At this point in time, I'd declare Romney the very slight favorite. But a lot of things could change. If Obama still keeps his +1.5% average in the polls by the third week of September, Obama would be very well the favorite. Largely because I think Romney's net convention bounce will be around 2%.
Also, I suspect the stock market will probably tank a little in September/October. Not enough to make a huge impact, but probably enough to push Romney over the edge.
Of course, if neither of these happen, Obama is probably winning.
How is he the slight favorite? Obama's ahead of Romney in Ohio and Virginia. If Romney can't win them, he's done.
