This map should depress Republicans

[President von Cat]

Obama, Biden - 270
Romney, Ryan - 268

Truly a dispiriting map for any Republican out there. I think its the perfect demonstration of how tough the electoral math is for the Romney ticket. But does it have any chance at all of coming true?

[Oldiesfreak1854]

I'm not sure.  I still think Romney can do it.

[RedPrometheus]

Romney has still a good shot at Florida. But Obama is also looking strong in Virginia, Wisonsin and Ohio. So it will be difficult for Romney to get to 270.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Why are you giving Republicans hope?

[You kip if you want to...]

Obama's looking stronger than he was a month or two ago in Ohio and Florida and, of course, they're the only two states that really matter.

[pinsch]

I'm not sure.  I still think Romney can do it.

So do I. 

Romney is not the buffoon that many Dems (and conservative extremists, for that matter) make him out to be.  I think that Ryan's negative impact in FL is being overstated.  Romney's a smart enough politician to realize that (1) after the dust settles, VP candidates aren't that big a deal and (2) the dire state of the economy may have sobered people up a bit, and entitlement reform may not be the "third rail" that it was when Bush43 broached it.

[Reaganfan]

I actually am inclined to believe Romney has a better shot in Florida rather than Ohio.

Romney: 273 electoral votes

Not all hope is lost.

[Vosem]

Reaganfan's map is much more realistic than kingthlayer's, if only because of Nevada, which will only vote Republican if 2012 is a giant landslide and not in a close election.

[opebo]

Reaganfan's map is much more realistic than kingthlayer's, if only because of Nevada, which will only vote Republican if 2012 is a giant landslide and not in a close election.

Correct.  Also it seems Virginia is slightly more likely to go Democratic than Florida.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Reaganfan's map is much more realistic than kingthlayer's, if only because of Nevada, which will only vote Republican if 2012 is a giant landslide and not in a close election.

Correct.  Also it seems Virginia is slightly more likely to go Democratic than Florida.

This.

[J. J.]

Or, you just flip NH.  Romney loses FL, wins those others, along with a small, neighboring state, with a population noted as being fiscally conservative, he gets 272 EV's to Obama's 266 EV's.

This is a race where OH, VA, and FL, individually, may not make a difference.

[Lambsbread]

A couple scenarios in which Romney could win (some are completely hackish):

Romney/Ryan - 311 EVs
Obama/Biden - 227 EVs

Romney/Ryan - 278 EVs
Obama/Biden - 260 EVs

Romney/Ryan - 273 EVs
Obama/Biden - 265 EVs

Romney/Ryan - 275 EVs
Obama/Biden - 263 EVs

Romney/Ryan - 279 EVs
Obama/Biden - 259 EVs

Romney/Ryan - 276 EVs
Obama/Biden - 262 EVs

[DrScholl]

This is more plausible for a very narrow win for Obama.

Obama 272
Romney 266

And this point, Romney's most likely scenario for a win is this.

That is a map that leaves very little room for error.

[Likely Voter]

This is the one that probably scares the $#!* out of the Romney campaign.

Romney wins close PV, picks up six Obama states including both FL and OH...but loses VA due to being Nadered by Goode

Obama: 270
Romney: 268

[pbrower2a]

Missouri has just shown two polls in which Mitt Romney has a +1 lead.

[The Mikado]

This is the one that probably scares the $#!* out of the Romney campaign.

Romney wins close PV, picks up six Obama states including both FL and OH...but loses VA due to being Nadered by Goode

Obama: 270
Romney: 268

And one of Obama's electors gets really, really sick on voting day and doesn't make it.  The election, at 269-268, goes to the House, where we end up with a Romney-Biden Administration.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Obama-370
Romney-168


Now this map would
make Republicans cry.

[Lambsbread]

No, this map is just stupid.


Obama-370
Romney-168


Now this map would
make Republicans cry.

[Vosem]

Obama-370
Romney-168


Now this map would
make Republicans cry.

...but it won't happen. A Romney landslide is rather likelier than an Obama landslide (though a narrow Obama victory is probaby the single likeliest scenario at this point).

[pepper11]

This quote should depress Democrats

From the new Purple Strategies polling

On Medicare...

"although in Florida, the view of how the two tickets would fare on that front is a tie, with 11 percent undecided)."

[The Mikado]

Obama-370
Romney-168


Now this map would
make Republicans cry.

...This board is terrible.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

This quote should depress Democrats

From the new Purple Strategies polling

On Medicare...

"although in Florida, the view of how the two tickets would fare on that front is a tie, with 11 percent undecided)."

1. The campaigns haven't really started hitting this yet.
2. There's no reason to think Purple Strategies is a good pollster. Their track record is literally nonexistent.

[tmthforu94]

Nevada won't vote for Romney unless Romney has already won.

Romney pretty much needs Ohio, Virginia, and Florida. I think if he win's these three, he's doing well enough across the board to win the election.

Narrow Romney win: 272-266. If you told me Romney win's on election night with under 280 EV's, this is what I would guess it to be.

[President von Cat]

In defense of my own map, it shows that Obama can lose virtually every swing state due to the swag and "enthusiasm" that Paul Ryan will bring to the ticket. However, if Ryan's proves to be an albatross in Florida, Obama can still win the minimum 270 votes with the state - and without NV, CO, WI, IA, OH, VA, and NC. Its not the most accurate, but it is the most depressing.

This quote should depress Democrats

From the new Purple Strategies polling

On Medicare...

"although in Florida, the view of how the two tickets would fare on that front is a tie, with 11 percent undecided)."

Not sure what is so depressing about that, we are only at the outset of the attacks on Romney's plan. Suggests plenty of room for growth, and Republicans never have the public trust for long when it comes to these kind of reforms. Plus that poll does not specify who answered the question - what will matter most is seniors, and I guarantee they will be much more sensitive to the question than some 18 year old.