Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here (user search)
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  Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here (search mode)
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Author Topic: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here  (Read 27395 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« on: August 16, 2012, 12:50:36 PM »
PPP for DFA (CO-06):

President Barack Obama maintains a lead over GOP candidate Mitt Romney by 9 points with likely voters in Colorado’s Sixth Congressional District. The margin of error for the poll is 3.6%, making his lead well outside themargin of error.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/102957297/CO-6-Poll-numbers-8-15-12
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #1 on: August 19, 2012, 12:51:53 AM »
NY-27 (Siena):

53-41 Romney

49-40 Gillibrand

http://www.wgrz.com/assetpool/documents/120818104901_CD27%20Aug%202012%20Crosstabs.pdf
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #2 on: August 19, 2012, 12:55:11 AM »
The NYT notes that the new re-districted 27th voted for McCain by 53-44:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/03/20/nyregion/new-york-redistricting.html

The district is also 93% White.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #3 on: September 10, 2012, 01:06:16 PM »
Siena poll:

Obama leads by 50-45 in the newly drawn NY-21 district.

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/sri/CD21%20September%202012%20Crosstabs.pdf

The NYT says that Obama beat McCain by a similar 51-46 margin in this new disctrict:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/03/20/nyregion/new-york-redistricting.html
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #4 on: September 13, 2012, 01:21:47 PM »
Siena (NY-01):

47-47 Obama/Romney

2008: 51-47 Obama

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/parents_and_community/community_page/sri/sny_poll/CD01%20September%202012%20Crosstabs.pdf

Siena (NY-24):

55-36 Obama/Romney

2008: 55-41 Obama

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/parents_and_community/community_page/sri/sny_poll/CD24%20September%202012%20Crosstabs.pdf
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #5 on: September 14, 2012, 06:45:38 AM »
AZ-09/GBA Strategies (D):

President Obama leads Governor Romney here by a 50 – 44 percent margin.

Kyrsten Sinema holds a 4-point lead over Vernon Parker, 45 – 41 percent.

http://images.politico.com/global/2012/09/az09_poll_release_091312.html
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #6 on: September 18, 2012, 01:09:57 PM »
NY-18 (Siena):

49-45 Romney

Was 52-46 Obama in 2008.

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/sri/18th%20CD%20September%202012%20Poll%20Release%201%20--%20FINAL.pdf

WA-01 (SurveyUSA):

47-47 Obama/Romney

I have no clue how this district voted in 2008. Maybe it's even newly drawn.

http://www.king5.com/news/up-front/polls/KING-5-poll-Koster-has-narrow-lead-over-DelBene-in-1st-District-170117796.html
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #7 on: September 21, 2012, 06:16:24 AM »
NY-19 (Siena):

Obama+4

Was Obama+7 in 2008.

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/parents_and_community/community_page/sri/sny_poll/19th%20CD%20September%202012%20Poll%20Release%20Final.pdf
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #8 on: September 23, 2012, 12:52:32 PM »
CA-30 (SurveyUSA):

63% Obama
30% Romney
  2% Johnson

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=cfb7b7d8-1f9a-4998-8ff0-6d217daf1725

Does anyone know how this new district voted in 2008 ?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #9 on: September 25, 2012, 05:18:48 AM »

Here they are:

NY-11 (Siena)

49-45 Obama

Was 50-48 McCain in 2008.

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/sri/11th%20CD%20September%202012%20Poll%20Release%201%20--%20FINAL.pdf
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #10 on: September 25, 2012, 11:58:36 PM »
Quote from: Fuzzybigfoot on September 25, 2012, 09:21:58 PM
Does anyone have that poll for NE-2 which came out a few days ago?

44-44 tie
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #11 on: September 27, 2012, 02:32:46 PM »
NY-25 (Siena):

53-39 Obama

Was 58-40 Obama in 2008.

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/parents_and_community/community_page/sri/sny_poll/25th%20CD%20September%202012%20Poll%20Release%201%20--%20FINAL.pdf
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #12 on: September 27, 2012, 02:37:22 PM »
CA-44/SurveyUSA:

71-19-3 Obama/Romney/Johnson

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=de36efa0-bdcd-40c5-a6da-b5c007b9e7ed
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #13 on: September 28, 2012, 06:27:38 AM »
NJ-02 (Stockton):

57-35 Obama

http://intraweb.stockton.edu/eyos/hughescenter/content/docs/Stockton%20Polling%20Institute%20-%20CD2-2012sept.pdf

How did this district vote in 2008 ?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #14 on: September 28, 2012, 12:06:37 PM »
WA-06 (SurveyUSA):

54-38 Obama

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=01c49a8d-45f2-4fe7-9222-379cd55db6e4
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #15 on: October 07, 2012, 12:56:34 AM »
NY-27 (Siena):

51-42 Romney

Was 53-44 McCain in 2008.

The Buffalo News/WGRZ-TV/Siena College Poll
October 1-4, 2012
633 New York State Likely Voters Congressional District 27
MOE +/- 3.9%

http://www.wgrz.com/assetpool/documents/121006105816_CD27%20October%202012%20Crosstabs.pdf
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #16 on: October 16, 2012, 12:10:55 AM »
VA-02:



How did this vote in 2008 ?

http://www.wvec.com/news/politics/Poll-174230921.html
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #17 on: October 17, 2012, 12:41:45 PM »
TN-04:

56-38 Romney

http://de.scribd.com/doc/110321273/TN-04-Myers-Research-for-Eric-Stewart-Oct-2012

What was the 2008 result here ?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #18 on: November 01, 2012, 12:57:38 AM »
CA-52 (SurveyUSA):

48-45 Romney

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=bda34d6c-8324-4cd9-92d5-3d8a4a9bfc46&c=37

How did it vote in 2008 ?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #19 on: November 01, 2012, 01:05:17 AM »

Hmm. That's odd.

A Obama+12 result would imply a Democratic leaning district.

But the sample is actually R+7 in SUSA's poll.

Either this district has become much more Republican with Democrats staying at home, or Obama has won Indies by 2:1 there in 2008 (he is about tied there right now).

Or the poll is wrong ...
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