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  2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  Fox News: Obama 49 Romney 40 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Fox News: Obama 49 Romney 40  (Read 1487 times)
Biden/Abrams Voter
Adam Griffin
Atlas Icon
Posts: 16,834

Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« on: August 09, 2012, 09:49:35 pm »

Not particularly in regard to this poll - but to all polls and trolls in general - I am so tired of hearing people whine about the (almost universal) inflated Democratic numbers regarding party affiliation in national polls. Take a look at this map showing the ten most populous states. The shades illustrate the margin between self-identifying Democrats and Republicans.

And here are the numbers:

CA - Democratic 44-31
FL - Democratic 41-36

GA - Republican 44-32
IL - Democratic 46-31
MI - Democratic 40-33
NY - Democratic 49-25
NC - Democratic 45-32

OH - Republican 37-36
PA - Democratic 51-37
TX - Republican 45-21

These ten states make up half of the US population. As you can clearly see, there is a significant Democratic advantage in many of these states. New York and North Carolina effectively cancel out Texas and Georgia, while Democrats in Michigan add more to the Democratic total. Oh, and then there's Pennsylvania, Illinois, Florida and California.

When comparing these numbers and projecting them upon a 2008 electorate, this would have resulted in approximately 4.2 million more Democratic voters than Republican voters among these ten states. This effect alone - on a hypothetically evenly divided electorate (party affiliation) throughout the other states - would move the national result from D=R to D+3.

While the remaining 40 states would favor Republicans somewhat more, there are obvious advantages for Democrats when it comes to increasing nominal party membership (West Virginia, North Carolina, Kentucky, Louisiana, Arkansas) and of course disadvantages (D+9 is not the inverse of R+9 when it comes to voting patterns).

Still, Democrats have a national advantage beyond the inflated numbers, one that has clearly been demonstrated in the fact that Republicans have only won the national popular vote once in the past twenty years. 
Biden/Abrams Voter
Adam Griffin
Atlas Icon
Posts: 16,834

Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #1 on: August 09, 2012, 10:21:05 pm »
« Edited: August 09, 2012, 10:24:34 pm by IDS Legislator Griffin »

How on earth does that mathematically work when Texas and Georgia have far more population than New York and North Carolina?

In short, because the partisan slant by identification in NC & NY is stronger than that in TX and GA. As I stated, these numbers (in reference to NC & NY versus GA & TX, along with the 4,200,000 number mentioned) were compared to 2008 totals. So:

NY - Democratic 49-25: +1,850,000 D
NC - Democratic 45-32: +550,000 D

TOTAL: +2,400,000 D

TX - Republican 45-21: +1,950,000 R
GA - Republican 44-32: +475,000 R

TOTAL: +2,425,000 R

The aggregation of those 10 states, even with those North Carolina numbers, comes out to 40% D 35% R 25% I. I weighted each state by the number of house seats in the next congress.

D+5 in the Democratic half of the country is not D+9.

Whoops, you're wrong again. While it may not be D+9 nationally (never said it was), there are plenty of states on the other side that do not bode well for Republicans when it comes to self-identifying. Three of the five states with Democratic identification majorities are definitely in the Republican half of the country, with many more having net Democratic advantages.

Kentucky - Democratic 56-37
West Virginia - Democratic 54-29
Louisiana - Democratic 51-26
Oklahoma - Democratic 49-40
Arkansas - Democratic 41-31

There are only 22 states with a net Republican advantage, which is incredibly weak considering  that Republicans could never win a modern election with victories in just 22 states. It's not about "victory", though; it's about folks such as yourself learning what party affiliation means and what it doesn't mean. A D+9 sampling does not mean that the electorate is skewed in favor of national Democratic politicians by the same amount. I'd be willing to say a D+9 sample looks awfully similar in partisan comparison with a R+3 or R+4 sample.
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