PPP NC/OH polls to be released tonight; Obama surging past 2008 margins

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

These polls are distinctly less dramatic than I feared.

[Eraserhead]

Very good results for Obama but not exactly anything anyone needs to have a heart attack over.

I was always more interested in the Minnesota and Montana polls personally.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Very good results for Obama but not exactly anything anyone needs to have a heart attack over.

I was always more interested in the Minnesota and Montana polls personally.

I'm guessing a huge lead for Obama in Minnesota (which was never in play), and something like a 6% lead for Romney in Montana, which will expand soon and also never be in play.

[Devils30]

NC being like that shouldnt shock anyone. If you read that article on "elastic" states you'll understand that NC doesnt have a lot of swing voters despite being a swing state. Hence the smaller swings after the conventions etc.
 Wouldnt be shocked one bit if Obama leads by 10 in Minnesota, down 5 in Montana and other polls have him up 8-10 in places like NH, CO, NV

[Lief 🗽]

LOL, PPP definitely oversold these polls. Still, any sort of Obama lead in NC in September is terrible news for Mitt Romney.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Yeah, I was definitely fearing that these polls were going to show the fundamentals of this race had changed. Glad that isn't the case. By PPP standards, this is not bad for team Romney. We're seeing the slightest of bumps for Obama in Ohio, but we're in the wake of the DNC... it's to be expected.

[Umengus]

Obama leads 49-48 in NC. They just tweeted it. Last poll 48-48 tie.

bounce

[Devils30]

I would really like to see Wisconsin, Florida right now.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, MorningInAmerica, you should definitely emigrate to Kenya in search for better economic opportunities. And if you have a son there who some day decides to run for President, let's hope nobody will question his birth certificate.

When did I question anyone's birth certificate? I was stating an honest fact about Africa. http://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/Whats_driving_Africas_growth_2601 Are you just trying to be combative and start a fight, or are you just really dumb and don't understand what I was saying to begin with? If it's the latter, don't bother clicking on the link because you won''t understand it anyway.

I can't speak for him, but I don't think he means that.  I personally went to Kenya this past March and had dreams (still have them to an extent) of moving to Kenya.  I think he was just joking about the birther movement.  At least, I hope that's the case!

I think it was a joke...

Well, yeah, it was. I should have known this wouldn't end well in the 2012 board.

[Tender Branson]

I expected more like Obama+7 in OH and Obama+3 in NC.

But "looking like 2008" probably means what PPP just released.

[Lief 🗽]

Obama is actually doing better with whites in this poll (-23%) than he did in the 2008 exit polls (-29%).

[5280]

Each day that passes by after the DNC, Obama goes down 1 pt until he reaches stagnation prior the convention.  Wisdom speaks for itself for both candidates.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Each day that passes by after the DNC, Obama goes down 1 pt until he reaches stagnation prior the convention.  Wisdom speaks for itself for both candidates.

What stagnation are you talking about?

[5280]

Each day that passes by after the DNC, Obama goes down 1 pt until he reaches stagnation prior the convention.  Wisdom speaks for itself for both candidates.

What stagnation are you talking about?

He'll go up down a point or two from prior to the DNC based on approval and disapproval numbers.

[Tender Branson]

Entered them to the database.

But isn't it a little bit odd that pollsters refuse to include Gary Johnson in their polls when he's actually on the ballot in NC ? A previous Zogby poll has shown that Johnson could take away about 2-3% from Romney in the state.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

But isn't it a little bit odd that pollsters refuse to include Gary Johnson in their polls when he's actually on the ballot in NC ? A previous Zogby poll has shown that Johnson could take away about 2-3% from Romney in the state.

No, it's not odd when you consider the historical pattern of Libertarian polling.  They always vastly overpoll, with the margin narrowing as Election Day nears, and on Election Day they get considerably less than the margin of error that the polls have.  Most third party responses in polls come from people who don't like either major party choice and thus the response should be interpreted in that fashion.  By and large, those people either vote for one of the two major parties come Election Day or they stay home.

So by asking a longer question that slows down the poll and increases the chance of being hung up on, all a pollster gets is statistical noise.  For a few states such as New Mexico (Johnson) and Virginia (Goode) it is worth asking about them, if only to check if they actually have a shot at doing better than the MoE.

[Niemeyerite]

Obama leads 49-48 in NC. They just tweeted it. Last poll 48-48 tie.

bounce

Hey, Umengus, don't you want to talk about the partisan ID of the poll?

[pepper11]

What is everyone going nuts about. He gained a point in NC and 2 in Ohio, at the height of his convention bounce. I think PPP got ahead of themselves based on nigh one numbers. Based on that, Romney probably did much better nights two and three

[pbrower2a]

What is everyone going nuts about. He gained a point in NC and 2 in Ohio, at the height of his convention bounce. I think PPP got ahead of themselves based on nigh one numbers. Based on that, Romney probably did much better nights two and three

North Carolina and Ohio may be close to max-out conditions to President Obama at this point, parallel to Indiana in 2008. Whether these gains can last is indeterminate.

We need remember that Bill Clinton came close to stealing the show at the Democratic Convention. Many Americans look fondly upon the Clinton era, a time before the political disaster of 2001-2008. I have yet to believe that Bill Clinton was a great President, but I also recognize that he got oodles of votes that seem off limits to the current President. Clinton twice won five states in an arc from Louisiana to West Virginia -- states that Barack Obama lost by huge margins (10%+) in 2008. Clinton won Missouri twice, and Obama barely lost it -- and southern Missouri is much like West Virginia. The difference between Barack Obama winning Missouri and losing it is that President Obama fared badly in the part of Missouri more like West Virginia than like Iowa.

It has been hard to see how President Obama could pick up the Clinton-but-not-Obama vote... but Bill Clinton may be make more of a difference in states that have been considered off the table.

[MorningInAmerica]

What is everyone going nuts about. He gained a point in NC and 2 in Ohio, at the height of his convention bounce. I think PPP got ahead of themselves based on nigh one numbers. Based on that, Romney probably did much better nights two and three

That's actually what I'm thinking. Based on PPPs tweets from late Friday, early Saturday, it's hard to believe they'd be talking up a 5 point lead like that. I'm thinking Friday and maybe some of Saturday responses looked really strong for Obama, and perhaps Sunday was strong for Romney.

Edited to note the Party ID of that NC poll is D+13 (47/34/20%). Was D+11 in 2008, and R+1 in 2004. Also, PPP had Obama leading Romney by a larger margin than this (49-46%) as recently as ONE month ago. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nc/north_carolina_romney_vs_obama-1784.html