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  MT: Public Policy Polling: Romney up five, three with Johnson
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Author Topic: MT: Public Policy Polling: Romney up five, three with Johnson  (Read 3269 times)
Dr. RI, Trustbuster
realisticidealist
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« on: September 12, 2012, 02:35:57 PM »

New Poll: Montana President by Public Policy Polling on 2012-09-11

Summary: D: 45%, R: 50%, I: 0%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

With Gary Johnson: Romney 46, Obama 43, Johnson 7
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: September 12, 2012, 02:39:14 PM »

Pretty good result for Obama, but it remains unwinnable.
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Umengus
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« Reply #2 on: September 12, 2012, 02:45:18 PM »

Party id: R+1
2008: R +0

So for ppp: 2012=2008
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SUSAN CRUSHBONE
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« Reply #3 on: September 12, 2012, 02:50:09 PM »

If Romney is forced to spend money in Montana, he's finished.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4 on: September 12, 2012, 02:53:05 PM »

Party id: R+1
2008: R +0

So for ppp: 2012=2008

They have a highly competetive Senate race this year, so why shouldn't Democrats come out in force once again like in 2008 ?
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MorningInAmerica
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« Reply #5 on: September 12, 2012, 03:01:40 PM »

This is the same net result from PPP's last Montana poll in April, when Romney  again led by 5, 48-43%.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #6 on: September 12, 2012, 03:06:34 PM »

Polling Gary Johnson in Montana but not New Mexico is quite funny.
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J. J.
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« Reply #7 on: September 12, 2012, 03:15:05 PM »

If Romney is forced to spend money in Montana, he's finished.

He has more than $22.50 in his treasury.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #8 on: September 12, 2012, 03:33:42 PM »

I think Montana may be rivaling Georgia as a possible sleeper state.
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Umengus
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« Reply #9 on: September 12, 2012, 03:49:15 PM »

Party id: R+1
2008: R +0

So for ppp: 2012=2008

They have a highly competetive Senate race this year, so why shouldn't Democrats come out in force once again like in 2008 ?

I think that tester is less effective than obama to move dem voters...
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King
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« Reply #10 on: September 12, 2012, 03:53:15 PM »

Umengus, have you even been paying attention to polls and the news? Your argument might have held some water two years ago, but evidence clearly suggests that the Democrats are now more enthused about this election than the Republicans are at the moment.  Combine this with Obama reigniting the early voting by mail strategy of 2008 to bring up the turnout and I would not be surprised in the least that 2012 = 2008.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #11 on: September 12, 2012, 04:00:16 PM »

If Romney is forced to spend money in Montana, he's finished.

He has more than $22.50 in his treasury.
It's not about having to spend resources there that could go elsewhere. I think the point he was making was that Romney has a whole lot of troubles if he's having to defend Montana.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #12 on: September 12, 2012, 04:02:23 PM »

Polling Gary Johnson in Montana but not New Mexico is quite funny.

The NM poll was paid for by a private client, and said client didn't want Gary Johnson included in the poll.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #13 on: September 12, 2012, 04:06:39 PM »

Fascinating.
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #14 on: September 12, 2012, 04:10:11 PM »

Polling Gary Johnson in Montana but not New Mexico is quite funny.

The NM poll was paid for by a private client, and said client didn't want Gary Johnson included in the poll.

Hey, that's exactly what I was going to post.

By the way, Umengus, how can you be such a troll? You only post about the partisan ID of the polls you don't like. And even if they are accurate, you ignore the facts and continue claiming that the poll is biased. Please, next time think about it before posting:

Highly competitive senate election -----> Higher dem turnout in a GOP state / Higher GOP turnout in dem states.
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King
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« Reply #15 on: September 12, 2012, 04:15:37 PM »

Umengus is a decent poster.  He just needs to disconnect from this whole party ID trip he's gone on the past year or so.  It's bad stats to begin with and now doesn't even really make much sense as a tactic as the party ID is shifting back towards favoring Democrats right now.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #16 on: September 12, 2012, 04:53:11 PM »

By the way, Umengus, how can you be such a troll? You only post about the partisan ID of the polls you don't like. And even if they are accurate, you ignore the facts and continue claiming that the poll is biased. Please, next time think about it before posting:

Highly competitive senate election -----> Higher dem turnout in a GOP state / Higher GOP turnout in dem states.

We're also failing to mention that Tester appeals to many independents that Obama simply cannot. Montanans like Democrats who represent them. Are we forgetting that Montana is currently led by a Democratic governor and has two Democratic senators?

Back to the poll: "This is great news!"
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #17 on: September 12, 2012, 04:59:45 PM »

If Obama somehow did win MT, I think it would be a huge publicity boost for Schweitzer for the 2016 primary.  Beyond that, its 3 EV have no practical effect on the race.
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mondale84
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« Reply #18 on: September 12, 2012, 05:00:57 PM »

This poll confirms Montana's status as a tossup state.
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Vosem
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« Reply #19 on: September 12, 2012, 05:15:58 PM »

This poll confirms Montana's status as a tossup state.

R+5 during Obama's convention bounce simply confirms a state that will vote Romney in the upper single digits if he's losing and by double-digits if he's winning.
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mondale84
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« Reply #20 on: September 12, 2012, 05:21:50 PM »

This poll confirms Montana's status as a tossup state.

R+5 during Obama's convention bounce simply confirms a state that will vote Romney in the upper single digits if he's losing and by double-digits if he's winning.

This isn't a convention bounce, its permanent. This poll was taken over the last two days and shows that the Romney campaign is tanking nationally. Obama is heading toward a double digit win nationally and that's why Montana remains a tossup.
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Vosem
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« Reply #21 on: September 12, 2012, 05:26:38 PM »

This poll confirms Montana's status as a tossup state.

R+5 during Obama's convention bounce simply confirms a state that will vote Romney in the upper single digits if he's losing and by double-digits if he's winning.

This isn't a convention bounce, its permanent. This poll was taken over the last two days and shows that the Romney campaign is tanking nationally. Obama is heading toward a double digit win nationally and that's why Montana remains a tossup.

Er, no, it's a convention bounce, a fairly weak one at that considering history, and one which considering some other recently released polling (O+11 in Washington, R+9 in Arizona) indicates is very likely already receding.

Short some sort of rally-round-the-flag cataclysm a la 9/11, Montana is safe for Romney.
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mondale84
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« Reply #22 on: September 12, 2012, 05:28:16 PM »

This poll confirms Montana's status as a tossup state.

R+5 during Obama's convention bounce simply confirms a state that will vote Romney in the upper single digits if he's losing and by double-digits if he's winning.

This isn't a convention bounce, its permanent. This poll was taken over the last two days and shows that the Romney campaign is tanking nationally. Obama is heading toward a double digit win nationally and that's why Montana remains a tossup.

Er, no, it's a convention bounce, a fairly weak one at that considering history, and one which considering some other recently released polling (O+11 in Washington, R+9 in Arizona) indicates is very likely already receding.

Short some sort of rally-round-the-flag cataclysm a la 9/11, Montana is safe for Romney.

Stop trolling. You know as well as I that the PPP polls recently have all been Republican-leaning recently because the company is trying to prove it's "neutral" which ironically convinces me that they've turned into Republican hacks.
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Vosem
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« Reply #23 on: September 12, 2012, 05:33:24 PM »

This poll confirms Montana's status as a tossup state.

R+5 during Obama's convention bounce simply confirms a state that will vote Romney in the upper single digits if he's losing and by double-digits if he's winning.

This isn't a convention bounce, its permanent. This poll was taken over the last two days and shows that the Romney campaign is tanking nationally. Obama is heading toward a double digit win nationally and that's why Montana remains a tossup.

Er, no, it's a convention bounce, a fairly weak one at that considering history, and one which considering some other recently released polling (O+11 in Washington, R+9 in Arizona) indicates is very likely already receding.

Short some sort of rally-round-the-flag cataclysm a la 9/11, Montana is safe for Romney.

Stop trolling. You know as well as I that the PPP polls recently have all been Republican-leaning recently because the company is trying to prove it's "neutral" which ironically convinces me that they've turned into Republican hacks.

PPP; the friends of Daily Kos; are Republican hacks? Go read a book. Then you can come back.
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Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
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« Reply #24 on: September 12, 2012, 06:19:13 PM »

This poll confirms Montana's status as a tossup state.

R+5 during Obama's convention bounce simply confirms a state that will vote Romney in the upper single digits if he's losing and by double-digits if he's winning.

This isn't a convention bounce, its permanent. This poll was taken over the last two days and shows that the Romney campaign is tanking nationally. Obama is heading toward a double digit win nationally and that's why Montana remains a tossup.

Er, no, it's a convention bounce, a fairly weak one at that considering history, and one which considering some other recently released polling (O+11 in Washington, R+9 in Arizona) indicates is very likely already receding.

Short some sort of rally-round-the-flag cataclysm a la 9/11, Montana is safe for Romney.

Stop trolling. You know as well as I that the PPP polls recently have all been Republican-leaning recently because the company is trying to prove it's "neutral" which ironically convinces me that they've turned into Republican hacks.

How can you be such a troll with an Economic and social score of about -3? You are supposed to be a moderate democrat, who could vote for a moderate republican if the dem candidate is too liberal, with that E/S score.
PPP had a very, very, very small republican bias in 2010. But they are a good pollster, and, if any, they may have a slim dem bias (which I think they don't).
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