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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginiá)
  Which solid/lean D states do you see trending R?
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Question: Which solid/lean D states do you see trending R?
#1
Iowa
 
#2
Michigan
 
#3
Minnesota
 
#4
New Hampshire
 
#5
New Jersey
 
#6
Ohio
 
#7
Oregon
 
#8
Wisconsin
 
#9
Washington
 
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Total Voters: 29

Author Topic: Which solid/lean D states do you see trending R?  (Read 1203 times)
5280
MagneticFree
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« on: August 26, 2012, 07:23:25 pm »

Which solid/lean D states do you see trending R? Explain your vote.
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Supersonic
SupersonicVenue
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« Reply #1 on: August 26, 2012, 07:29:34 pm »

Iowa and Wisconsin will trend Republican in the short term.

New Jersey, Minnesota and Michigan will in the long term.

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Talleyrand
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« Reply #2 on: August 26, 2012, 07:35:16 pm »

The most obvious one is Wisconsin. Rural areas are moving further and further to the right, and Madison's growth is not strong enough to combat that. The state elected a GOP legislature strongly in 2010, along with a GOP Senator and Governor. They also nabbed every constitutional office besides Auditor. This year, they reelected a polarizing, though not unpopular Governor by a larger margin than 2010 and look ready to get another Republican Senator, going from two Democratic Senators to two Republican Senators in just two years. Both the congressional seats they nabbed look solid as well. Romney is also very competitive in the state. Some of his advisers see it as an easier win than Ohio, in fact, according to Politico.

I also see all these trending red in the long-term except NH, Oregon, and Washington, but Wisconsin's the most obvious.
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Priest of Moloch
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« Reply #3 on: August 26, 2012, 07:57:02 pm »

New Jersey and Michigan, if we're speaking long-term.
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koenkai
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« Reply #4 on: August 26, 2012, 08:00:59 pm »

I don't why people think New Jersey will trend Republican. If anything, it's trending even farther away from the Republican Party.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/14/in-blue-new-jersey-red-spots-may-be-sign-of-the-past/

Anyways, from that list, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, and Wisconsin will continue trending Republican.

New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oregon, and Washington will continue to become more Democratic.
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5280
MagneticFree
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« Reply #5 on: August 26, 2012, 09:32:55 pm »

The only way I see Oregon or Washington trend R, eastern Oregon and Washington make a new state. Break off from the west coast.
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"'Oeps!' De blunders van Rick Perry Indicted"
DarthNader
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« Reply #6 on: August 26, 2012, 09:49:27 pm »

Why is Ohio on this list? It's only been lean-Democratic in one contemporary election (2004) and just barely. It might be lean-D this year, but that is by no means a given.
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Miles
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« Reply #7 on: August 26, 2012, 10:11:59 pm »

The GOP strength is Wisconsin has been the most obvious in recent years.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #8 on: August 31, 2012, 05:48:35 pm »

All, except that those are all swing states (except Minnesota, Washington, and Oregon, all of which I consider "semi-swing states.") 
Why is Ohio on this list? It's only been lean-Democratic in one contemporary election (2004) and just barely. It might be lean-D this year, but that is by no means a given.
No, it wasn't.  It was as much of a toss-up as a toss-up can be.  Remember, Bush II carried it that year.
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sg0508
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« Reply #9 on: August 31, 2012, 06:55:37 pm »

Until the republicans carry WI in a presidential year, I don't consider it moving.  Partially due to late democratic surges in registration, they won the state in 2000 and 2004, respectively.

I personally think the GOP had their shots at MN, but they lost it and now, it's back to being relatively safe in the democratic column and in addition, the GOP lost both a Senate seat and the statehouse for the first time in a long time there.

I see very few states moving to the republicans simply because the party caters very little to the democratic movements in this country.
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koenkai
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« Reply #10 on: August 31, 2012, 07:14:08 pm »

Kerry carried Wisconsin by less than half a percentage point. If Bush had done 1% better in Wisconson, would that naturally mean a huge swift from Lean-D to Tossup?
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