Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here

[Fuzzybigfoot]

According to a KING 5 poll, Obama is up 10 in WA-1.  This poll was from a month ago, but I haven't seen any since.  

http://www.king5.com/news/local/KING-5-poll-TV-commercials-boost-DelBene-163966816.html


It's at the very bottom of the article.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Here's a map for the districts polled:




Sue me if I don't use the latest poll for WA-1, but the district was basically +15% Obama in 2008 so I highly doubt it will be tied this time.   So I went with the PPP poll instead, which was 50%-40% in Obama's favor (which makes a lots more sense considering what the statewide polls are saying).

[Fuzzybigfoot]

We need moar polls!!!

[Fuzzybigfoot]

We need moar polls!!!

Here they are:

NY-11 (Siena)

49-45 Obama

Was 50-48 McCain in 2008.

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/sri/11th%20CD%20September%202012%20Poll%20Release%201%20--%20FINAL.pdf

Wow, so Obama could actually win Staten Island?  Dude.  



Edit: The map has been updated.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Here you have, fuzzy:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=160026.0

IL-08: Obama 53 Romney 40.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Does anyone have that poll for NE-2 which came out a few days ago?

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Thanks guys, the map has been updated. 

[Fuzzybigfoot]

NJ-02 (Stockton):

57-35 Obama

http://intraweb.stockton.edu/eyos/hughescenter/content/docs/Stockton%20Polling%20Institute%20-%20CD2-2012sept.pdf

How did this district vote in 2008 ?

It was only about +8% Obama in 2008:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Av8O-dN2giY6dGtYTV8xS2hHcXJnX0pOZkdCU2V1N2c#gid=0

[Fuzzybigfoot]

In progress:

[Fuzzybigfoot]

So far, the polls show Romney picking up MI-1 and NY-18, while Obama flips NY-11 and FL-26.  Two Obama districts are tied (NY-1 and NE-2).

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Thanks Gass, the map has been updated.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

So let's see, Obama gains 8 in AZ-2 (flip), and 14 in NJ-2.  Romney gains 6 in NC-8.

The map has been updated.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Btw, I decided to put AZ-2 at 40% Dem to be safe. 

[Fuzzybigfoot]

This poll was released couple of weeks ago. I don't see it on your map, so I'll post it.

Siena (NY-21):

Obama 45 / Romney 40

Same poll shows Owens beating Doheny 49-36

lol sorry, I don't know how I missed that.  Thank you. 

[Fuzzybigfoot]

The last poll from NC-07 was 61-32 Romney.

The PA-12 poll out a few days ago was 51-46 Romney.

Cool, updating the map now. 

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Obama up 3 in MA-6 (48%-45%):

http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/09/young-guns-poll-tisei-leads-tierney-136922.html


And Obama's up 13 in IL-17 (54%-41%):

http://www.scribd.com/doc/107620193/IL-17-GBA-Strategies-for-Cheri-Bustos-Sept-2012

[Fuzzybigfoot]

The last poll from NC-07 was 61-32 Romney.

The PA-12 poll out a few days ago was 51-46 Romney.

Awesome, thanks.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

This poll is a bit dusty, from July, but its still seems realistic. Romney was up 53-45 in KY-06.

Thanks, the map has been updated.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

I wish we could get some polls from Ohio.  

[Fuzzybigfoot]

As usual, I have a few more polls

NV-03

Obama- 47%
Romney- 46%

MI-01

Obama- 48%
Romney- 48%

FL-10

Romney- 47%
Obama- 47%

NH-01

Romney- 47%
Obama- 46%

CA-10

Obama- 47%
Romney- 46%

Excellent, thanks!

[Fuzzybigfoot]

NY-27 (Siena):

51-42 Romney

Was 53-44 McCain in 2008.

The Buffalo News/WGRZ-TV/Siena College Poll
October 1-4, 2012
633 New York State Likely Voters Congressional District 27
MOE +/- 3.9%

http://www.wgrz.com/assetpool/documents/121006105816_CD27%20October%202012%20Crosstabs.pdf

Huh, that's actually an improvement from the last poll of NY-27.  It showed Romney leading by 12 or something. 

[Fuzzybigfoot]

As usual, I have a few more polls

NV-03

Obama- 47%
Romney- 46%

MI-01

Obama- 48%
Romney- 48%

FL-10

Romney- 47%
Obama- 47%

NH-01

Romney- 47%
Obama- 46%

CA-10

Obama- 47%
Romney- 46%

These are the new districts?

Yep.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

VA-2 may have been atypically strong for McCain in Virginia because it's a naval district.

Not really, the old 2nd was 58%-42% for Bush, and it isn't all that different from the new one.



Anyways, I need to update the map!

[Fuzzybigfoot]

lol at Obama winning VA-2 but losing MN-8.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

TN-04:

56-38 Romney

http://de.scribd.com/doc/110321273/TN-04-Myers-Research-for-Eric-Stewart-Oct-2012

What was the 2008 result here ?

It was 63%-36% McCain.


Here's a link from Daily Kos on all the disticts:  http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/01/17/1051740/-Daily-Kos-Elections-complete-redistricting-resources?detail=hide