Obama will lose the election

[King]

This has been a very apathetic election and Romney's numbers always go up with the apathy.  Frankly, I can't see us one week out from a Presidential election and it still being this way.   In my eyes, Mitt Romney just isn't a candidate who wins a national election when people are actually paying attention.

Stats on jobs and such are not going to decide this race.  If you think they are, you know economics but you don't know people. 95% of voters on election day are going to be employed or on social security.  Votes are emotional.  

Swing voters are not the unemployed, they are the uninvolved.   They do not know the jobs reports of the last 12 months.  They do not study any of this.  They are not watching the Republican National Convention.  They are not watching the Democratic National Convention.

They will tune in mid October, watch a few ads during football games, and one of the debates at random and see that Mitt Romney is pretty smurfing weird and Barack Obama is still cool and also the President.  They will vote for the President.

I've never supported a losing candidate and unless the America I know has changed, I still won't.  Obama will have two terms.

[King]

Also the big claim on Kerry was that he could go toe to toe on foreign policy with Bush because of his credentials.  That's like Romney and the economy.  Except with even less charisma and likability.

[King]

If one looks at the conference board consumer confidence.

The Aug 2012 reading is 60.6. Jan-Aug 2012 averge is 65.5
The Aug 2008 reading is 58.6. Jan-Aug 2008 averge is 64.0
The Aug 2004 reading is 98.7. Jan-Aug 2004 averge is 96.0
The Aug 2000 reading is 140.8. Jan-Aug 2000 averge is 141.0
The Aug 1996 reading is 112.0. Jan-Aug 1996 averge is 101.53
The Aug 1992 reading is 59.0 Jan-Aug 1992 averge is 60.47
The Aug 1988 reading is 119.7 Jan-Aug 1988 averge is 115.29
The Aug 1984 reading is 103.1. Jan-Aug 1984 averge is 103.28
The Aug 1980 reading is 70.8. Jan-Aug 1980 averge is 69.36
The Aug 1976 reading is 94.6. Jan-Aug 1976 averge is 94.6
The Aug 1972 reading is 104.1. Jan-Aug 1972 averge is 97.93
The Aug 1968 reading is 131.3. Jan-Aug 1968 averge is 134.13

2012 is looking a lot like 1980 and 1992.  It does not look like 2004 and for
sure not 1984. It will be slightly better than 2010.  But
over the last few months this index has been trending down and could get worse
as food prices continue to surge.

The Aug 2012 reading is 53.2. Jan-Aug 2010 averge is 54.2

And when the numbers were at their 140 peak, the incumbent party lost both times.  An economy good or bad does not make up for a poor candidate

[King]

You know your candidate is bad when you're counting on economic conditions to deteriorate for him to win.

Just like Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton.

Considering you're a big follower of finding parallels with the Gallup poll, I'd think you'd know that Reagan and Clinton had double digit leads on their incumbent opponents in the summer of the respective years.  Add in that the third party candidate in both cases like would have/did break for the challenger, and you'll see Obama is doing much stronger than Carter or Bush Sr at this point.

[King]

You know your candidate is bad when you're counting on economic conditions to deteriorate for him to win.

Just like Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton.

Considering you're a big follower of finding parallels with the Gallup poll, I'd think you'd know that Reagan and Clinton had double digit leads on their incumbent opponents in the summer of the respective years.  Add in that the third party candidate in both cases like would have/did break for the challenger, and you'll see Obama is doing much stronger than Carter or Bush Sr at this point.

I'm actually looking at approval numbers, as opposed to the horse race number.

Which is cherrypicking.  If your matching of Gallup numbers holds any sort of weight, it needs to show a relationship with the actual election results.  In the case of Obama-Carter and Obama-Bush on approvals, the challenger ran far ahead of the President when approval ratings were at a certain level. 

Your hypothesis is that Romney will win on Obama's unpopularity because Reagan and Clinton did.  Your hypothesis fails because the data suggests Reagan and Clinton did not simply win on incumbent unpopularity and, in fact, ran far ahead of the disapproval rating, even beating the incumbent during times of positive approval, while Romney just muddles along.