PPP/DailyKos/SEIU - Obama 49% Romney 45%

[MorningInAmerica]

This is Obama's largest lead over Romney on this poll since their June 14-17th poll, when it was again Obama 49%, Romney 45%.

http://elections.dailykos.com/weeklypolling/2012/8/16

Obama leads with Indy's by 11 (50-39%), AND men (48-47%). The lead with men seems odd.

Also, Paul Ryan's favorability rating is negative, at 41/43%. But at the same time, 41% say the pick make them MORE excited about voting in the fall, with 20% saying it makes them less excited.

Obama's job approval rating is at -5, 45/50%.

Support for Paul Ryan's medicare plan stands at 36/45%

The party ID of the sample is 35/35/30, which leads you to believe that Obama's lead is coming solely from Indys (since they are essentially attracting the same portions of members of their own party).

[pbrower2a]

If anything really changed  we would be shocked. The mark of this electoral season is its stability. Much of what we thought would be a disaster for either Obama or for Romney hasn't shown as such -- yet.

OK, the economy is putrid... but it is stable. There is no speculative boom so there is no reasonable chance of another economic meltdown unless someone does something stupid with the money supply. The Obama administration has had no major scandals.  Time is running out for these. On the other side, Mitt Romney has none of the conventional disqualifiers working against him -- no "live boy or dead woman". 

Time is running out for scandals that would ruin either Presidential campaign.  To be sure the incumbent is more vulnerable on the overall economy than is the challenger... but time is running out for that.

President Obama has been consistent. He has legitimate achievements through legislation that, even if they offend 45% of the public, aren't going to become more offensive. His foreign policy is a return to the Bush I/Clinton norm, and that's not how one gets into trouble.   

Many Republicans would like to see a near-replay of 1980 with Obama as the new Jimmy Carter... but that just isn't happening. Carter had almost no legislative achievements; his foreign policy was "talk tough but carry a brittle stick"; he tried to get people to lower their expectations but failed at it.   

A 50-50 split of the undecided probably results in President Obama winning 52% of the popular vote and about 330 electoral votes. Does that sound reasonable? Not really. For reasons that I will show in a new thread, I see him winning over 355 electoral votes or fewer than 310.