I spent a long time thinking Obama would prevail, but I'm starting to legitimately believe, like you, that Obama will lose reelection.
He needs some good news, and economic indications suggest he may not be getting a good jobs report before the election. Americans don't seem to be too big on either candidate - Obama's charismatic appeal back in 2008 won't exactly be there this time around, as he has an actual record, not just campaign promises and some Senate votes.
I pretty much agree with your assessment on how the election will go down, except I think Virginia will go for Romney. I expect Romney to be ahead by 1-2 points on election day and overall somewhat favored to win, similar to what I believe Bush was in 2004 (I was only 10, so my memory isn't great), but I believe a lot of states will narrowly break for him over the President.
"Likely voter" is the floor for President Obama, barring a late collapse. You can be sure that the Obama campaign is going to do everything possible to get the D-leaning, not-so-likely voters registered and voting. There is just no untapped group of R-leaning voters in America.
Obama 332
Undecidable 52
Romney 150
