Obama will lose the election

[ucscgaldamez]

I have been following the race closely and I have concluded that Romney will win the election unless some dramatic event unfolds and painting him as a rich plutocrat who doesn't relate to you will simply not cut it.

There is a lot of job anxiety out there and the economy headlines is not what Obama would like to see. I think Romney through the debates and the convention will convince enough swing voters to vote for him in states like Ohio, Colorado, Iowa, and New Hampshire. Florida will vote by 3-4% for Romney. I see Obama holding Nevada and Virginia.  In the next few days we will see Romney leading Obama by 3% in LV models and even after the Obama convention, I don't see Obama getting much of a bump. The debates will likely seal Obama's fate and the election will finally settle at 50.5-49% for Romney.

There is not much enthusiasm for Obama. Even Obama supporters know that. Turnout will benefit Republicans in swing states and it will be enough to overcome Obama's ground game. Voter registration is lacking and the Obama campaign knows that as well.

I was hoping Obama would have switched Biden for Clinton as that would have given Democrats the enthusiasm needed to go out and vote for Obama. Democrats dislike Romney but wouldn't say they hate him as much as Bush.  I will still vote for Obama and hope that things turn around. But the fact is: He had four years and people don't really see much improvement in their lives. They are willing to give Romney a chance but I also think they won't much have much patience for him either. I don't personally see him doing much for this country. I also think he will be a one term president. It won't take long for people to dislike him as they did to Bush. Even now, people don't particularly like him.

It makes me think whether Democrats should have chosen Clinton instead. : )

[ucscgaldamez]

I still feel Obama will lose the election. I know they had a more successful convention. However, the turnout he needs will not be there on Nov 6th. He will lose narrowly. In some states, he will lose by less than 1%. I think undecided voters will break for Romney 2-1.

[ucscgaldamez]

I don't know what to think anymore. Polls point to an Obama win yet I get the sense that Republicans will have a higher than expected turnout in Ohio and Colorado. Before I was sure Obama would lose, now, I don't know what will happen.