Obama will lose the election

[J. J.]

The party isn't getting whiter. There are more important faces of color at this convention than ever before (ie not just tokens).

The country is getting less white though so the party that has always been the racist party in the modern era will lose some ground.

Or politics will transcend race.  One of the things that can be said by former Obama voters is, "I can't be racist because I voted for Obama in 2008."  Of course, you can be, but that might be how a lot of people see it.

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If this becomes a job performance election, Obama loses.

[J. J.]

I'm looking historically, not at the convention.  Obama numbers are significantly lower than GW Bush (2004), Clinton (1996), and Reagan (1984) at this point in the cycle.  Is it too low to win?  Well, maybe or maybe not.  I won't be looking until after the convention.

[J. J.]

I'm looking historically, not at the convention.  Obama numbers are significantly lower than GW Bush (2004), Clinton (1996), and Reagan (1984) at this point in the cycle.  Is it too low to win?  Well, maybe or maybe not.  I won't be looking until after the convention.

Is it really significantly lower than Bush? I doubt it is even lower than Bush to begin with. The difference is that Obama has a lot of downside possibilities while Bush didn't face that problem. If the economy stays fine, and we get 100k+ jobs numbers, Obama will win. I just don't know if that will continue.

I'm doing Gallup to Gallup.  Obama had 46% last week; Bush was at 51%.  Further, Obama has been lower than Bush since late May.

[J. J.]

You know your candidate is bad when you're counting on economic conditions to deteriorate for him to win.

Just like Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton.

[J. J.]

Unemployment was on its way down in 1992; in 1980, UE and Inflation were on the way down as well. Clinton and Reagan won because they were slick politicians that were able to tap into the national mood (which lagged behind economic indicators). Romney is not a slick campaigner and he has shown himself to be ineffective at being the candidate that "understands the plight of the voters" like Obama has.

Unemployment:  Both were up over preceding year and unemployment only had a slight decline in October 1992; it would not have been reported by election day.

Inflation:  It peaked in 1980, but it was still higher on election day than the year before.

We also had a misery index that was higher than any point during the preceding year.

Check here:  http://www.miseryindex.us/

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No, the consensus there is no recovery and that there never was a "summer of recovery."  I'm quoting Joe Biden, from two summers ago.

The waning days of summer are getting shorter; the days for an Obama recovery are getting shorter as well.

[J. J.]

You know your candidate is bad when you're counting on economic conditions to deteriorate for him to win.

Just like Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton.

Considering you're a big follower of finding parallels with the Gallup poll, I'd think you'd know that Reagan and Clinton had double digit leads on their incumbent opponents in the summer of the respective years.  Add in that the third party candidate in both cases like would have/did break for the challenger, and you'll see Obama is doing much stronger than Carter or Bush Sr at this point.

I'm actually looking at approval numbers, as opposed to the horse race number.

[J. J.]

Which is cherrypicking.  If your matching of Gallup numbers holds any sort of weight, it needs to show a relationship with the actual election results.  In the case of Obama-Carter and Obama-Bush on approvals, the challenger ran far ahead of the President when approval ratings were at a certain level. 

Well, we do know the election results.

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The only hypothesis that I have put forward regarding approval numbers was that Obama's numbers would slide, hit a bottom point, and then rebound.  They did in the fall of last year.

Here, I simply make a comparison of the relative strength of Obama, versus presidents that were re-elected.

[J. J.]

You have those hack goggles fused so hard onto your eyes, you couldn't see through them even on a bright sunny 110F day in Arizona in the middle of July.
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Yawn...who cares what you think? Certainly not me. Do yourself a favor and *calm down* pal.
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It's the Democrats that in full panic mode.  I remember how they were convinced that Ryan was a terrible choice.