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  Talk Elections
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  2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  Fox News: Obama 49 Romney 40 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Fox News: Obama 49 Romney 40  (Read 1493 times)
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 8,013

Political Matrix
E: -7.55, S: -8.09

« on: August 10, 2012, 06:36:51 am »

How on earth does that mathematically work when Texas and Georgia have far more population than New York and North Carolina?

In short, because the partisan slant by identification in NC & NY is stronger than that in TX and GA. As I stated, these numbers (in reference to NC & NY versus GA & TX, along with the 4,200,000 number mentioned) were compared to 2008 totals. So:

NY - Democratic 49-25: +1,850,000 D
NC - Democratic 45-32: +550,000 D

TOTAL: +2,400,000 D

TX - Republican 45-21: +1,950,000 R
GA - Republican 44-32: +475,000 R

TOTAL: +2,425,000 R

The aggregation of those 10 states, even with those North Carolina numbers, comes out to 40% D 35% R 25% I. I weighted each state by the number of house seats in the next congress.

D+5 in the Democratic half of the country is not D+9.

Whoops, you're wrong again. While it may not be D+9 nationally (never said it was), there are plenty of states on the other side that do not bode well for Republicans when it comes to self-identifying. Three of the five states with Democratic identification majorities are definitely in the Republican half of the country, with many more having net Democratic advantages.

Kentucky - Democratic 56-37
West Virginia - Democratic 54-29
Louisiana - Democratic 51-26
Oklahoma - Democratic 49-40

Arkansas - Democratic 41-31

There are only 22 states with a net Republican advantage, which is incredibly weak considering  that Republicans could never win a modern election with victories in just 22 states. It's not about "victory", though; it's about folks such as yourself learning what party affiliation means and what it doesn't mean. A D+9 sampling does not mean that the electorate is skewed in favor of national Democratic politicians by the same amount. I'd be willing to say a D+9 sample looks awfully similar in partisan comparison with a R+3 or R+4 sample.

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