NM-Research & Polling Inc./Albuquerque Journal: Obama+5

[Tender Branson]

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http://www.abqjournal.com/main/2012/09/09/news/nm-presidential-race-close.html

[Tender Branson]

Research & Polling Inc. is not a good pollster:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nm/new_mexico_mccain_vs_obama-448.html

Either that, or in general NM polls tend to underestimate Obama.

[Franzl]

I somehow doubt New Mexico is currently at the national average or so.

[Earthling]

I somehow doubt New Mexico is currently at the national average or so.

Look at the polls from 4 years ago. Most polls were well off, apart from PPP. Apparently New Mexico is hard to poll.

[pbrower2a]

I somehow doubt New Mexico is currently at the national average or so.

Look at the polls from 4 years ago. Most polls were well off, apart from PPP. Apparently New Mexico is hard to poll.

Large Mexican-American and Native-American populations. PPP may have taken that into account.

Obama+5 is on the margin of contention at this stage. It's probably too late for the Romney campaign to come up with any ads in Apache or Zuni at this late time in the race. Obama probably has the state locked up.   

[Skill and Chance]

I think this confirms that Johnson is more trouble for Obama in the SW.  It's a good thing he's from NM and not CO or NV.

[MaxQue]

Problem with this poll.
Obama actually won the area named Northwest in 2008. No way he is back like that ths year there.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Problem with this poll.
Obama actually won the area named Northwest in 2008. No way he is back like that ths year there.

The Northwest is significantly more Native American than New Mexico as a whole.  New Mexico as a whole is 9% Native American, while those three counties collectively are 49% Native American.  I think it is safe to say this pollster likely missed a huge chunk of the Native American population.

[Eraserhead]

Yeah, whatever. New Mexico isn't going to be close.