Rank the 9 swing states from Lean Obama to lean Romney. Tough.
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  Rank the 9 swing states from Lean Obama to lean Romney. Tough. 		« previous next »
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Author Topic: Rank the 9 swing states from Lean Obama to lean Romney. Tough.  (Read 2927 times)
User157088589849
BlondeArtisit
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« on: September 03, 2012, 05:11:30 PM »
Think its really hard to list them 1-9. but heres mine the 9 states being Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, nevada, new hampshire, iowa, wisconsin, north carolina.

Lean Obama
1 Nevada
2 New Hampshire
3 Wisconsin
4 Virginia
5 Ohio
6 Colorado
7 Iowa
8 Florida
9 North Carolina
Lean Romney
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koenkai
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« Reply #1 on: September 03, 2012, 05:13:08 PM »
Lean Obama
1 Nevada
2 Ohio
3 New Hampshire
4 Virginia
5 Colorado
6 Wisconsin
7 Iowa
8 Florida
9 North Carolina
Lean Romney
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opebo
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« Reply #2 on: September 03, 2012, 05:15:09 PM »
Lean Obama
1 Nevada
2 New Hampshire
3 Virginia
4 Ohio
5 Colorado
6 Florida
7 Iowa
8 Wisconsin
9 North Carolina
Lean Romney
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xavier110
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« Reply #3 on: September 03, 2012, 05:15:21 PM »
1. Nevada
2. New Hampshire
3. Ohio
4. Colorado
5. Virginia
6. Wisconsin
7. Florida
8. Iowa
9. North Carolina
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morgieb
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« Reply #4 on: September 03, 2012, 05:15:55 PM »
Nevada
Ohio
Virginia
Wisconsin
Iowa
New Hampshire
Colorado
Florida
North Carolina
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JFK-Democrat
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« Reply #5 on: September 03, 2012, 05:17:21 PM »
I agree with Xavier110
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Thomas D
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« Reply #6 on: September 03, 2012, 05:19:14 PM »
Lean Obama
1 Nevada
2 New Hampshire
3 Virginia
4 Colorado
5 Ohio
6 Wisconsin
7 Iowa
8 Florida
9 North Carolina
Lean Romney
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #7 on: September 03, 2012, 05:24:35 PM »
« Edited: September 03, 2012, 05:53:34 PM by Invisible Voter »
Nevada
New Hampshire
(gap)
Wisconsin
Ohio
Colorado
Virginia
Iowa
Florida
(gap)
North Carolina
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Donerail
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« Reply #8 on: September 03, 2012, 05:28:00 PM »
Lean Obama
New Hampshire
Nevada
Wisconsin
-gap-
Ohio
Iowa
Colorado
Virginia
Florida
North Carolina
-gap-
Missouri
Indiana
Arizona
Montana
Lean Romney
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pepper11
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« Reply #9 on: September 03, 2012, 05:36:36 PM »
Nevada
New Hampshire
Ohio
Virginia
Colorado
Wisconsin
Iowa
Florida
North Carolina

And interestingly, Romney doesn't need Ohio if he gets those that are more favorable than it.
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Warren 4 Secretary of Everything
Clinton1996
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« Reply #10 on: September 03, 2012, 05:49:24 PM »
Nevada
New Hampshire
Ohio
Virginia
Wisconsin
Colorado
Iowa
Florida
North Carolina
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J. J.
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« Reply #11 on: September 03, 2012, 06:00:30 PM »

Lean Obama
1 Nevada
2 Colorado
3 Virginia
4 New Hampshire
5 Iowa
6 Ohio
7 Wisconsin
8 Florida
9 North Carolina
Lean Romney
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #12 on: September 03, 2012, 06:07:36 PM »
Quote from: Thomas D on September 03, 2012, 05:19:14 PM
Lean Obama
1 Nevada
2 New Hampshire
3 Virginia
4 Colorado
5 Ohio
6 Wisconsin
7 Iowa
8 Florida
9 North Carolina
Lean Romney



This.
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SPC
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« Reply #13 on: September 03, 2012, 06:09:19 PM »
Nevada
New Hampshire
Ohio
Virginia
Colorado
Iowa
Wisconsin
Florida
North Carolina
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #14 on: September 03, 2012, 06:16:43 PM »
« Edited: September 03, 2012, 06:22:07 PM by AWallTEP81 »
LEAN OBAMA
Nevada: 54-45 Obama
New Hampshire: 53 - 46 Obama
Colorado: 53-46 Obama
Wisconsin: 52.5-46.5 Obama
Ohio: 52-47 Obama
Virginia: 51.5-47.5 Obama
Iowa: 51.5-47.5 Obama
Florida: 50.5-48.5 Obama
North Carolina: 51-48 Romney
LEAN ROMNEY
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Devils30
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« Reply #15 on: September 03, 2012, 06:17:55 PM »
Nevada
New Hampshire
Colorado
Virginia
Wisconsin
Ohio
Iowa
Florida
North Carolina
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angus
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« Reply #16 on: September 03, 2012, 06:30:12 PM »
Taking RCP three-poll averages, they are like this:

New Hampshire   +3.5
Nevada   +3.3
Colorado  +1.6
Ohio    +1.4
Wisconsin   +1.4
Florida   +1.0
Virginia   +0.6
Iowa   +0.2
North Carolina  -2.0

where the positive numbers means Obama leads, negative means Romney leads.  Some of these go back over a month, though.  If we discount data older than the Ryan announcement (August 12), then it goes something like this:

New Hampshire   +6.0
Nevada   +3.5
Colorado  +3.5
Iowa   +2.0
Ohio    +1.4
Florida   +1.0
Virginia   +0.6
Wisconsin   +0.6
North Carolina  -2.0

I'm just going through and discounting anything collected before August 12, using RCP data on their website.  Some have only one data point, and for NH I couldn't find anything later than August 12, so I just used the latest available (PPP, August 9 - 12).
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Beet
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« Reply #17 on: September 03, 2012, 07:48:11 PM »
The Bid-Ask spreads for Romney on Intrade suggest an ordering as follows:

Nevada [35.2 / 38.5 ]
New Hampshire [ 32.5 / 39.8 ]
Wisconsin [38.0 / 42.0 ]
Colorado [38.1 / 44.2 ]
Ohio [40.3 / 43.4 ]
Iowa [34.0 / 54.9 ]
Virginia [43.8 / 49.4 ]
Florida [51.1 / 54.0 ]
North Carolina [68.1 / 70.0 ]
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Vosem
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« Reply #18 on: September 03, 2012, 08:55:42 PM »
Lean Obama
Nevada
New Hampshire
Virginia
Ohio
Colorado
Wisconsin
Iowa
Florida
North Carolina
Lean Romney

Hardest to order were Ohio-Colorado and Virginia-New Hampshire...
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20RP12
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« Reply #19 on: September 03, 2012, 09:00:58 PM »
Lean Obama

New Hampshire
Nevada
Virginia
Iowa
Colorado
Wisconsin
Florida
Ohio
North Carolina

Lean Romney
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koenkai
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« Reply #20 on: September 03, 2012, 10:22:01 PM »
Why does nobody have any faith in us? Sad
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Snowstalker Mk. II
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« Reply #21 on: September 03, 2012, 10:51:01 PM »
1. Nevada
2. Wisconsin
3. Ohio
4. New Hampshire
5. Colorado
6. Iowa
7. Virginia
8. Florida
9. North Carolina
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Reds4
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« Reply #22 on: September 03, 2012, 11:31:07 PM »
Lean Obama
Nevada
New Hampshire
Colorado
Ohio
Virginia
Wisconsin
Iowa
Florida
North Carolina
Lean Romney
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #23 on: September 03, 2012, 11:36:16 PM »
There seems to be a bit of a consensus...
- NH and NV are Obama's best states
- NC and FL are Romney's best states
- OH has a bit of an Obama lean
- IA, CO, and VA are in the middle
- WI is a bit of a wild-card
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Sbane
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« Reply #24 on: September 03, 2012, 11:41:47 PM »
I think Obama's position in Ohio is being overestimated. At the same time his position in Colorado and Wisconsin is being underestimated. Yes, Ryan has put Wisconsin in play but let's not go crazy.
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