Prediction: Democrats will win the House popular vote this year

[Mr.Phips]

If Obama is winning by more than say, two points, I am almost certain that Democrats will win the House popular vote.  The reason is increased straight ticket voting.  The Democrats' House popular vote percentage has matched up almost perfectly with their Presidential vote percentage since 1996.

This is not to say that Democrats will win back the House, but they should easily get back above 200. 

[You kip if you want to...]

Definitely. It'll be how well the GOP have gerrymandered which will decide the House in November.

[Mr.Phips]

Definitely. It'll be how well the GOP have gerrymandered which will decide the House in November.

And Democrats should continue to point this out.  

Democrats and the DNC should have put more focus into state legislative races in 2010.  Democrats lost some overwhelmingly Democratic state legislative districts to Republicans. 

[rbt48]

I expect that the Republican House total vote will be 1 to 2% higher than Romney's because of the advantage of incumbency.  More of the incumbents are Republican this year.

[Lief 🗽]

In the last three elections, the margin in the House popular vote has been very close to the margin in the Presidential popular vote (usually with the incumbent House party getting a small boost of 1-3% over what their presidential candidate got). For Democrats to retake the House, Obama would probably need to win by at least 5%.

[The Mikado]

If the Dems bounce back to 205 or 208 or whatever House seats (leaving the GOP with a comfortable working majority but not the insane numbers it currently has), would that be enough to make the GOP throw out Boehner?  (Given that the House caucus doesn't particularly like him anyway?

[Badger]

Definitely. It'll be how well the GOP have gerrymandered which will decide the House in November.

And Democrats should continue to point this out.  

While voters MIGHT support anti-gerrymandering initiatives at the polls iwhen given a yea/nay choice, in terms of making it an actual issue in a candidate race, gerrymandering is right below 'excessive tile grout mold' among voter concerns.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Definitely. It'll be how well the GOP have gerrymandered which will decide the House in November.

Even without that the GOP tends to outperform their popular vote result because the Dem vote is much more concentrated geographically (ex. urban) and in "communities of interest."   +25 PVI districts are quite a bit harder to come by on the Republican side.

[Mr.Phips]

Looks like somebody what right again.