That's my guess at least.

[krazen1211]

Wow. Romney leads 77-17 with White Voters. 

War hero McCain only managed 73-26. Mitt inksing Romney is in no way going to top that.

Sheer nonsense.

...Are you seriously going to try to argue that Mitt Romney is a good fit for Texas whites?
This, I have to see.

No need to. They loathe the Democratic party.

[Badger]

Wow. Romney leads 77-17 with White Voters. 

War hero McCain only managed 73-26. Mitt inksing Romney is in no way going to top that.

Sheer nonsense.

No Krazy, Obama will probably end up with 30% of the white vote in Texas because many whites will refuse to vote for the "moderate" Mormon.

Yes; extremely conservative evangelical whites are going to be the major crossover group from the conservative Mormon white guy to the leftist (agnostic) black guy. Seems accurate.

Or, they could not vote...or vote 3rd party. Mark my words, Romney won't win these voters.

No. This group is SO antagonistic o obama almost all wouldvote for a leper if given the choice. Third party isn't much more likely than for 'moderate' McCain. Besides, romney appeals to suburban anglos whom obama made some minor inroads among last year.

Still, the growing Latino vote will largely offset these advantages, thus results will be similar to last time, give or take a point.