Obama will lose the election

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

The economy will have to probably deteriorate for him to lose. The problem is, the Republican Party is about to face a structural deficit of sorts with the demographics of this country. The party is getting whiter and the country is not. Bush got 45% of the hispanic vote in 2004 and now we're talking about the GOP getting 30% now. If the Democrats lock up the hispanics like they have the blacks, things will have to be awful for the GOP to win an election.

Right now, Obama can point to job and economic growth, to no credit of his own, but he can still claim it, and that will sway some voters. I think if Romney is able to hammer home on the economic conditions while not letting Obama distract us from the real issues at hand, and the tea party keeps their mouths shut and the GOP strays away from hating on the gays and whining about abortion, Romney could win. But a lot of people are supported by the government now, and they won't vote for the guy that is paying them. It's a fact.

I still view Obama has the favorite though. He should be down big right now and he isn't, which is not a good sign for Romney given he has outspent the president.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

The party isn't getting whiter. There are more important faces of color at this convention than ever before (ie not just tokens).

The country is getting less white though so the party that has always been the racist party in the modern era will lose some ground.

And the economy is deteriorated. And why should Romney be ahead after all the reasons you listed suggesting why he shouldn't? 

Their elected body is not whiter but they are losing with minority voters. One could argue Obama being black is a big reason for it, and it could be true, but no one can argue the GOP is improving their standing with the hispanics and blacks.