SurveyUSA / Civitas Poll of NC: Romney 53% Obama 43% with REGISTERED VOTERS

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Even Umengus realizes this poll is an outlier. No reasons to defend SUSA this time, MiA.

Seriously Julio, did you even read? Just four posts up I stated:

For the record, I don't see Romney winning NC by 10 at this point either. But it's a poll, by a known firm with a good track record, which is why it was posted.

And on the first page of this thread, I'm the one that pointed out the screwy crosstabs:

I'm completely fine with people picking this poll apart (and if you look at the internals, there's plenty to pick apart). My only problem is with people alleging SurveyUSA is a bad firm. Their results, and Nate Silver say otherwise.

Seriously Julio, either you're just trying to pick a fight, or you genuinely didn't read. I'm not defending this poll. I'm defending this pollster, whom, like I said, has a good track record according to Nate Silver: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/rasmussen-polls-were-biased-and-inaccurate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/

SUSA is a pollster, MIA.

[EDIT: Apparently I can't read either today]

[MorningInAmerica]

Even Umengus realizes this poll is an outlier. No reasons to defend SUSA this time, MiA.

Seriously Julio, did you even read? Just four posts up I stated:

For the record, I don't see Romney winning NC by 10 at this point either. But it's a poll, by a known firm with a good track record, which is why it was posted.

And on the first page of this thread, I'm the one that pointed out the screwy crosstabs:

I'm completely fine with people picking this poll apart (and if you look at the internals, there's plenty to pick apart). My only problem is with people alleging SurveyUSA is a bad firm. Their results, and Nate Silver say otherwise.

Seriously Julio, either you're just trying to pick a fight, or you genuinely didn't read. I'm not defending this poll. I'm defending this pollster, whom, like I said, has a good track record according to Nate Silver: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/rasmussen-polls-were-biased-and-inaccurate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/

SUSA is a pollster, MIA.

Huh? I know that, and I'm defending the pollster, the polling firm, the COMPANY THAT TOOK THE POLL, which is SurveyUSA. I'm NOT defending the poll. Fact is SUSA isn't a poor pollster. Just looks like they got one wrong this time.

[Tender Branson]

This is probably the routine SurveyUSA joke post-convention poll, like when they showed McCain ahead by 20 in NC right after the 2008 RNC ...

Ignore it.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

This poll is actually trash.

[Craigo]

This poll is actually trash.

I'm gonna second that guy's point above - any one bad result does not mean that the pollster is trash. Every once in a while, good polling technique will produce an awful result.

(I know you didn't say the pollster was trash - this just seemed like a good segue.)

[Likely Voter]

While I doubt Romney is currently 10 points ahead, I expect he could still be ahead in NC. I have been surprised that NC has stuck around as a battleground this long and hasn't fallen back like IN, MO, MI, PA, NM, and MN. Obama has been reducing his spending in NC and I bet they wont be spending (or spending significantly) by the election.

However there are currently nine battleground states and Romney needs about six of them. Even if he is ahead in NC, that still leaves him needing to pick up FL, VA, IA, CO and WI (his mostly likely path to win). He needs something big to happen for him to flip ALL of those states.

[Earthling]

Obama should be spending in North Carolina. If Romney is still defending NC by November he is most likely not winning the election.

[Niemeyerite]

Even Umengus realizes this poll is an outlier. No reasons to defend SUSA this time, MiA.

Seriously Julio, if you had read what I said you would see that I also think this poll is an outlier. Just four posts up I said:

For the record, I don't see Romney winning NC by 10 at this point either. But it's a poll, by a known firm with a good track record, which is why it was posted.

And on the first page of this thread, I'm the one that pointed out the screwy crosstabs:

I'm completely fine with people picking this poll apart (and if you look at the internals, there's plenty to pick apart). My only problem is with people alleging SurveyUSA is a bad firm. Their results, and Nate Silver say otherwise.

Either you're just trying to pick a fight, or you genuinely didn't read. I'm not defending this poll. I'm defending this pollster, whom, like I said, has a good track record according to Nate Silver: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/rasmussen-polls-were-biased-and-inaccurate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/

Ok, that was probably the problem. Sorry, I thought you were defending the poll AND the pollster BTW, SUSA usually releases weird polls before October.

[MorningInAmerica]

Ok, that was probably the problem. Sorry, I thought you were defending the poll AND the pollster BTW, SUSA usually releases weird polls before October.

Thank you.

And yeah, the last poll to show a lead this large for Romney in North Carolina came from September of LAST year, by of none other than SurveyUSA/Civitas, when they had Romney up 50-39. So this one without question stands out amongst the other ones.

[Beet]

I don't usually comment on polls, but it may be pertinent that

In 2008, Obama won 35 percent of the white vote in NC, while winning NC
This poll shows him at 37 percent of the white vote
In 2008, blacks were 23 percent of the electorate and voted 95 percent Obama
This poll has blacks at 21 percent of the electorate and 66 percent Obama (30 percent Romney)

The result is entirely the result of nearly one of three NC blacks deciding to switch to Romney.

[mondale84]

If you adjust the numbers so that blacks vote as they will in November, Obama leads 49 to 47 which seems about right.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

If you adjust the numbers so that blacks vote as they will in November, Obama leads 49 to 47 which seems about right.

How do you know how NC blacks will vote in November? Tell us more, oh smart one.

[Sbane]

I don't usually comment on polls, but it may be pertinent that

In 2008, Obama won 35 percent of the white vote in NC, while winning NC
This poll shows him at 37 percent of the white vote
In 2008, blacks were 23 percent of the electorate and voted 95 percent Obama
This poll has blacks at 21 percent of the electorate and 66 percent Obama (30 percent Romney)

The result is entirely the result of nearly one of three NC blacks deciding to switch to Romney.

SUSA always has screwy cross tabs though. I think this is an outlier, and I'll just leave it at that. Also SUSA does tend to be pretty volatile but usually ends up getting excellent results in their last poll.