Obama will lose the election

[Sbane]

I have always felt Romney has a better chance than current polls might indicate. I don't subscribe to the whole "undecideds swing to the challenger" argument but such mass swings can happen. I think Obama needs to give a lot of these voters a reason to vote for him or they will stay home or reluctantly vote for Romney. If Romney does get elected he will have a very hard time. He will have basically no political capital, Democrats pissed after the antics of the Republican party in the last four years, and most importantly policies he has to favor due to the hard right stance of the Republicans but which has no broad based support amongst Americans.

[Sbane]

I'm looking historically, not at the convention.  Obama numbers are significantly lower than GW Bush (2004), Clinton (1996), and Reagan (1984) at this point in the cycle.  Is it too low to win?  Well, maybe or maybe not.  I won't be looking until after the convention.

Is it really significantly lower than Bush? I doubt it is even lower than Bush to begin with. The difference is that Obama has a lot of downside possibilities while Bush didn't face that problem. If the economy stays fine, and we get 100k+ jobs numbers, Obama will win. I just don't know if that will continue.